Model Output Discussion 26/12/15 15:35>>>· Page 13

Gooner
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 12:45:01

I don't really agree about 'average to below' if we are in a westerly regime, I think double figure maxima will still be widespread across Southern and Western areas, especially if the troughing cannot get much past the meridian.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Extended temperature forecast from BBC weather for MBY is as follows

Today 11c

Tuesday 10c

Wed 11c

Thurs 7c

Fri 5c

Sat 6c

Sun 7c

Mon 6c

Tues 5c

Wed 6c

I'm guessing this is courtesy of the Met O , which you have been backing for several days ( which is fine ), but you seem to be ignoring their current information

Edited by user 28 December 2015 12:46:50 | Reason: Not specified

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

nickl
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 12:46:25

#303

hi all - no one appears to be referencing the parallel ecm op so i'll fill you in. up till now, this has not been interested in disrupting the trough to our west/southwest, preferring to push it through the uk and then hitting the block once over the north sea. hence this model hasnt been in agreement with the current op which has conitnually been disrupting the trough in our vicinity. the 00z run finally disrupts the day 7/8 system over the uk and sinks it se. with the gfs ops trending away from disruption in the right place for the s half of the uk, it means little on its own at this juncture. however, i though it was of note in the general pendulum swinging, characteristic of a tricky situation to resolve.

i would also now be looking more closely at the ensembles as the initial disruption comes close enough for them to get a better handle on how the pattern change will affect nw europe.

Andy Woodcock
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 12:47:45

#304

0z ECM extended ensembles for London. There's still good agreement on a change to slightly colder-than-average conditions and that'll feel bitter.

For good measure, here's the 0z output for Reading. Note the median is generally colder than average from the 1st (mean max is 7.7C at Reading Uni in Jan).

wh

Originally Posted by: Retron

I hope so I really do, while such conditions will not bring snow to the majority at least it will return to our mountains, frost may occur at night and the air should be clearer and fresher.

This endless wet clagg is good for no one and if it continues I suspect by mid January most UK residents will be suffering from SAD!

Lets have some cool zonality, Christ surely that isn't too much to ask.

Andy,

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 12:55:30

#305

I don't agree with your comment you only have to look at the met forecast too see that temps here in the midlands drop to average or slightly below

given the cold pool in the North Atlantic a westerly will be much cooler than recent days here at least.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac

I am just waiting for the dread terms "the jet wins" and "the modern winter".

However things pan out, we are definitely going to shortly see the end of the mild crud, whether we get an easterly or end up with cold zonality.

New world order coming.

Snow Hoper
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:07:08

#306

Yes, the only thing that's certain is that the outlook is uncertain! There's so much hinging on any trough disruption in a few days that the rest becomes a bit academic. The best that can be said down here really is that it looks likely temperatures will fall to average or a little below, with a continuing low risk (10-20%) of something substantially colder.

Yes, and this time it could well be more evenly spread. Here in the far SE we've escaped most of it, whereas further north and west it's utterly grim the amount of rain that's fallen.

Originally Posted by: Retron

Uncertainty is the key atm. A pattern pause before Temps drop and the rest of the country joins in with what's been going on up north. Got a feeling it'll be plenty of cold rain and strong winds to top it all off unless you live on a hill up north. Keeping one eye open on the beast but I feel it'll be close but no cigar this time unfortunately.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:10:22

#307

hi all - no one appears to be referencing the parallel ecm op so i'll fill you in. up till now, this has not been interested in disrupting the trough to our west/southwest, preferring to push it through the uk and then hitting the block once over the north sea. hence this model hasnt been in agreement with the current op which has conitnually been disrupting the trough in our vicinity. the 00z run finally disrupts the day 7/8 system over the uk and sinks it se. with the gfs ops trending away from disruption in the right place for the s half of the uk, it means little on its own at this juncture. however, i though it was of note in the general pendulum swinging, characteristic of a tricky situation to resolve.

i would also now be looking more closely at the ensembles as the initial disruption comes close enough for them to get a better handle on how the pattern change will affect nw europe.

Originally Posted by: nickl

Good to see you back nick. Always an omen that colder weather may be on the way. Now all we need is Steve Murr....

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Hippydave
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:16:51

#308

Nice to see the 6z ens bringing back a few genuinely cold members - not surprising, still very much a minority option but good to see the chance is still there

As Darren mentioned on the last page given the pattern looks like hinging on how troughs disrupt in our vicinity FI is, imo, even more pointless than normal at present, be it mild or cold. See how the trough disrupts then go from there.

Oh and thank god for the ignore user posts option - makes it far easier to view the thread at times. Far better than engaging with people who appear to be on the wind up

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

Shropshire
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:21:07

#309

Extended temperature forecast from BBC weather for MBY is as follows

Today 11c

Tuesday 10c

Wed 11c

Thurs 7c

Fri 5c

Sat 6c

Sun 7c

Mon 6c

Tues 5c

Wed 6c

I'm guessing this is courtesy of the Met O , which you have been backing for several days ( which is fine ), but you seem to be ignoring their current information

Originally Posted by: Gooner

We will have to see Marcus, worth pointing out that the weekend of November 21/22 remain the coldest days of the winter season here by some margin.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:23:50

#310

We will have to see Marcus, worth pointing out that the weekend of November 21/22 remain the coldest days of the winter season here by some margin.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Inaccurate. Suffix phrase so far required.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Gooner
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:24:27

#311

We will have to see Marcus, worth pointing out that the weekend of November 21/22 remain the coldest days of the Autumn season here by some margin.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Amended for you

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Retron
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:28:11

#312

For what it's worth (which isn't much) the ECM control run this morning painted a very unsettled picture as lows move over or to the south of the UK in a series of repeated trough disruptions.

This means snow, of course, with snow across much of the UK on days 9 and 10 and another countrywide dump of snow on days 11 and 12. Thereafter the snow is restricted to northern Scotland.

Again, most unlikely to come off exactly as shown... but there remains a risk of some surprise snowfall popping up *if* we can get lows tracking over the south or to the south of the UK.

Leysdown, north Kent

Shropshire
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:30:41

#313

Good to see you back nick. Always an omen that colder weather may be on the way. Now all we need is Steve Murr....

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

What about great to see me on here ?

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

Gooner
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:33:43

#314

What about great to see me on here ?

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Why?

Who are you ? As you are new to this weather game your not really known, whereas Steve and Nick are familiar posters on here and has been for quite sometime.

I'm sure once you become established the feeling will be the same

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Robertski
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 13:40:02

#315

Why?

Who are you ? As you are new to this weather game your not really known, whereas Steve and Nick are familiar posters on here and has been for quite sometime.

I'm sure once you become established the feeling will be the same

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Is he/she new? Not so sure about that!

JACKO4EVER
Guest

28 December 2015 14:04:38

#316

Extended temperature forecast from BBC weather for MBY is as follows

Today 11c

Tuesday 10c

Wed 11c

Thurs 7c

Fri 5c

Sat 6c

Sun 7c

Mon 6c

Tues 5c

Wed 6c

I'm guessing this is courtesy of the Met O , which you have been backing for several days ( which is fine ), but you seem to be ignoring their current information

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Marcus, your going to feel perished in those single digit figures. Do you want to borrow some gloves? LOL

In the meantime I think a spell of cool zonality is the most likely outcome after the easterlies slip away from todays output.

David M Porter
Advanced Member Topic Starter

28 December 2015 14:06:14

#317

Any trolling that goes on here is being monitored most carefully. If someone starts to become too much of a nuisance in this thread, they will be dealt with appropriately.

On topic from here on in please.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Fothergill
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 14:09:58

#318

A deep cold easterly looks a remote chance now, just not enough heights to the NE. Battleground snow events are still a possibility though but we'll have to be lucky with the stars having to align just right. The North with the best chance of these.

Loads more rain forecast although the focus probably shifting slightly more to the SW as the lows track more southerly but more flooding on the cards.

GFS rainfall

ECM ens anomalies at day 10 show the main trough plonked right on top of us, looks very wet

nickl
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 14:46:49

#319

Marcus, been very little to comment on yet this season other than the big Siberian high in November that enabled all of n Asia to stay snow covered.

As heights grow to our North, the whole mobile pattern should sink South. Whether it and low central euro heights sustain is the question. The 06z gefs seem to be headed more blocked right across to our North in a couple of weeks time.

Anyway, Steve has changed his name so you may not recognise him when he turns up!

pdiddy
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 14:57:00

#320

Even a chance of snow for Shropshire in the next few days.

Edited by moderator 28 December 2015 15:06:02 | Reason: Not specified

Gooner
Advanced Member

28 December 2015 15:44:00

#321

Marcus, been very little to comment on yet this season other than the big Siberian high in November that enabled all of n Asia to stay snow covered.

As heights grow to our North, the whole mobile pattern should sink South. Whether it and low central euro heights sustain is the question. The 06z gefs seem to be headed more blocked right across to our North in a couple of weeks time.

Anyway, Steve has changed his name so you may not recognise him when he turns up!

Originally Posted by: nickl

Lets hope it does, giving us a much cooler pattern.

Has he