Indeed, and that's what keep this thread going.

For all the weather recently has been tedious to say the least, the model output at least has not been boring, especially in the past four days.

ECM at 96

UKMO at 96

GFS at 96

Indeed - it's as high into the Arctic as you can get. I've used a WZ chart here (GFS at T+42) to show that the warm plume actually reaches the Pole! Remarkable stuff.

ECM fairly similar to the UKMO run    120 h

UKMO 120h

Yup! It's out on WZ though - not as cold as the 6z run down here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM and UKMO virtually in agreement tonight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

where next for LP N or SE?

Where will the low go at 168? Obviously way into FI here but will be of considerable interest to see. Edit - Snap,  Roger!

There's the massive cold pool out east on the ECM 12z backing westwards.

What will twelfth night bring? A comic farce?

I think 120 is as far as its sensible to look so not fussed beyond there at the moment. Therefore I get the impression that the outcome for Tuesday 4th 12z wont be settled til as late as New Year's Eve 12zs.

The low does slide on the ECM 12z south-eastwards.

About right

Shropshire conspicuous in his absence. Must be a decent output this evening 

Screams potential further down the line in January. Promising 

Indeed and little more can be said than that. The ECM 12z seems to be adding to the interest. Just a case of wait and see for a few days I think.

I have seen worse looking charts at a week out but a week is a long time in weather (even if the building blocks and foundations are set long before then)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

Improvements from the ECM too this evening, the key point with regards to this cold spell looks like being January 3rd. The ECM shows the block winning against the Atlantic as the LP to  west of the UK weakens.

GFS not quite on board but plenty to be optimistic about this evening. We have a huge block and a large cold pool to go with it, even if things don't initially work out we could have further attempts at advecting the deep cold pool westwards.

Interesting times and the UKMO chart at T144 is also fantastic :)

You can't grumble with this afternoons / evenings runs can you

And a snow event for Central and Eastern areas as the next low slides.

Yes though the Atlantic is winning from there; nonetheless a good run, just need everything a bit further South.

Refer to my post earlier today in moans/ramps thread re UKMO views as were valid at 00z output analysis. In short: forecast emphasis will of course run in line with ENS majority as this becomes more coherently supported across ECMWF, MOGREPS-15 and further ahead, GloSea5 and tonight's EC Monthly (ie beyond T+360). Critically, distinction between 'cold' (ie something closer to avg or just below) versus 'pronounced cold' is important re how UKMO communicate this. The latter outcome rated 20% for NE/E as of the 00z suites. Complete assessment of 12z output and EC Monthly won't be completed until later tonight. 

^^^^^^^^^^ From Fergie over on NW

My take on the T240 is snow confined to Northern Scotland as the centre of the LP will have swept milder air North. All academic at this range of course.