theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
28 December 2015 19:06:22


 


 


My take on the T240 is snow confined to Northern Scotland as the centre of the LP will have swept milder air North. All academic at this range of course.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Very academic ........but well pointed out

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
28 December 2015 19:07:17

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=42


Surely this low has nowhere to go- it must drop into Europe?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
picturesareme
28 December 2015 19:07:19



There's the massive cold pool out east on the ECM 12z backing westwards.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


thats some cold pool regardless if it arrives over Western Europe or not!

Retron
28 December 2015 19:08:40
12Z ECM is again a snowy run across the UK on days 9 and 10. It's becoming a theme!
Leysdown, north Kent
Solar Cycles
28 December 2015 19:13:00

12Z ECM is again a snowy run across the UK on days 9 and 10. It's becoming a theme!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

A trend gaining momentum which would produce some large falls if correct of course.

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2015 19:28:27


 


 


My take on the T240 is snow confined to Northern Scotland as the centre of the LP will have swept milder air North. All academic at this range of course.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


We just need that low 300 miles further south and its a UK wide snowmageddon at 240h plenty of snow before that though for many days 8 and 9.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Steve Murr
28 December 2015 19:36:09
The snow depth chart on ECM at 240 has 1 foot over a swathe of scotland ( north of 2 foot towards the gorms )

With 6 inch depths right down to the southern midlands- tapering off to zilch south of the M4.

An incredible run although NIMBY....
White Meadows
28 December 2015 19:45:13

Improvements across the 3 main important models this evening. Shame the concensus is cold rain for 2 thirds of England... Although a few tweaks & further upgrades could see true cold tapped into with snow down south also.  Certainly a downward trend on the NAO index: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Brian Gaze
28 December 2015 19:59:45

Quick heads up..


On some screen resolutions charts in the MO thread are causing formatting problems. I'm not going to remove charts but will be making a few changes in the next couple of days to try and improve things. The results could at times be a little unpredictable so please bear with me. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
28 December 2015 20:00:16


Improvements across the 3 main important models this evening. Shame the concensus is cold rain for 2 thirds of England... Although a few tweaks & further upgrades could see true cold tapped into with snow down south also.  Certainly a downward trend on the NAO index: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Snow is such a fine line in the UK, I wouldn't rule it out and assume it will be rain

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Saint Snow
28 December 2015 20:12:31

 


Snow is such a fine line in the UK, I wouldn't rule it out and assume it will be rain


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Sensible - hope for the best, but expect the worst!


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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NickR
28 December 2015 20:18:50

The snow depth chart on ECM at 240 has 1 foot over a swathe of scotland ( north of 2 foot towards the gorms )

With 6 inch depths right down to the southern midlands- tapering off to zilch south of the M4.

An incredible run although NIMBY....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Do you have a link for the ECM snow depth charts, Steve?

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 20:31:13


 


Do you have a link for the ECM snow depth charts, Steve?


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Nick, here is one:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
28 December 2015 20:32:43


 


Nick, here is one:



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Is that derived or actually output as a model variable?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
28 December 2015 20:35:10


 


Snow is such a fine line in the UK, I wouldn't rule it out and assume it will be rain


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Indeed Marcus. If we do get to the point where it's looking likely but marginal then factors such as a little elevation, precipitation intensity and the temperature profile in the lower atmosphere, if that's the right expression.  Active frontal systems with heavier precipitation are more likely to produce snow, all things being equal.  


Of course there's always the matter of evaporative cooling, particularly with slow-moving systems.


At the moment it's all very finely balanced and we could still end up with a cold rain fest or blizzards; at the moment the former still looks rather more likely.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


stophe
28 December 2015 20:49:25

Dutch ecm ensembles.


nickl
28 December 2015 20:52:04


 


Is that derived or actually output as a model variable?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


seems to match the weatherbell chart which I believe is EC data driven rather than assumed cover from precip and temperature 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2015 20:53:25


Dutch ecm ensembles.



Originally Posted by: stophe 


Wow much colder easily the coldest so far.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
28 December 2015 20:54:22


 


seems to match the weatherbell chart which I believe is EC data driven rather than assumed cover from precip and temperature 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


 GFS has a snow depth variable which I've found to be atrocious for the UK but probably more accurate for regions where conditions are less marginal both for snow to fall and to accumulate.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
28 December 2015 20:54:24


 


Indeed Marcus. If we do get to the point where it's looking likely but marginal then factors such as a little elevation, precipitation intensity and the temperature profile in the lower atmosphere, if that's the right expression.  Active frontal systems with heavier precipitation are more likely to produce snow, all things being equal.  


Of course there's always the matter of evaporative cooling, particularly with slow-moving systems.


At the moment it's all very finely balanced and we could still end up with a cold rain fest or blizzards; at the moment the former still looks rather more likely.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Off the current data those South of the M4 for sure but further North snow would be more than likely, however we all know just how wrong these charts are at these sort of timescales. 

Rob K
28 December 2015 20:58:28
Just need that low centre about 300 or 400 miles south please.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_thick.png?cb=934 

The 528dam line passes through the northern half of Scotland.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
28 December 2015 21:07:03

First glance of the models since the GFS 6z. Significant improvements. Easterly= 20% IMO.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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nickl
28 December 2015 21:07:32

Just need that low centre about 300 or 400 miles south please.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_thick.png?cb=934

The 528dam line passes through the northern half of Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


very low pressure brings the threat of snowfall closer to the surface though your point is reasonable.  

Whether Idle
28 December 2015 21:07:57

The Chinese go for an Atlantic take-away...t168


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
28 December 2015 21:10:00


The Chinese go for an Atlantic take-away...t168



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


BBC week ahead forecast seems to have that as the favoured outcome. Perhaps the Chinese have replaced the UK Met? 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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