theweatheroutlook

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Arbroath 1320
28 December 2015 21:10:21
That's the coldest set of GFS ensembles for Aberdeen so far this Winter in the 12z:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850Aberdeen0.png 

Quite a flip from what we've seen in recent days. Looking good for a cold incursion from the East after New Year, particularly the further North you are in the UK.
GGTTH
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 21:12:13


 


BBC week ahead forecast seems to have that as the favoured outcome. Perhaps the Chinese have replaced the UK Met? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


LoL. 


On a more serious note - here are the ens 2m temps for SW Holland/ NW Beligium- very useful for those of us in Kent under a se ly:



The op is one of the mildest solutions on days 7 (4th) and 8 (5th) and mean-ish on day 9 before going mild again day 10.


The control goes sub zero from 6am on 5th to 8am on 7th - so a 48 hour snap.


Both control and op show a cold  snap rather than a spell - this is in line with my expectations.


9am tomorrow - for the 0zs- one would hope to see a less mild option on 4th and 5th from the op.


Edit - look at the divergence from around t96 (New Year's Day) - so much divergence already rendering 120hours on as FI.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
nsrobins
28 December 2015 21:33:06


 


BBC week ahead forecast seems to have that as the favoured outcome. Perhaps the Chinese have replaced the UK Met? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I hadn't realised the tender for the UK Met service had already been announced? 😉

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
David M Porter
28 December 2015 21:51:54


 


BBC week ahead forecast seems to have that as the favoured outcome. Perhaps the Chinese have replaced the UK Met? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


If they have, I bet George Osborne has had something to do with it!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gusty
28 December 2015 21:54:22

Who's got a beer in hand waiting for the 18z ? 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
28 December 2015 21:55:43


Who's got a beer in hand waiting for the 18z ? 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I think Tally has found his lost member

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
28 December 2015 22:00:46


 


I think Tally has found his lost member


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


That's good news Phil. Hopefully we will get a tasty 18z that excites many members here. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
28 December 2015 22:03:08


 


That's good news Phil. Hopefully we will get a tasty 18z that excites many members here. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The GFS hasn't been playing ball though Steve.  Incidentally I have a glass of Baileys.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Jive Buddy
28 December 2015 22:05:06

Some members are just hard to please though.

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Gusty
28 December 2015 22:08:15


Some members are just hard to please though.


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Living in Kent the last couple of winters has been tough. I only want a couple of inches. Whether Idle will settle for an inch.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
28 December 2015 22:10:13


 


Living in Kent the last couple of winters has been tough. I only want a couple of inches. Whether Idle will settle for an inch.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


A centimetre would be enough.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 22:12:47

We need a trigger low or that cold pool is going north west to Scandi


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Sevendust
28 December 2015 22:15:06


 


A centimetre would be enough.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Not in my experience

Whether Idle
28 December 2015 22:19:23

This one is going the same way as the 12z.  Pressure is too high in the Med.  The slider's point of inflection is too far north and the low will roll off the block to the north.


Sig diffs from UKMO ECM @ t96. 


trouble is it looks plausible.  Time will tell...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctor snow
28 December 2015 22:25:07


 


Not in my experience


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

i would like to see a least 6inchs 

Phil G
28 December 2015 22:25:19
As the 18z continues to roll out, the main core of the jet has been pushed further south once again on the latest GFS run, though it runs more west to east rather than having a more north to south component.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16214.gif 



yorkshirelad89
28 December 2015 22:27:06

Similar to the 12z for GFS. However lower pressure over mainland Europe at least at T+174

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif 

Hull
Sinky1970
28 December 2015 22:27:33
Nothing doing still, i'm off to bed.
Gusty
28 December 2015 22:32:38

The 18z is similar to the 12z. 


The basic pattern is broadly similar across all the output now.



  1. Scandinavian High

  2. Jet profile NW-SE

  3. Lowering heights over Southern Europe.


The difference though is that the GFS seems to be modelling the whole set up 800-900 miles further NE.


A few tweaks with a SW'ward correction and we stand a chance of that cold easterly incursion.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Polar Low
28 December 2015 22:36:17

aye a twin negative trough with a short wave to save the day easy to model that one i think not but can a short wave save the day for once


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0&carte=1


 

Deep Powder
28 December 2015 22:38:37
I know it's been mentioned before and I also know it won't ultimately mean the same will happen, however, the way this is playing out reminds me exactly of Jan 2013. I distinctly remember UKMO and ECM showing a slider scenario, but GFS did not want to play ball. Shannon (entropy) was discussed a lot and I think it was not until around T72, that GFS came into agreement with UKMO and ECM. Based on this experience I would say, therefore, that in the current situation FI is much earlier than the normal T120 and could be as little as 2 or 3 days......I remain cautiously optimistic, yet realistically minded👌😎
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Polar Low
28 December 2015 22:41:31

Yes you are correct gfs opp changed and went under on a 6z at t72


 


I know it's been mentioned before and I also know it won't ultimately mean the same will happen, however, the way this is playing out reminds me exactly of Jan 2013. I distinctly remember UKMO and ECM showing a slider scenario, but GFS did not want to play ball. Shannon (entropy) was discussed a lot and I think it was not until around T72, that GFS came into agreement with UKMO and ECM. Based on this experience I would say, therefore, that in the current situation FI is much earlier than the normal T120 and could be as little as 2 or 3 days......I remain cautiously optimistic, yet realistically minded👌😎

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

Brainstorm
28 December 2015 22:46:28


 


Wow, that is some snow plunge! (hope this is the right thread for this)

When a wise man doesn't understand he says, "I do not understand".
Only the fool remains silent when a question could bring them wisdom.
Polar Low
28 December 2015 22:46:53

concerning amount of wet in the wrong places


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Polar Low
28 December 2015 22:51:33

I like the general idea from the japs



 

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