Can anyone paste the quote in here? It seems to not be showing up...
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Noteworthy is how over a good number of it's recent runs, GloSea5 has also leaned to the same outcome: i.e., +ve MSLP anomaly centred to SW of the UK, which - like EC Monthly - results in a successive week-by-week reduction in the recent/current/near-term conspicuous +ve PPN anomaly for much of the UK. Equally of note is how some recent deterministic runs of other models have begun showing the same net outcome in far reaches of their output.
EC Monthly has a cold anomaly over the UK by end of 1st week Jan (the first such signal yet this winter!) but then returns to +ve one as Jan continues, albeit rather masking a net NW'ly flow with anticyclonic regime dominating directly to SW/W. Of interest are striking height rises bisecting the pole by mid-late Jan, but these are subsequently lost or weakly reversed in model signal.
However, there's a fair spread in stamps 17th Jan onwards (like GloSea) so whilst by that juncture we might reasonably steer towards climatology as fair guide for now, confidence is clearly lower thereafter (as you'd expect).
What can we reasonably deduce?
- continued signal for something drier, at least for many parts of UK, as Jan progresses
- continued signal for +ve MSLP focused eventually to SW/W
- as per recent UKMO assessment, likelihood of any *sustained and/or pronounced* cold weather continues to look generally low over next 2-4 weeks, albeit superimposed over a colder phase early part of Jan, courtesy depression track running NW-SE across UK or just to S (as per some recent deterministic output)
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.