Temps from the Met MBY over the next few days

Today 13c ( currently 11.6c )

Thurs 9c

Fri 5c brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Sat 9c

Sun 8c

Mon 7c

Tue 6c

Certainly a much more seasonal feel and one that will feel quite cold

GEM 0z control run 156hrs

NAVGEM 6z @ 144

Be happy with that

It would appear there are a veritable smorgasbord of options at 144 hours.

Yes, a lot of model uncertainty, Shannon entropy and well, anything could happen. What a fascinating period of model watching- though I feel very sad for those affected by the winds and rain.

Look at this chart from the great Winter of 1947......not much going on here

10 days later

All  J F F

Ref Gooners last post...

This is not what we see on the Meto general forecast this morning:

'Dull and damp on Saturday, with heavy rain Sunday. Becoming mild but windy'.

The contradiction is also illustrated here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1054.gif

The GFS more in line with the figures you have posted.  (As you are north of the M4)

I've defended my property from flooding during a freak thunderstorm many years ago.  I was successful by the skin of my teeth and the cessation of the downpour.  The flood victims deserve every sympathy and support in whatever form it can be given.

Meanwhile here's the ECM ens for the Brugge region of Belgium (as close to me as London is...).  The op and control both taking a walk on the mild side. 

ECM ens anomalies indicating a very wet pattern. Day 8:

NAEFS at day 12 shows the trough weakening and the Euro high re-establishing bringing a return of mild to Europe.

So my outlook: very wet and much cooler up to at least day 10 with snow possible on high ground in N, then probably becoming drier but milder. 

The only thing we can be anything like sure about at this stage with the current model output is that the exceptional mildness of the past two months looks like coming to an end, for a while anyway. That might perhaps help to provide a bit of relief for flood-stricken northern areas from the heaviest rains such as those seen recently. The only thing is, even small amounts of rain in these areas could and likely will cause problems for a while at least, given the sodden state of the ground.

I don't know what to think about this. It seems like there really isn't going to be a cold spell after all.

The thought of replacing mild zonality with cold or cooler zonality doesn't really fill me with much enthusiasm. Roll on Spring!

Which could well be colder than what we are about to experience

I find it amusing how March and warmer drier weather are often linked

but there never was likely to be one, the national cold was always a very unlikely small chance ... Just seems the majority of post lately in here where getting carried away with a the small possibility rather then paying attention to the majority.

People where even miss reading what the metoffice said yesterday!

My lawn is absolutely sodden and we have had little rain in comparison to those further North.........dry frosty weather would be most welcome

Yes at this rate our coldest month will end up being March  It wouldn't surprise me if this winter had a sting in its tail 

So yeah, maybe roll on spring? 

I think a nationwide cold spell in the first half of January was always going to be an outside chance; from the comments I have read from quite a lot of people throughout this thread, I reckon many have long accepted this as being the case.

The GEM offers something much colder and more wintry.

Damit NAVGEM

Apparently this is still far from certain, GEM and NAVGEM do this.

TBH this is all academic, I can just go back to commenting on how the polar vortex continues to weaken, even if we don't see a cold spell in the first week of January, the potential gets better and better as we go through the month. At 10hpa the polar vortex is nearly at risk of being split:

The tropospheric polar vortex is located in siberia, well to the south (and 180degrees out in terms of longitude) where it should be.

By 384 hours the polar vortex is virtually in china and there is debris everywhere in the rest of the NH

My prediction is the first colder than average January since 2012 at the very least with a good chance of actually beating 2012. 

Very difficult to get the blocks in the right place for a UK cold spell - if that WAA had been a bit further west to us that would have been great but on the positive side at least it brings Scandy and Eastern Europe into more normal temperatures. Any future easterly may have a bit of a bite now however unlikely it looks viewing today's output. We just have to wait and see now how that WAA affects the vortex later on in January - as per Quantam's post some interesting possibilities at least.

Hi Quantum,

I must admit I hadn't realised that Jan 2012 was colder than average; I would be surprised if it was colder than Jan 2013 as that January did have a fairly persistent, although not severe, cold spell from the second week of the month until just before the end of it.

Without being able to check right now, Jan 2012 was around 5.5C ??

Colder than average Jan/Febs have only followed above 5C Decembers twice in the last 28 years.