theweatheroutlook

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Whether Idle
30 December 2015 18:55:19


 


8 minutes after your post and the ECM at 144 shows trough disruption, or as it's sometimes known a slider low.


Let's face it folks, the only thing that's certain is that the outlook is uncertain at the moment!


It really is quite pointless to dwell for long on charts that are a week or more away. Even this 144 chart is pushing it...



Originally Posted by: Retron 


The voice of reason

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Maunder Minimum
30 December 2015 19:13:46


ECM12z follows a similar pattern by 216.


(PS: ECM 0z and 12z data will be appearing on the TWO chart viewer up to 25 mins earlier shortly and slightly higher res data will be plotted).


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Trolling your own site Brian?


That chart is deepest FI at the moment.


☺

New world order coming.
Zubzero
30 December 2015 19:20:57
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015123012/graphe6_1000_285_110___.gif 

The quest for an air frost continues, just wind and rain as far as the eye can see
David M Porter
30 December 2015 19:37:53


 


Trolling your own site Brian?


That chart is deepest FI at the moment.


☺


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I agree. We need to get developments at the weekend and early next week ascertained for sure one way or the other before we can seriously contemplate what transpires from there.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Saint Snow
30 December 2015 19:39:22


Hope this dartboard stays away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


 


It'd be nice if it could just track about 400 miles to the south of what it's currently showing - preferably into frigid air (then plough straight into mainland Europe)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
30 December 2015 19:50:10


 


 


It'd be nice if it could just track about 400 miles to the south of what it's currently showing - preferably into frigid air (then plough straight into mainland Europe)



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Agree wholeheartedly Saint!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Solar Cycles
30 December 2015 20:01:14


 


Trolling your own site Brian?


That chart is deepest FI at the moment.


☺


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

He's a tinker isn't he.

Solar Cycles
30 December 2015 20:06:12


 


8 minutes after your post and the ECM at 144 shows trough disruption, or as it's sometimes known a slider low.


Let's face it folks, the only thing that's certain is that the outlook is uncertain at the moment!


It really is quite pointless to dwell for long on charts that are a week or more away. Even this 144 chart is pushing it...



Originally Posted by: Retron 

The voice of sanity in a sea of madness. FI is at + 120 with lots of options on the table, end of really.

tallyho_83
30 December 2015 20:17:03


 


 


It'd be nice if it could just track about 400 miles to the south of what it's currently showing - preferably into frigid air (then plough straight into mainland Europe)



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


This is a New Low!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1981.gif

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Hungry Tiger
30 December 2015 20:32:24


 


This is a New Low!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1981.gif


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


My goodness - all we know is from this - is that something dramatic is showing up - scary in a lot of ways.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


JACKO4EVER
30 December 2015 20:39:05


 


My goodness - all we know is from this - is that something dramatic is showing up - scary in a lot of ways.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


yes, this has been showing on a couple of runs recently. It will hopefully downgrade, but could still be one powerful beast. If we could just get on the other side of that trough then things would get interesting.

Polar Low
30 December 2015 20:56:53

its been the last of the xmas sherry dont worry about it



 


My goodness - all we know is from this - is that something dramatic is showing up - scary in a lot of ways.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Polar Low
30 December 2015 20:59:00

What did you do Q get it to look that 



Guys, its fine.


The NAVGEM has spoken



Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Polar Low
30 December 2015 21:01:53

Indeed Darren still all over the place the ecm stamps at t120


http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2015123012!!/


 


 


 



 


8 minutes after your post and the ECM at 144 shows trough disruption, or as it's sometimes known a slider low.


Let's face it folks, the only thing that's certain is that the outlook is uncertain at the moment!


It really is quite pointless to dwell for long on charts that are a week or more away. Even this 144 chart is pushing it...



Originally Posted by: Retron 

Gusty
30 December 2015 21:02:38

London 12z GEFS.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


The risk of the very cold easterly is now very small (non existent in this suite), the idea is not dead in the water but trends suggest the probability is diminishing with each passing run. A continental ESE'ly flow is our best chance for a marginal snow event down here in our corner if a low does track further south. Fairly modest 850Hpa's of around -2c or -3c should be enough to do so in this set up.


Stormy, wet and wild continues to be the buzz word tonight with the risk of snow in the NE for a while courtesy of closer proximity risk of tapping into the cold pool.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Phil G
30 December 2015 21:22:34
Another GFS run due soon. I wonder where it will plot a number of notable features that have altered run to run.
The cold just makes it's way westwards to the coast of Norway before being swept further away, and this has been shown on just about all recent runs.
With the constant modelling changes to low pressure areas in the relatively short term, I do wonder if one of these alterations may have a significant impact further down the line. Eyes nearly down.
Brian Gaze
30 December 2015 21:25:31


 


Trolling your own site Brian?


That chart is deepest FI at the moment.


☺


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Just trying to add a semblance of balance! At times people post GEFS PX @384 hours ahead because it shows cold and next to nothing else does. I also note that as model runs roll out the charts from them have a tendency to stop appearing in the forum once they go mild. We've also had posters in the past assuring us it's going to turn cold who then disappear for weeks on end when it goes pear shaped before returning again to ramp up another chimera!   

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
30 December 2015 21:29:59

The output looks well, you guessed it very WET into Jan. Pretty dull dismal and grey with more gales. Next time those complain at a bit of cold and snow think twice at least your house isn't flooded, sit back and enjoy the seasonal feel instead. Those poor folk in the north west must be sick by now. Winter 2016-16 looks like surely going down as one of the most depressing in recent years.

Gusty
30 December 2015 21:33:23

Another GFS run due soon. I wonder where it will plot a number of notable features that have altered run to run.
The cold just makes it's way westwards to the coast of Norway before being swept further away, and this has been shown on just about all recent runs.
With the constant modelling changes to low pressure areas in the relatively short term, I do wonder if one of these alterations may have a significant impact further down the line. Eyes nearly down.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Its a fascinating period of model watching Phil.  . The forum seems to be a more informed, relaxed and enjoyable place to post this winter too.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



John p
30 December 2015 21:44:07


 


Just trying to add a semblance of balance! At times people post GEFS PX @384 hours ahead because it shows cold and next to nothing else does. I also note that as model runs roll out the charts from them have a tendency to stop appearing in the forum once they go mild. We've also had posters in the past assuring us it's going to turn cold who then disappear for weeks on end when it goes pear shaped before returning again to ramp up another chimera!   


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Quite odd that you feel the need to rib members of your forum? Are you trying to cull membership to save bandwidth?!


Believe it or not, some people don't find models showing drizzle and temps of 13c a particularly interesting talking point...


 

Camberley, Surrey
David M Porter
30 December 2015 21:51:09

John, that remark to Brian wasn't called for. If you meant it as a joke then fine, but if so please use a relevant smiley which would indicate the tone and intention of your post. Brian is every bit as entitled to his opinion in here as everyone else.


Ta.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
30 December 2015 22:15:39


In other years this sort of chart would have got the place buzzing , fraction away from being a cracker and at 132 still time for it to go in our favour........odds against us I know but ......

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
30 December 2015 22:18:57
Karl Guille
30 December 2015 22:21:33
Small changes on the 18z bring colder 850 hPAs closer to the north-east and this flatter profile of the low around this period seems to be gathering a little momentum. There are a number of similar runs on the GEM ensembles but ultimately they didn't lead to all that much. Clearly the further north you are the slightly higher the chance of at least a bit of snow but still plenty to play for if we can keep the deep cold entrenched over Northern Europe into the new year!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
30 December 2015 22:22:38

Cold so close to the NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


It is indeed Phil and well into FI

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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