some cold runs on the 12z... Including several that bring an Easterly

Admire your optimism Darren, but I think the writing is on the wall that the Atlantic will dominate the first half of January. 

There was a majority of runs at the end of the 6z run which had HP to the West or South West of us - be interesting to see if this is a trend or just a blip. If it's a trend I'd hope for Northward corrections and signs of the HP moving up to Greenie - chilly 2 day topplers followed by mild air aren't terribly exciting

Guys, its fine.

The NAVGEM has spoken

Proof? You can cherry pick mild charts to your hearts content, and coldies will cherry pick easterlies to counter you, but as Darren rightly explained on p40, there is huge uncertainty past 120hrs.

There is only gobbledygook written on the walls at the moment, I'm afraid

GEFS12z look poor for cold weather this evening.

Yes, looks like pressure will fall over Scandi so no or little chance of slider lows. This powerful block has ended up being another failure. We will have to wait even more for the holy grail of a Greenland high or more realistically an atlantic ridge topplers giving brief northerlies

For London - yes.  However as the potential for cold weather is being determined by the extent that the Scandi High allows the cold air to get into north of england.  Therefore - checking out the likes of Liverpool and glasgow and you can see an increase in likelyhood.  

The batlle ground currently is from north Germany to north of scotland, leaving the majority of  ensembles giving a unsettled and wet (wrong side of the battleground) development.

The Ensembles need to be reviewed across the whole of the UK for this current pattern.

8 minutes after your post and the ECM at 144 shows trough disruption, or as it's sometimes known a slider low.

Let's face it folks, the only thing that's certain is that the outlook is uncertain at the moment!

It really is quite pointless to dwell for long on charts that are a week or more away. Even this 144 chart is pushing it...

I can't have it that's its uncertain - unless you live in North East Scotland as the dividing line could be close, for the rest of us it's a case of the High not being far enough South and the jet just too far North. Beyond that, and it looks a lost battle for the whole country which potentially disastrous consequences for the already sodden areas.

Hum....

Really?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Don't think the HP over Scandi wants to concede the battle at this stage anyway.

Not really, only one way that low is going, could be very mild within 6 hours on that chart.

T192 and the Atlantic has won the game, this Low for the backend of next week is potentially very serious.

Just as well that it's most unlikely that'll be the exact synoptic setup in 7 days then.

Merely commenting on the chart. I agree, everything up for grabs at the moment. Clusters and ensembles are the best bet at the moment.

But after a month where my average temp here has been 11.6C including nighttime lows, anything cooler is a bonus.

ECM12z follows a similar pattern by 216.

(PS: ECM 0z and 12z data will be appearing on the TWO chart viewer up to 25 mins earlier shortly and slightly higher res data will be plotted).

evening all" my first post on your site. Yes I thought it was MR Brown he went as TMW on another site only a fortnight ago' but was banned for a month for ramping. The old dog