6.7 please

Hmmm.

Tricky month to call - day time temps for first part look average but given unsettled nature of the weather night time temps likely to be a bit above average, giving above average CET overall. With the PV looking disrupted there's a chance of a cold spell cropping up, which would probably be enough to drag CET to a bit below average.

I'll take a daft gamble and go with 3.7c, meaning January has a massive swing temp wise from December.

Now watch a mild south westerly set in and doom me to starting next years competition in much the same way as I ended this years

Thanks for doing the competition GW.

My guesstimate would be 6.15c

Out of interest, what is the biggest monthly CET swing on record? If Jan were to come in below average (long shot, admittedly), then there'd be a huge downwards swing from Dec.

4.09c for me please 

I'll try 6.2C please GW.

Thanks once again for running such an entertaining competition.

Rob

4.3C for me please.....

5.1c for me please. 

I'm very sorry- I understand I'm allowed one change? I think ground temperatures might keep things a bit warmer- only excuse I can come up with- I'll go for 5.2 for CET (I still think the N will get a below average.) Cheers.

With so much uncertainty in the models even 4/5 days away (and potential big differences in the resulting temps for the two main synoptic options), it really is a 'stick a pin in' time.

The optimist in me is tempted to go with a sub-average prediction, but the miserable realist is having none of it . I don't think it will be anything like as mild as December (no sh*t!), and I don't want to go too high in case we do get a decent colder spell at some point. So I'll go for a distinctly average..

4.6c

Joining in this year..... 5.9c for me please GW

4.9c please

My normal method (NOAA upstream analogues) would have me going quite a bit below too but I'm still smarting from the awful decision to change the figure for February in this year's competition.

Looking at uncertainty in the models seems to be a regular month end feature - the light at the end of the tunnel suddenly becomes visible when competition deadline has just passed.

Wishing you all a happy and healthy 2016.

4.3C

Expecting a cold finish following from temps tending to be about 1*C above average overall.

May as well go for slightly below average at 4.2*C, and hope for the best!

Here's to plenty of fun and games in 2016 

I'll go with a pretty average 5.1C please

Thanks for running this competition.

I am going to go for 5.8c, thanks once again.

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Gary

Thanks everyone. Keep the predictions coming. 

I am going for 4.8C.

5.5C please GW