theweatheroutlook

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Whether Idle
31 December 2015 18:46:09

5.0  please GW

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Edicius81
31 December 2015 20:01:11
Not a clue.

I'll stab in the dark at 6.2c please
Wobbly_Monk
31 December 2015 20:40:56
I'm going for a notably cooler month at 4.9c. Great competition, thanks GW.
John S2
31 December 2015 21:32:37
My guess = +3.9c
markwells
31 December 2015 21:43:26

Hi happy new year to all. Please can I go for 6.1C. Many thanks

moomin75
31 December 2015 21:47:23

Greetings from Melbourne where it hit 38c yesterday!


Was tempted to go for another exceptionally mild month in January but will rein myself in just a little to say above average 5.2c please with copious rainfall again sadly.


I think my January average is going to be in the vicinity of 25c. See you all in February for the start of winter 😂😂😂

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Duncan McAlister
31 December 2015 21:49:19

5.5C for me please.

The Professional
31 December 2015 22:41:08
Toughy this one. I'll have a stab with 5.09. Happy New Year all!
Twister
31 December 2015 22:44:25
Lets go with Dec CET cut in half... 4.9C - cheers GW!
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Easterly Beasterly
31 December 2015 22:49:15

Will go for 5.2c please

Tractor Boy
31 December 2015 23:19:01

4.0C please

Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Darren S
31 December 2015 23:58:26

6.1C please 

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
NeilM
01 January 2016 00:23:17

I'll go for 4.74C


 


Happy New Year

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl


My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk , please visit, feedback welcome.


GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
01 January 2016 01:31:00

I'll go for 5.5C please ☺

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
01 January 2016 14:20:41


Out of interest, what is the biggest monthly CET swing on record? If Jan were to come in below average (long shot, admittedly), then there'd be a huge downwards swing from Dec. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Given the huge model back-away today from a cold scenario, the above is purely academic - but I would still love one of our great stattos to come up with the answer.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
01 January 2016 15:30:48

3.3C

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
01 January 2016 15:36:17
Hello all,
long time lurker first time poster here. Please can you put me down for 5.5c. Am expecting another mild month but nothing too spectacular...
bruced
01 January 2016 16:17:29

I'll go for 4.84, please.


Thanks GW


David, Northallerton

David
ErghKommol
01 January 2016 16:39:50

5.7 please


 


Just a random guess.


 


Happy New Year!

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 January 2016 17:39:54

How nice it is to see new members joining in this competition and 2 first time posters as well.  Credit to GW of course! 


I wonder how participation numbers of this comp has grown over the years.  Sorry GW, that means more work for you but if you do get time it would be interesting to see.  Of course, the more participants we get, the more work there is for you and as much as I'd like to offer my help, I couldn't do anywhere near as good a job as you.  


Grovel over! 


All the best for the coming year to you all and may the new year bring a bit of seasonal weather.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Norwich Nick
01 January 2016 17:48:33

What a great idea..thanks GW.


I'll go for a Jan CET of 4.38C


 


Zubzero
01 January 2016 19:35:49
2.9C please
Quantum
01 January 2016 19:58:05

If possible, I'd like to undercut zubzero and go for 2.85C

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin P
02 January 2016 10:09:22

Very late with this.


Think I'll say 6.6 


Thanks.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Global Warming
02 January 2016 10:51:44


 


 


Given the huge model back-away today from a cold scenario, the above is purely academic - but I would still love one of our great stattos to come up with the answer.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


A quick scan through the data suggests there are 4 occasions where the swing from one month to the next has been 8C or more. All of these are pre 1900. They are:


1740 - September to October 8.7C (14.0C to 5.3C)


1807 - October to November 8.5C (11.4C to 2.9C)


1895 - September to October 8.3C (15.4C to 7.1C)


1684 - October to November 8.0C (11.0C to 3.0C)


So we would need to have an extremely cold January to beat any of these. Most unlikely.

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