Yes Martin, GFS is showing HP in charge mid January to the south, but the latest 12z run shows the jet much further south and a significant area of low pressure before that in the Med not modelled before. I am interested to see if this is gone on the next run or is a growing theme.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2341.gif

Interesting as GFS has completely dropped this dartboard offered by GEM on the 11th. EDIT as mentioned already by Fothergill above.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2041.gif

Yes it does but in isolation of one run I would call this a small nuance at the moment. I think with the power of the North Atlantic likely even by mid month the theme of High pressure building to the South and SW which has been hinted at on the last few runs is an annoying theme which could lead us down the path back to December which is something none of us want but does unfortunately currently threaten to occur.

In addition reading between the lines of the Met update today the snapshot that came to mind was a pressure build to the South for a time in the middle of the month bringing possible drier and milder conditions at times in the South and East. The ECM update will be interesting in what it shows at Day 10 tonight in whether there are signs of a pressure build to the South and SW on that run too.

These NAEFS charts show the theme for anomalously warm temps into Europe once again from around day 8. Up to 12c above average in Spain by day 10. Looks similar to December really as you say. A way out but showing for several days now so worth taking notice of.

Day 8 2m temp anomalies

 ^ Day 12 height anomalies

Yes I agree entirely with what you say and any evolution beyond Day 5 is speculative. It's a shame we have to look at the far out time points for any grains of hope for change.

GEFS12 update shows a big spreading developing towards mid month but most runs going average to mild.

Wednesday not looking a day to be outside on the ECM op. Has the leading low a bit deeper than GFS or UKMO. Rather parky in those winds, with the 528 dam line over the Eng Channel.

Just looked at the ECM 12z run. What seems pretty clear to me about it is that while it doesn't show a freeze or anything approaching it, neither does it suggest a return to the exceptionally mild type of zonality that dominated both November & December. Temps much nearer average I would deduce from that run.

Was thinking the same. Despite the apparent lack of any deep cold on the horizon in most output, predictions of mild well into January seem equally wide of the mark for most. Cooler zonality with some snow looks to be on the menu for some with moderate elevation in the north if some of the current runs are correct.

Cant be far off a snow event for central England 526 dam, -3/-4 850s and pressure below 980. 

100% agree. Another rotten winterseason! n😬

Well the MetO's update for this month through to March from a few days ago still sounded a bit more hopeful for Feb, which is consistent with their thoughts from November. A long way to go until we get to Feb- doesn't start until four weeks on Monday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 12z tonight keeps the Jet flow well South at 10 days so things not too mild and with Low pressure still close by to the South heights to the SW are kept at distance at this time but to me there are signs that the Jet flow will be re- orientating further North in the following days.

Maybe not the most exciting set of 12z runs if it's cold you're after but not without interest - suspect there'll be a few wintry days up North and some pretty windy weather for all at times. Given the regularity that the models keep throwing up nasty LPs there must be a reasonably high possibility of one of these verifying, which will be 'interesting'.

The GFS ens nicely highlight that whilst average to (a bit) mild may be the most likely outcome down South, there is enough uncertainty to suggest a low possibility of a cold spell occurring. 

On the Euro High 'trend' - imo the GFS has had this as a distinct possibility in FI for a while - there's been a few members going for this, a few for HP to the South West/West and a few others going for HP to the North West or indeed the East. Can't see that this has changed tonight, it's just that the Op has picked one of the Euro HP solutions this time round, rather than the West based HP offering from this morning.

After today I'm going to do something I've never done before in January and take a 2 week break from model watching and everything weather .

The combination of endless wind, rain and mediocre temperatures throughout is a tiresome prospect. This is the 3rd consecutive winter now and its wearing.

Time to concentrate on a new hobby..a thing called life. 

See you in a couple of days Steve 

I can do this..I can do this.. I can do this.

 But, but Steve you'll miss the 18z runs.

"We live in Hope rather than Expectation"

Should be the TWO crest. "spem super expectatio", or similar. Over to GTW.

Look on the bright side.  At least we have TWO to moan and groan with like minded people! 

Love the idea - never managed to stop!