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Rob K
04 January 2016 17:40:07
The ensembles will look pretty chilly if the GFS mean is anything to go by:

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010412/gens-21-1-204.png 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
04 January 2016 17:42:15


Where did you read the textbook definition of a toppler?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


You won't find one, that's for sure.


The term was first used on usw by the likes of Will Hand and Paul Bartlett in 1999, which is where I picked it up from. I used to use it a fair bit myself back when I started my daily run-downs, which was 15 years ago now!


In those early days it just meant a high "toppling" over the UK, with northerlies or NW'lies for a day or two followed by SW'lies as the high toppled SE'wards. That's still the definition I use today!


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
04 January 2016 17:43:17

The ensembles will look pretty chilly if the GFS mean is anything to go by:

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010412/gens-21-1-204.png

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


They sure do. In fact, they're starting to get "that look" about them, ECM too.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
04 January 2016 17:46:36


 


They sure do. In fact, they're starting to get "that look" about them, ECM too.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


And looking at the 850s, the op run was something of an outlier in the latter stages, with the main cluster keeping it colder for longer:


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1


 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
John p
04 January 2016 17:50:36


 


 


I can't recall anyone using the term on TWO before I did but I could be wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Are you claiming ownership for the term toppler?


Blimey, it's only the weather!


Camberley, Surrey
Shropshire
04 January 2016 17:57:33


 


I can't recall anyone using the term on TWO before I did but I could be wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I certainly got the term from TWO. You can have that one Brian 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
llamedos
04 January 2016 17:58:12


 


Are you claiming ownership for the term toppler?


Blimey, it's only the weather!


Originally Posted by: John p 

Let's move on and play nicely please. 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Arcus
04 January 2016 17:59:48


 


I can't recall anyone using the term on TWO before I did but I could be wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It was certainly widely in use on TWO during the 00s, mainly because we had a lot of topplers... Also known as "jordan ascendum".


 


I recall NW refugees coming on here during that period and not having a clue what it meant.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Charmhills
04 January 2016 18:04:44
ITSY
04 January 2016 18:06:00


 


It was certainly widely in use on TWO during the 00s, mainly because we had a lot of topplers... Also known as "jordan ascendum".


 


I recall NW refugees coming on here during that period and not having a clue what it meant.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


NW refugees 😂😂


 


op not great. Gen okay, UKMO shaping up okay, GEFS best again herein, ECM will be crucial. 

The Beast from the East
04 January 2016 18:10:51

I think we need Ian to tell us how this will go horribly wrong again! Still quite a few ens members showing the path to mammaries verticus, but confidence is slowly increasing that we might see a 2-3 day cold snap at least


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
04 January 2016 18:13:28


 


Are you claiming ownership for the term toppler?


Blimey, it's only the weather!


Originally Posted by: John p 


I think you need to lighten up a tad. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
04 January 2016 18:13:41

Remember, what the models giveth, the models can take away 😎


That said, the low res set look impressive - especially the control.


And I claim ownership of the term Fantasy Island, and I have a witnessed document to prove it lol 😉


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
John p
04 January 2016 18:16:51


 


I think you need to lighten up a tad. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


laughing


That's kind of what I was saying to you;-)


Best set of ens by a wide margin tonight, hopefully the ECM  plays nicely!


 


 


Camberley, Surrey
beanoir
04 January 2016 18:37:20


 


You won't find one, that's for sure.


The term was first used on usw by the likes of Will Hand and Paul Bartlett in 1999, which is where I picked it up from. I used to use it a fair bit myself back when I started my daily run-downs, which was 15 years ago now!


In those early days it just meant a high "toppling" over the UK, with northerlies or NW'lies for a day or two followed by SW'lies as the high toppled SE'wards. That's still the definition I use today!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


It was one of the first weather slang words I learnt and it was certainly on TWO, c.2006/7  


Brings back memories that does


 


Langford, Bedfordshire
llamedos
04 January 2016 18:39:42


 


It was one of the first weather slang words I learnt and it was certainly on TWO, c.2006/7  


Brings back memories that does


 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
ITSY
04 January 2016 18:41:24

ECM heading into the critical window around 168-192 to orientate and amplify the high appropriately for us. Having said that it has totally severed the cortex in two by 168, albeit in not theost favourable position for us 

Brian Gaze
04 January 2016 18:44:45

ECM12z 192 looks interesting



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Karl Guille
04 January 2016 18:46:06
ECM 12z looking pretty good at T192 with -8 uppers into Scotland and the Low digging further south over Europe hopefully facilitating better positioning of the high up towards Iceland and then Scandanavia! 😀
St. Sampson
Guernsey
David M Porter
04 January 2016 18:56:48

The one reasonably consistent theme we are seeing now is that, for a time at least, it is likely to turn very much colder than we've been used to over the past couple of months.


I think the recent pressure rise over Scandi and thus absorbing the Euroslug High has probably done us a favour in at least allowing temps to return to something more seasonal than those that were commonplace in November and December.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
04 January 2016 18:57:54

ECM12 finishes on quite an interesting note.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
04 January 2016 18:59:08
It looks like the ECM 12z may not be buying into the 2 day toppler scenario. Another interesting run.
Karl Guille
04 January 2016 18:59:09

- 8 850hPA temps widely across the UK at T240 on the 12z ECM with a second low set to tumble down over the UK from Iceland in a second attempt to lower heights over Southern Europe and set up something with more of an easterly flavour! 😜


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Charmhills
04 January 2016 19:03:16



When you see the Jet diving down into North Africa than you know something is up.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
04 January 2016 19:15:56

What an absolute stunner of an ECM best run of the year. 168h looks interesting uppers borderline at this stage but very close to snow for many.


 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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