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Fothergill
06 January 2016 13:27:42


T850s of -4C are more than cold enough for snow, even with light precipitation.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


In my long experience IMBY at least, to get settling snow from a northerly such as this setup uppers of -7 to -8 min are required.

winterof79
06 January 2016 13:28:36

Well we have waited a while for some significant cold but that wait may have been worthwhile
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010600/ECM1-144.GIF?06-12
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016010600/UW144-21.GIF?06-06
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010600/gfsnh-0-156.png?0
A link up from our Atlantic ridge with the arctic high would be epic at some juncture

Originally Posted by: winterof79 


 


I said some juncture but didn't think the 06z would come up with this......


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010606/gfsnh-0-288.png?6


 


I need to lie down

Jason
LeedsLad123
06 January 2016 13:30:54


 


In my long experience IMBY at least, to get settling snow from a northerly such as this setup uppers of -7 to -8 min are required.


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


Well, my experience is different. We had falling snow in late October 2012 with T850s of -6C from a northerly. It didn't really settle because it lasted for about 3 minutes and was light.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Quantum
06 January 2016 13:31:47


 


In my long experience IMBY at least, to get settling snow from a northerly such as this setup uppers of -7 to -8 min are required.


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


It depends on the situation, for lake effect you need to be below about -6C, for warm occlusions -3C is fine.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
AirbusBod
06 January 2016 13:32:50

Gentlemen and ladies, Can I just thank you all for re invigorating my belief in humanity. Having had the shock of being told that Father Christmas isn't real ( still don't believe it ) to find this site with goodly folks getting as excited as Simon Danczuk hearing his text message alert go ping about the prospect of cold weather and snow refills my heart with joy. I don't have the faintest idea what most of you are talking about sometimes but being an end user in the aviation world makes me realise I want to learn a whole lot more.
So, on behalf of a virgin posters on these shores, I say thank you and may your ensembles be forever open to interpretation.
Now, where is this FI place then?


Ian

mildmildwest
06 January 2016 13:41:52

Gentlemen and ladies, Can I just thank you all for re invigorating my belief in humanity. Having had the shock of being told that Father Christmas isn't real ( still don't believe it ) to find this site with goodly folks getting as excited as Simon Danczuk hearing his text message alert go ping about the prospect of cold weather and snow refills my heart with joy. I don't have the faintest idea what most of you are talking about sometimes but being an end user in the aviation world makes me realise I want to learn a whole lot more.
So, on behalf of a virgin posters on these shores, I say thank you and may your ensembles be forever open to interpretation.
Now, where is this FI place then?

Originally Posted by: AirbusBod 


 


Hey I'm new too! I have been quietly studying this forum over the last month or so and have been visiting TWO for a few years now, and believe FI means 'Fantasy Island', meaning if a chart is say 10 days away and shows -15 850s, it is 'In FI' as it is too far in the future to take seriously.


Do any of the oldies want to clarify?

sunny coast
06 January 2016 13:43:31
lunchtime BBC 1 weather didnt say much about the cold next week just that colder air would filter south little snow in places but hopefully wont last too long that was Jay wynne. It was more about all the rain that was going to fall over the next 3 to 4 days
JACKO4EVER
06 January 2016 13:52:30


 


As well as the control run there's several very cold runs in the ensemble set. This is one of the coldest:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=18&mode=1&carte=0


 


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


Yes, and what is worth remembering is that if we can get a bit of a North Easterly direction to the wind we could be set for some pretty beefy snow showers pushing inland- the North Sea is still pretty warm for the time of year currently.

eastcoaster
06 January 2016 13:58:30


 


Yes, and what is worth remembering is that if we can get a bit of a North Easterly direction to the wind we could be set for some pretty beefy snow showers pushing inland- the North Sea is still pretty warm for the time of year currently.


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

if we could get that plus some deep cold 850's we really would be in business,. The north sea is very mild and it would quick off an awesome event down the east coast.

Phil24
06 January 2016 14:17:02
All looking very good for next week now. Fits in very nicely with my JFF winter forecast posted late November. forget anything beyond 5 days all it will do is disappoint you. Take note of Nsrobins he has quite rightly mentioned on one or two occasions that anything past 120hrs is great for giving indication to trends, but taking over protracted periods, the trend at the moment quite clearly is on the colder side even out in that FI place.

I tend not to try and analyse the models (mainly because i don't have a clue what they mean) but I read the information provided by those that do, not just here but from numerous other post from all over the web. I also tend to look at what the experts are saying on a global scale about weather patterns generally and there effects on our neck of the woods. It is quite clear that over the last few months something different is going on this winter.

My other source of information is folklore, (having grandparents that came from a farming background) this ties in very nicely with the idea that it is going to be quite a cold winter.

Please don't ask me to give a scientific response to my view, it will probably contain 2 words.



#761 Posted : 28 November 2015 10:53:34Originally Posted by: Phil24 Go to Quoted Post

Some light hearted predictions for January/February.

If you have moles in your garden, dig one out and measure its depth, below 2 and 1/2 foot you can expect a severe winter.

Anyone like a tasty rabbit!, well have you noticed how fat and juicy they have been of late, a sure sign of preparation for a severe winter.

When October and November are warm and rainy, January and February are frosty and cold; but if October and November be snow and frost, then January and February are open and mild.

Well loads more old folklore that seems to be fitting the signs of a very severe winter to come, so having measured the depth of the moles and gotten rather spoilt with a tasty rabbit or two, and harvested 3 times as many elderberries for the wine making, January looks set to creep quite quickly into some deep cold and what with the north sea being a little warm at the moment expect the first batch of easterly fed winds around the 10th with a nice helping of the white stuff.

Beyond that, well dig yer woolies out your gonna need them.



Whether Idle
06 January 2016 14:17:45


 


Yes, and what is worth remembering is that if we can get a bit of a North Easterly direction to the wind we could be set for some pretty beefy snow showers pushing inland- the North Sea is still pretty warm for the time of year currently.


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I think there is still a danger of the models "leading us up the garden path"



All we need now is a mild op run from the GFS or ECM and off we go again

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Saint Snow
06 January 2016 14:31:49

 


Hey I'm new too! I have been quietly studying this forum over the last month or so and have been visiting TWO for a few years now, and believe FI means 'Fantasy Island', meaning if a chart is say 10 days away and shows -15 850s, it is 'In FI' as it is too far in the future to take seriously.


Do any of the oldies want to clarify?


Originally Posted by: mildmildwest 


 


That's pretty much the biscuit.


 


Welcome to TWO, to you & AirBusBod. May your drifts be deep & your snowmen portly.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
JACKO4EVER
06 January 2016 14:33:34


 


I think there is still a danger of the models "leading us up the garden path"



All we need now is a mild op run from the GFS or ECM and off we go again


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


kmoorman
06 January 2016 14:34:22


 


I think there is still a danger of the models "leading us up the garden path"



All we need now is a mild op run from the GFS or ECM and off we go again


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


completely agree - we've had FAR better ensemble agreement, at much shorter range in the past (admittedly rare) and it's gone for the 1 in 20 mild option.


I'm naturally an optimist in life, but when it comes to winter snow, I'm more of a pessimist.   Nature has kicked me in the teeth (metaphorically) too many times for me to be anything else.


What I want to see id solid 100% agreement on the overall synoptic development once the low exits East before I get excited, there's still enough uncertainty there for it to all go wrong.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Saint Snow
06 January 2016 14:35:54

 


I think there is still a danger of the models "leading us up the garden path"


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


Always. There'll always be that bit of doubt until the mercury drops into negative & snowflakes the size of 50p's begin falling. At that point, focus shifts to scanning the MO for depressing signs of a breakdown.


 



 



All we need now is a mild op run from the GFS or ECM and off we go again


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


And the roller coaster will take another turn.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Shropshire
06 January 2016 14:44:42


 


completely agree - we've had FAR better ensemble agreement, at much shorter range in the past (admittedly rare) and it's gone for the 1 in 20 mild option.


I'm naturally an optimist in life, but when it comes to winter snow, I'm more of a pessimist.   Nature has kicked me in the teeth (metaphorically) too many times for me to be anything else.


What I want to see id solid 100% agreement on the overall synoptic development once the low exits East before I get excited, there's still enough uncertainty there for it to all go wrong.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


There certainly is plenty of time for it to go wrong; the METO have updated for next week and they still see what presumably is a toppler even shorter than the ECM OP this morning.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Russwirral
06 January 2016 14:45:42


 


 


Always. There'll always be that bit of doubt until the mercury drops into negative & snowflakes the size of 50p's begin falling. At that point, focus shifts to scanning the MO for depressing signs of a breakdown.


 



 


 


And the roller coaster will take another turn.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


I remember back in 2013 it reached a point where i didnt actually care about the models anymore.  I had seen enough snow I just wanted winter over....  This was a very rare emotion for me.


 


obviously at that point winter proved how much it hated me and continued pretty much into April and May.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
kmoorman
06 January 2016 14:50:20


 


 


There certainly is plenty of time for it to go wrong; the METO have updated for next week and they still see what presumably is a toppler even shorter than the ECM OP this morning.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Waa it Feb 2009 where 20 out of 21 ensemble members had 'The Beast from the East' forecast at 96 hours out, and it then fell apart from there?

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
AirbusBod
06 January 2016 14:56:23


 


 


I remember back in 2013 it reached a point where i didnt actually care about the models anymore.  I had seen enough snow I just wanted winter over....  This was a very rare emotion for me.


 


obviously at that point winter proved how much it hated me and continued pretty much into April and May.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Burn him! Burn him! ( To be said in true Monty Python style ) 

Russwirral
06 January 2016 14:58:53


 


 


Waa it Feb 2009 where 20 out of 21 ensemble members had 'The Beast from the East' forecast at 96 hours out, and it then fell apart from there?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


ah yes...


i remember that


 


would be great if we could save down classic threads to relive the excitement.


 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
06 January 2016 14:58:59


 


 


There certainly is plenty of time for it to go wrong; the METO have updated for next week and they still see what presumably is a toppler even shorter than the ECM OP this morning.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes that is a bit of a concern... although it took them long enough to even mention colder weather at all: as of Xmas they said:


 


UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Jan 2016 to Saturday 23 Jan 2016:

The middle part of January is expected to start unsettled, mild and windy at times, with mainly westerly winds. The wettest and windiest weather is likely to occur in the north and west where it is likely to be wetter than average, although parts of the southeast may be slightly drier than average. Temperatures will generally be above average, with any snowfall likely to be confined to the north. Around the middle of the month there are signs that it will become somewhat drier, especially in the south and east. Later in the month there are weak signals the wind will turn more northwesterly, allowing temperatures to return to near normal, but the chance of a prolonged cold spells remains low.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Islander
06 January 2016 15:00:53

12z coming out very soon, time to take a very deep breath! Anyone want to jump behind the sofa with me? Reminds me of when I was scared by the daleks when I was about 7...! It's either going to be one of these  one of these  or plenty of these 

Guernsey
Russwirral
06 January 2016 15:05:32
i wouldnt be surprised to see at least a couple of downgrades. However going on the temperature profiles this morning, i wouldnt be surprised to see the cold get colder before that. I think the GFS is still under cooking this a little.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Notty
06 January 2016 15:06:42


 


 


Waa it Feb 2009 where 20 out of 21 ensemble members had 'The Beast from the East' forecast at 96 hours out, and it then fell apart from there?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


I remember it well. It was "nailed on". ECM couldn't be wrong at 96 hours etc. The forum went into meltdown then chaos theory prevailed in the atmosphere and the ECM forecast changed in the morning ... I was gutted.


I didn't realise it was so long ago. I wonder if they remodelled the ECM computer model based on lessons learned ...

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
kmoorman
06 January 2016 15:06:56


 


 


ah yes...


i remember that


 


would be great if we could save down classic threads to relive the excitement.


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


This is it.


https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/51039-the-easterly-that-never-was-a-synoptic-recap/


 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

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