Some insane amounts of snow 324h + another good run all in all

That's a heck of a chart, coming off the back of a week's cold weather:

Quite. TBH that is the most interesting part - above and beyond the minutai of will it snow IMBY, the constant theme over the last 24-48hrs has been the extension of cold into the foreseeable, whether from the N, NW, NE or E.

maybe you're right, but talk about half-glass-full syndrome!

Sort of earlier on

years of beatings from the GFS leaves me very pessimistic of even the slightest issue arising.

Still - ill buzz off this run until 9.30 then get nervous again.

Assuming the typist has got beyond 'Control+C' followed by 'Control+V' 

Joking aside, there's nothing there that says this will be more than the 2-3 day event to which they have referred.  Still doubt about how that pattern evolves.  Unlike the GFS there's that LP 1,500 miles west of Iberia: whilst it's supporting the block it's fine but what if it moves ENE?

Apart from that the T+144 chart isn't spectacular for the UK

Surprising GFS charts this evening - really did expect some complications and a downgrade not what has happened. Let' see what ECM comes out with - if that trends colder too we could be looking at something very interesting cold wise. Whatever happens best charts I have seen since March 2013 - some nice eye candy there. Hope it doesn't go the way of late Jan 2015 when we had potential but it just wasn't cold enough for most people and resulted in temporary slush away from the north and high ground. 

GEFS ensemble mean (bias corrected) chart at T+168:

Dont think it was 2009 guys, because on 2nd Feb 2009 we had 20 to 40cms of snow an easterly across parts of the SE (including 15cm in London). The month then continued coldish, with the snow focus shifting to the SW and Midlands etc. Maybe it was 2007, but definitely a Feb..........

That chart says to me GAME ON. If we get to a point where the entire ensemble is going for it even with slightly different starting data, then in my mind it is locked in.

Mountain torque prevalent on that chart around scandi - which also explains the Strat warming pointed out earlier.

Looks good enough to me. Approx 523dam 1000-850mb thickness even for me in central southern England and plenty of troughs in the flow.

Strange but fab chart almost like a two sided mirror

A quite remarkable looking chart and only a week away.

What's not to like about that run from GFS?

Maybe the death of the Arctic and Greenland highs towards the end and slow, slow move towards a topple, which is so far in FI it can almost be disregarded anyway?...
But.. and I'm sorry to shout.... look at the SSW appearing for the 3rd run in a row.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=10&carte=1

Hope "springs" eternal.

And "spring" is ironic, because you know what's going to happen? We're going to get bouts of winter which last into April.

I feel it......

GEFS12z update looks reasonable for cold weather fans.