There is UKMO's deepening low over the Low Countires on the 13th = tidal surge over the North Sea. That was something the GFS tried to pick up on a few days ago - and that, too, is also coming back on their output.

I think the route to the colder weather is going to be via the long way winding uphill road - and probably get lost on the way. 

I love how the Greenland/mid-Atlantic High looks like it's sat on that Atlantic low 

I wouldn't worry, roll it on a few frames and a little low spins out of the main Scandinavian Low, moving SW'wards over the UK

(edit: well, actually, I wouldn't worry about the detail at all so far out; it'll change so much)

Very nice looking ukmo at day 5

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

Ukmo at day 6 cold but maybe high pressure to the south could be bothersome later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

At T+210 GFS has the Arctic high just north of Greenland, which is a much better location than the previous run.

The next LP over Canada is tracking north, which is another good sign.

Anyone starts mentioning Thames Streamers and I may not be able to contain myself from telling people......

Quite a different shape to the GH by this stage with a broader but less meridional loop of heights

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

Still cannot grumble, with even a blob of yellow up over the pole!

I don't like it when the Atlantic high starts taking on that "round" look though, for long-term prospects...

I thought you were predicting another Ice Age?  You'll get your snow from that....

That almost looks 2010'ish

I know what you mean. Heralds an eastward shift.

Not happening so far though......

I'm meant to be working so i'll be brief. Anyone unhappy with the GFS Op needs to see a psychiatrist.

UKMO also excellent, GEM not great sadly, but with the American and British model on board it's now all eyes to the GEFS ens and ECM to assess where these runs lie. Both are improvements on the earlier outputs. GFSP, for what its worth, brings the Atlantic back by mid FI - but its silly to think about the ending of this impending spell before its even arrived. Get it here first then see what happens. The runs also show the pointlessness of searching for snowmaggedon in every run - each one will change, and most showery bursts of heavy snow won't become apparent until wtihin T+48 so, for the time being, be content!

EDIT (I can't help myself): GFSop = northerly, northerly, northeasterly, slider low, Greenland reload, nationwide sub-8 uppers. Some of the comments that sound pessimistic must be from people viewing different models to me!

Very different by T+240 compared with the 06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Arctic high pressure almost gone, no heights over northern Russia and what looks like a very very slow 'toppler-like' High in mid-Atlantic very slowly rolling our way.

What comes next is pretty irrelevant but it's hard to see the Atlantic powering through in the way the 06z showed at the end.

Yes, Michael, I was looking at the rainfall totals and you've got another dollop over the next 5-6 days.  Not great for one or two other areas either, although nothing like as bad as the south-weserly conveyor delivered in December.

See my above quote. look at the orientation of highs, of the mean wind direction, of the jet, of the arctic profile etc before jumping to conclusions. a few days ago i said about missing the wood for the trees. this run is OUTSTANDING.

Okay, the slider low at T+infinity has a mild sector within it, albeit one that leads to a reload and some serious back-edge and front-edge snow, but the pattern is what is important, and that - to me at least - looks like one too good to turn down in any British winter.

so - for a few hours - theres a direct link between siberia and spain.