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SJV
09 January 2016 10:06:21

GFS 6z seems similar to ECM so far...


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1144.gif
The GFS is showing a rather large band of rain sleet and snow down the western side of the UK. .... rain the further south you go

Other changes to....

Originally Posted by: Lazy Wind 


Another run showing a snow event for Thursday 

Gusty
09 January 2016 10:07:15

ooh. 6z GFS.


The Channel / Northern France runner is back..this time we have sub -5c 850Hpa over the UK.  Similar to ECM. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Gusty
09 January 2016 10:13:46

Just look at all that really cold air now to our north and east. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gooner
09 January 2016 10:13:59

lowest temps since last Winter are on the way , kills dead the theory from matey boy that November would have colder days than J F M

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 10:18:08

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010906/gfsnh-0-150.png?6


We need pressure to build in the right place now

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Shropshire
09 January 2016 10:24:47

Not great, but at least the 06z is a bit more like the ECM and more reflective of the GFS 00z ensembles.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Hippydave
09 January 2016 10:26:53


 


Yes, you have to remember the ECM ensembles show surface temperature which can tell a very different story to the GFS ensembles showing 850mb temperature. 


The ECM would probably look unspectacular in terms of 850s but at this time of the year it will be a lot colder at the surface with 850s of 0C and a UK high than with 850s of -5c and a windy low pressure setup.


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not that it negates your point but the 850s on the ECM are all sub zero, with -5ish over a fair bit of England right up to T240


Someone else was calling the ECM 'faux cold' earlier which I nearly posted to disagree with too - it's not a warm high with stagnating cold imo. It's a chilly high that would get colder with stagnating cold air.



 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
SJV
09 January 2016 10:27:18


Not great, but at least the 06z is a bit more like the ECM and more reflective of the GFS 00z ensembles.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes it's definitely leaning that way. The key will be in the next few frames to see if the low west of Spain can stay out west rather than steamroller over the UK like previous GFS runs.

The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 10:27:20

at least an improvement on the 00z

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Tim A
09 January 2016 10:28:45

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.gif



Better now that the -5hpa 850's are well into the South by Wed morning.
Although they retreat slightlyafter that it's in association with the fun and games of the low .

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
SJV
09 January 2016 10:30:24


at least an improvement on the 00z


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes it's backtracking towards ECM with every run now, which is an encouraging trend. It's still more progressive with the low, but it keeps the cold over us a little longer than the 00z.


Good signs 

SJV
09 January 2016 10:34:21

Midlands northwards just about hangs on to the cold through next weekend...


Polar Low
09 January 2016 10:58:17

 Good grief japs 1080mb at grenny having a laugh is she not.


kmoorman
09 January 2016 11:02:09
Impressive JMA there, and only 3 days away
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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SJV
09 January 2016 11:03:25


 Good grief japs 1080mb at grenny having a laugh is she not.



Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


It's not the first time either. JMA has shown 1080mb for 2 days now 

The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 11:06:53

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-1-108.png


GFS control so far


The interaction between the Icelandic shortwave and the one coming up from the south is crucial

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 11:11:02

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-1-138.png


Wed-Fri looking like a nowcast event. Who knows what will come out of the sky


perhaps evap cooling will help


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 11:16:22

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-0-168.png


Sadly, atlantic comes through for the south, but cold hangs on in the north

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bertwhistle
09 January 2016 11:16:26


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-1-108.png


GFS control so far


The interaction between the Icelandic shortwave and the one coming up from the south is crucial


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Agreed - the Greenie High needs to give a bit more of a push, perhaps try to marry with its Atlantic comrade.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Polar Low
09 January 2016 11:16:49

Some very good solutions on the table


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=138


 


 


 


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-1-138.png


Wed-Fri looking like a nowcast event. Who knows what will come out of the sky


perhaps evap cooling will help


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 11:17:42

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-1-174.png


Though pressure trying to build in a better position


What a mess!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bertwhistle
09 January 2016 11:21:09

Is GFS just reverting to the December pattern by default? I hoped we'd seen the back of the LP locomotive for a while.


 


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_288_mslp850.png?cb=518

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
JACKO4EVER
09 January 2016 11:21:41


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010906/gens-0-1-138.png


Wed-Fri looking like a nowcast event. Who knows what will come out of the sky


perhaps evap cooling will help


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Just thinking the same Beast, someone will get a good dumping I am sure- a little elevation may help or overnight snowfall happen- some lamp post watching may well be in order. Some of the marginal events lead to the best snowfalls IMO

Polar Low
09 January 2016 11:24:14

Its not rocket science to see the difference perhaps gfs has a lot of adjustment to do Im very glad ecm shows what it does even at that FI time


Rob K
09 January 2016 11:25:24
GFS showing a bit more potential but the op run still reverts to Euroslug in the latter reaches.

In the meantime we hang on to HP for a little longer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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