O/T

The one I have just seen said chilly with wintry ppn around and getting colder towards the end of the week

you know I have read through the last few pages- and the opinions range from milder weather pushing in easily to cold with easterly promise.

so all options are to be considered- the only certainty is uncertainty. A lot of the snow will undoubtedly be nowcast situations- so best for us to go with what the pro forecasters say- and as Marcus has highlighted- it's turning colder through the week.

I reckon at this range, because of their roles as publicly-accountable bodies, the BBC and MEt O would hedge more if they weren't pretty confident of a cold spell at least through to the weekend?

I think there's a reasonable degree of confidence as you say. What's more uncertain is if the cold spell will be 'noticeable' in the south. 

UKMO 120h

Another poor GFS

Euros likely to follow now. It cant be wrong again

May  get the SHOW RISK CHART  out from last year.   Used it on on January 27 th 2015......

UKMO 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016010912/UW144-21.GIF?09-17

Very decent UKMO. The key is how the NWP handles the shortwave coming off the seaboard into the Central Atlantic, the GFS pushes it East to split the Atlantic High. The UKMO has it but it fails to make enough of an impact to prevent a linkage of the heights in the Atlantic and therefore we stay chilly at day 6.

Why is that

Over in the US they are already saying they dont like the early stages of the GFS , so why is it likely to be right

Currently NCEP think theres less chance of todays GFS 00 and 06hrs runs being correct for the ne USA.

THE GFS TRACK IS ALSO FURTHER S AND DEEPENS MUCH MORE
RAPIDLY THAN THE EC WED AFTN. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON WED WITH CAA
AND STRONG WINDS...BUT SCALED BACK ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS SINCE
THE LOW LOOKS TOO DEEP.
 

how can you come to that conclusion ??? Id take ecm and ukmo over gfs anytime .

I disagree. Seems not too dissimilar to the 6z run. Still suggesting a snow event for the spine of the country on Thursday, too 

Cold air still in place on Saturday 

you realise what you have said makes no sense!!

well, met office 12z are very different so it can be!

It can be wrong, remember January 2013 ? It took the GFS until around T84 to get it right.

Yes it all breaks down with a high of -5°C next Saturday inland from here. It is the case of the third GFS run moving towards the scenario suggests by the Euros.  Why would you expect the GFS which has been all over the place to be correct compared with the UKMO and ECM which have been very steady with fully changing realistic evolutions. I'm baffled. It may be psychology but it's not really model analysis Beast (i.e. It's not what the charts show now or have done in the last few days*). 

*Whether they turn around to match your latest prediction remains to be seen. Even the GFS has something other than the two day toppler you promised a couple of days ago. 

Hard to believe that one shortwave can break the link and change the whole run

Down here we are unlikely to see anything wintry as Brian mentioned, toppler or not.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

UKMO now on wetter, hard to say where it would go but I would say still cold by day 8.

The UKMO would give better chances but whatever happens the problem for Southern areas will be PPN breaking up as it gets down there.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016010912/gem-0-132.png?12

GEM a bit more like UKMO so far

Why?  They always spoil it.