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Whether Idle
10 January 2016 17:43:10

NAVGEM sides more with UKMO and GEM, here at 132:Edit - and below the CMA goes for a similar scenario at 144....



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
10 January 2016 17:50:10

GEFS12z update:


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Nordic Snowman
10 January 2016 17:56:44

GFS PS @ 240:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel2401.gif


Thank god there are very few signs of a Scandi High  I can't take this dry, breezy and bitter cold for much longer

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Rob K
10 January 2016 18:13:01


 


We're still in the same position that we have been for quite a few runs now.


Essentially GFS still wants to spit some energy off the main LP that moves up to Arctic Canada from T+48.  An innocous shallow trough forms south of the tip of Greenland which cuts of any WAA from the next LP system and opens the door for energy to surge east.


UKMO just shows the trough dissipating which both keeps the residual upper ridge in place and allows for the next burst of WAA.


GEM shows the same trough, albeit slightly later, but again like UKMO doesn't develop it.


I guess the good news is that we're only 24-48 hours from having this resolved.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


This is the key. We need to look at what actually happens over the next couple of days and see which model was right. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
10 January 2016 18:13:28


ECM at 72

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
10 January 2016 18:16:09

ECM at 96 keeps hope alive - if only that HP cell to our SW could join up properly with the Greenie HP


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016011012/ECH0-96.GIF


 

New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
10 January 2016 18:22:56
Looks like a toppler.
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
10 January 2016 18:23:26

ECM 120 starts to let the side down - going the GFS route I am afraid

New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
10 January 2016 18:24:38

Looks like a toppler.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Afraid so - heights dropping to the north at t+120 - does not go with UK charts.

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
10 January 2016 18:28:06

ECM12z 144 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Zubzero
10 January 2016 18:28:54


ECM 120 starts to let the side down - going the GFS route I am afraid


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Nothing like the GFS much better if you like cold weather

Rob K
10 January 2016 18:29:45

Indeed, ECM and GFS are still poles apart. Very chilly on ECM at 144.


518 dam in the east http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/144_thickuk.png?cb=745


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
10 January 2016 18:32:04
It's cold but I can't see how it can build north again
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
10 January 2016 18:32:50


ECM 120 starts to let the side down - going the GFS route I am afraid


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Its better than GFS but not as good as UKMO IMO......middle ground



It's cold for sure

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
10 January 2016 18:36:48
The much derided GFS may be owed a few apologies
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
10 January 2016 18:37:19

ECM looks a lot closer to GFS now, 168:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/168_mslp500.png?cb=441

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
eastcoaster
10 January 2016 18:39:06
I suspect I'd see a bit of the white stuff from the ecm run, a fairly direct northerly is always pretty good for NE Norfolk and east Suffolk. However, altogether its pretty uninspiring stuff.
SJV
10 January 2016 18:41:14

ECM going the GFS route you suspect after next weekend. That said the GFS Op was one of the milder options after the 17th so I expect this ECM 12z will be a mild outlier, too.


edit: quite a messy picture at t192


David M Porter
10 January 2016 18:42:13

The much derided GFS may be owed a few apologies

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Only if it is ultimately proved correct. We're a long way from knowing that at the moment.


Tomorrow morning's runs will be very interesting to see I reckon. Next weekend is still an awful long way off in forecasting terms.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Whether Idle
10 January 2016 18:42:39


 


Its better than GFS but not as good as UKMO IMO......middle ground



It's cold for sure


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Middle ground "blended" solution indeed. And then further grist is added to the model mill: The JMA appears to be in between UKMO and ECM at 132:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
10 January 2016 18:51:57
The ec ens this morning were not that good so this poor run should not come as a surprise. Looks like we must make the most of Thursday and Friday as it maybe the only chance to see some snow for a while
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Whether Idle
10 January 2016 18:53:23

So.


Its going to get colder next week.


Hill snow in the north , wintry showers, overnight frosts.


A 5 day colder spell Thursday  to Monday inclusive by the looks of it, best guess at the moment.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
10 January 2016 18:57:14
We seems to have cross model agreement on a euroslug at day 10.
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SJV
10 January 2016 18:57:48

Well deep in FI ECM sides with the GFS. I must say despite a frigid and encouraging start, ECM goes rapidly downhill thereafter.



GFS at the same time



Contrast this to the 00z ECM which had high pressure slap bang over us next Wednesday and the cold still there 



Whichever way you look at it we have a cold week to come with a focus on some very low night-time minima later in the week 


Darren's postage stamps for the ECM 12z will be interesting to view. I still think high pressure will win a la the 00z ECM and keep things settled and cold going into the week after next, but that's half based on the often overly progressive/flatter GFS. 


UKMO siding with JMA and GEM for now, but we're far from a Euro slug return so no need for the razorblades yet, after all we're looking at t+216 here!


We seems to have cross model agreement on a euroslug at day 10.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It might end up going that way (lets hope not!) but I'm not sure it's all agreed across the models that the Euro high is going to dominate after next weekend?

Gooner
10 January 2016 19:04:14

Good post SJV , seems about right

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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