GEFS6 update. Hope these are wrong!

---

 

Yes - a spectrum is singular. The clue is the "a"....

 

In a deterministic system the same starting conditions lead to the same outcome every time. There is only one "solution".

The argument you are seeking to make relies on defining a system that is boundless. As that is impossible in practical terms there will always be exogenous events. Sometimes these events will occur between forecast and realisation.

 

---

surprisingly large split in the London ensembles IMO.

 

Really? A few days back GFS was showing an Azores Low powering through the country mid-week this week. GFS has moderated it's stance considerably toward the Euros as time has gone on. And don't forget that even if UKMO starts showing a collapsing high over the UK that doesn't mean it was incorrect - that's just the march of time bring new days into view of the model!

---

A good comeback and also dialectical thinking might prove to enduce yet more debate.

The level of debate keeps coming down another level when these discussions start such as by introducing human actions and then eventually the quantum levels, thats why I led off with comparing it to 'free will' versus 'determinism' where the eventual answer is no doubt to be found.

This is a contested area but the majority of scientists weigh towards determinism these days.

Anyways I am also aware that when these debates get to this level they tend to go on endlessly and round in circles as there isn't as yet complete consensus on 'free will' versus 'determinism'.

Therefore I will politely state it is my opinion that the weather is completely determined and let my side of the arguement rest there so as not to drift off topic :)

P.S. I love the discussion and appreciate the great analysis in the MOD thread! I am a long time lurker and rare poster.

It's certainly beginning to look that way. There's been growing support for the GFS op from GEFS as time goes by. The UKMO has been resolute recently but it is looking increasingly isolated today. The chances of the high slipping SE in the UKMO 12z t144 chart look good.

---

Agreed.  Saved me saying it.

---

Interesting to observe the large cold cluster on days 6, 7 and 8.  The GFS 2m temps would look different I suspect.  The 144 day 6 chart on 18th is in the mildest quadrant and is unlikely IMHO to be correct in actuality.

---

Indeed and there's certainly a significant difference in emphasis in the dominant clustering between the available ECM and GFS ens for London, though the lower graph is the more recent data. It would be good to be able to plot these to the same scale.

 

 

 

---

 

I think so Mike, people are nervous about another Euro High scenario but there are reasons for believing it won't be a prolonged slug, but either way High pressure to the South and the jet heading for Scandi is going to reassert, at least for a time.

 

 

---

Sorry if it feels like I'm picking on you,but did r you say at least four weeks earlier?

---

Maybe he's adjusted his stance in a spirit of seeking not to be perceived as antagonistic (not that I saw it in this way in any case tbh)? No real need to bring up earlier posts I don't think.

---

I like these charts Brian

 

---

I wonder why the GFS consistently shows higher 2m temps than ECM right from the start?

---

 

John what I said was that once we were in the sort of projected set-up shown by the ECM/GFS at day 8/9 or so then that has, in recent years, tended to have at least a 4 week shelf life from commencement.

There are reasons to believe it may not on this occasion, but we should note the METO see HP close to the  South and the jet to the North in their extended outlook, though they have dropped the 'above average' from their very latest update.

 

 

---

Echo that, although it looks as if that wintry stuff will hang around longer for you. Flash in the pan maybe here, but that's OK as I can remember the resignation almost at end of December and how it started to spoil my cider!

---

I am not saying that the Atlantic won't win out eventually, but the models often underestimate the ability of the cold air to fend off the approach of Atlantic fronts. Although shown as a Monday snowy breakdown by some models, I would not be surprised to see this gradually put back in both time and eastward progression.

---

I think you're probably right, but as Stormchaser said, it's premature to call time on this.... Only 36 hours ago, the GFS op had it cold out til the end of next week, with substantial support from its ensembles.  It's not time to throw in the towel....

---

CFS in about 6 days time next Monday: Should give pause for thought?

---

Looks very interesting!! Shows what's possible, and wouldn't discount it given huge uncertainty in output currently.

---

On topic from now. Any more discussion via PM to mods please. 🙂

---

Will it still  be it there in 6 hours.😁

A virtual pint it wont be

GEM Control from the 00z. Spooky:

 

---

Right this evening, we will end up with and easterly at 144 or 168. Roll up for your predictions.

---