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Gooner
12 January 2016 16:20:48

120 meto is well, different

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


so is the 144 blimey


 


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Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
12 January 2016 16:20:58

UKMO 144 Game on


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Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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warrenb
12 January 2016 16:21:47
And as for the 144 UkMO, well don't put your woolies away just yet
Tonbridge 45m 
Arbroath 1320
12 January 2016 16:23:09


UKMO 144 Game on


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Originally Posted by: Gusty 


And so the divergence continues. Deary me. How long can this go on

GGTTH
Tractor Boy
12 January 2016 16:23:51

Still looking good for a snowy spell on Monday... based on past form I wouldn't be surprised to see it getting pushed further and further south and struggle to make inroads at all.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


If the trend continues then the front may not make landfall

Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Whiteout
12 January 2016 16:23:51

Still looking good for a snowy spell on Monday... based on past form I wouldn't be surprised to see it getting pushed further and further south and struggle to make inroads at all.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Just what I was thinking Rob.


Stunning MetO tonight 

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
kmoorman
12 January 2016 16:25:00

120 meto is well, different

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


POTENTIAL....


UserPostedImage

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
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Tractor Boy
12 January 2016 16:25:06

 


And so the divergence continues. Deary me. How long can this go on


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


As long as the model's respective algorithms differ

Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Russwirral
12 January 2016 16:25:42
Gooner
12 January 2016 16:26:28

Quite incredible how the UKMO is just refusing the Atlantic story

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
12 January 2016 16:26:46

GFS 144 is clearly playing catch up wth the UKMO ! Two days ago the GFS had the atlantic sweeping back in by Saturday..now we are faced with a SW England snow event struggling eastwards agains't the block with very cold air still embedded comfortably by Monday.



A crucial turn of events tonight IMO


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Charmhills
12 January 2016 16:27:33


Not quite sure why a few are bashing GFS for its different outcomes. The UKMO would have the same issues if it went beyond 144. ECM ENS and GEFS are showing many possible outcomes (which is very normal) but IMO, the trend is growing for an Atlantic breakthrough... at least temporarily.


I still think UKMO will begin cracking this evening with the High slowly being eroded and nudged ESE.


 


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


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Sure about that Mike!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
warrenb
12 January 2016 16:28:26
Well to be honest after 96 hours either the GFS is very wrong, so ignore the rest of the run, or the UKMO has been given false data
Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:29:32


 


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Sure about that Mike!


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 


I think Mike would be happy enough with that chart too!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Whiteout
12 January 2016 16:30:48

I think I saw a post from Fergie saying that there were signs of HP being to the W/NW of the U.K.

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Arbroath 1320
12 January 2016 16:30:54

Well to be honest after 96 hours either the GFS is very wrong, so ignore the rest of the run, or the UKMO has been given false data

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Anyone for a cracking pub run tonight

GGTTH
Brian Gaze
12 January 2016 16:31:05

GEM12z looks closer to GFS tonight.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:31:40

GFS is pretty consistent in sweeping the mild air through eventually... at 180hrs it is almost the same as 06Z. 


 


Edit... GEM at 180 is also a SW clean sweep. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
12 January 2016 16:33:05


 


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Sure about that Mike!


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Wow, that may well put the cat among the pigeons!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
stophe
12 January 2016 16:33:51

Ukmo on wetter.


Whiteout
12 January 2016 16:34:04


 


 


POTENTIAL....


UserPostedImage


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


I think you would take that chart Kieron 

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
warrenb
12 January 2016 16:34:27
well looking at the JMA 6Z run this morning, you can kind of see how the UKMO gets there.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016011206/J84-21.GIF?12-6 
Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:37:52
So far the UKMO is the only one showing any sign of longer range potential... GFS and GEM are about as dire as you can get by 180.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
beanoir
12 January 2016 16:39:01
The latest UKMO certainly supports their latest forecasts.


Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 26 Jan 2016:

The weekend will continue cold and bright for most with widespread overnight frosts. There will be a few sleet or snow showers, mainly in the north and east. The start of next week should continue much the same, although more unsettled conditions are likely to spread slowly in from the west early to mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west, where it could turn windy at times.
Langford, Bedfordshire
Brian Gaze
12 January 2016 16:40:04

So far the UKMO is the only one showing any sign of longer range potential... GFS and GEM are about as dire as you can get by 180.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It's a good point. If we are to see a significantly longer cold spell the GEFS will need to flip too. It does happen. Will be a very interesting few days.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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