theweatheroutlook

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some faraway beach
12 January 2016 18:32:34

144 hrs and the ECM 12z looking different from the 00z over the UK. Low pressure angling SE into the Med instead of NE towards scotland


 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Whether Idle
12 January 2016 18:33:13


Great ECM T+144 chart, Monday looking increasingly 'wintry' 


As far as Matt Hugo goes, his view changes on each GFS run 


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Well observed.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
12 January 2016 18:34:55


144 hrs and the ECM 12z looking different from the 00z over the UK. Low pressure angling SE into the Med instead of NE towards scotland


 


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


I would say ECM and UKMO are more a kin ...........................at the moment GFS is lagging behind. ( after the current set of runs I should add)

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Steve Murr
12 January 2016 18:35:42
Ha Ha

UKMO all over ECM like a tramp on chips .... & where does that leave the FFS model....

ECM nearly there at 144 - but has deep surface cold already entrenched by then ...

Ian / shropshire + 5c over england by 192 you say??.....
Whether Idle
12 January 2016 18:36:53


 


I would say ECM and UKMO are more a kin ...........................at the moment GFS is lagging behind. ( after the current set of runs I should add)


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


This has been the mother of all model battles and Id say UKMO is well on top, GFS is battered and bemused, dazed and confused.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
12 January 2016 18:37:51

The resolution on the Arpege data sets is incredible. It's astonishing that Meteo France now make this available whilst the UK Met make a thinned 2.5 deg dataset with only a few parameters as their free offering. This is the 2m temp forecast for 06:00GMT Sat.


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
12 January 2016 18:39:25


 


This has been the mother of all model battles and Id say UKMO is well on top, GFS is battered and bemused, dazed and confused.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


As I said earlier the Fax at120 will be interesting

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


John p
12 January 2016 18:44:50

Ha Ha

UKMO all over ECM like a tramp on chips .... & where does that leave the FFS model....

ECM nearly there at 144 - but has deep surface cold already entrenched by then ...

Ian / shropshire + 5c over england by 192 you say??.....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Not far off at 192 to be fair! 


 

Camberley, Surrey
Downpour
12 January 2016 18:45:14
GFS now isolated. I've had a good hunch about this spell for a while, despite my usual pessimism. Just feels like a Jan 2013 scenario from me. Now we just need a rogue French system to destroy London from out of nowhere.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
12 January 2016 18:45:42

Ha Ha

UKMO all over ECM like a tramp on chips .... & where does that leave the FFS model....

ECM nearly there at 144 - but has deep surface cold already entrenched by then ...

Ian / shropshire + 5c over england by 192 you say??.....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Makes it.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bertwhistle
12 January 2016 18:49:52

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/168_mslp850.png?cb=330


 


Every chance for that Euro-N.Atlantic (SE of Iceland) ridge to spawn a little high over, say, NE Scotland; now, should such a whimsy intensify, it would slow down the Atlantic again.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Downpour
12 January 2016 18:50:07
In the ever-mild SW only. Baltic for much of England, more than a week from now.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Steve Murr
12 January 2016 18:52:25
Lol - so ignoring the entire change on the ECM with plenty of snow & deep cold air entrenched at 96-144 you lemmings choose to highlight ians post -
However ians post in context 100% meant that that line spreads NE & continues on its endless march NE
So the 216 & 240 would be a blowtorch-

When infact the reality of just the ECm is the -8c line is already moving back South at that point & theres plenty of snow over northern parts which wasnt even considered in the 00z run

Is this suddenly the mild supporters club?
Someone who said just 12 hours ago that 4 weeks of mild weather was on our doorstep.....
Shropshire
12 January 2016 18:53:33

Yes, as I thought a slower evolution to milder weather from the ECM.


 


Not sure why people are doubting the day 8/9 charts , historically if the first system stalls/slips SE then the second system breaks through a couple of days later.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
12 January 2016 18:54:27

Brian, there seems to be a bit of a glitch with the UK thickness charts for ECM as they often don't have any labels for the dam lines.

eg. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/120_thickuk.png?cb


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
12 January 2016 18:55:27


Yes, as I thought a slower evolution to milder weather from the ECM.


 


Not sure why people are doubting the day 8/9 charts , historically if the first system stalls/slips SE then the second system breaks through a couple of days later.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 You could be right of course but it's so hard to recall... give us an example month and year.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
doctormog
12 January 2016 18:56:39
I would be very careful if you are in the "mild camp" or "cold camp" re. claiming victory or getting one over on each other. The entire time period of this cold snap/blip/spell is yet to even start. Now is not the time for gloating (if there ever is one).

One thing I will say is that the outlook is both interesting and uncertain. Every day seems to bring a slight change in the options and I'm not sure that will change over the next day or two. To what, I don't know!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
NickR
12 January 2016 18:57:58

Lol - so ignoring the entire change on the ECM with plenty of snow & deep cold air entrenched at 96-144 you lemmings choose to highlight ians post -
However ians post in context 100% meant that that line spreads NE & continues on its endless march NE
So the 216 & 240 would be a blowtorch-

When infact the reality of just the ECm is the -8c line is already moving back South at that point & theres plenty of snow over northern parts which wasnt even considered in the 00z run

Is this suddenly the mild supporters club?
Someone who said just 12 hours ago that 4 weeks of mild weather was on our doorstep.....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


There is no need for such uncalled for personal comments. I also don't think the personal tone directed at Shropshire is called for. For heaven's sake, it's just model analysis. Can we not keep it civil? I don't see any "mild supporters club". If people comment on Shropshire's posts and/or think they might be accurate, then that's their right. Just like people (here and there) often highlight and praise your posts. I don't see the difference. 


Differences of opinion are great - but just argue against someone else's take. No need to invoke such barbs.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
SJV
12 January 2016 18:59:40

Lol - so ignoring the entire change on the ECM with plenty of snow & deep cold air entrenched at 96-144 you lemmings choose to highlight ians post -
However ians post in context 100% meant that that line spreads NE & continues on its endless march NE
So the 216 & 240 would be a blowtorch-

When infact the reality of just the ECm is the -8c line is already moving back South at that point & theres plenty of snow over northern parts which wasnt even considered in the 00z run

Is this suddenly the mild supporters club?
Someone who said just 12 hours ago that 4 weeks of mild weather was on our doorstep.....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


You started it 


Encouraging ECM run, but not perfect. You do feel something has to give, and we're long overdue a spell in the deep freezer 


We are looking still at the breakdown of cold past t192. Weren't we all touting the same thing at the same timeframe last weekend?


Funny how it's still so far away 

Notty
12 January 2016 19:00:17
I think it may be a little early to say which model is correct before the time has actually passed 🙂
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
David M Porter
12 January 2016 19:02:28


Yes, as I thought a slower evolution to milder weather from the ECM.


 


Not sure why people are doubting the day 8/9 charts , historically if the first system stalls/slips SE then the second system breaks through a couple of days later.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


"Historically" being the most pertinent word here, IMO. Not always relevant to what has still to come.


UKMO has already surprised a lot of us with it's run tonight, and although ECM shows the atlantic still possibly breaking through eventually, it certainly looks somewhat different from this morning's run. Note the absence of the dark blues, purples etc over Greenland which were well in evidence this morning.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Maunder Minimum
12 January 2016 19:03:43


 


 You could be right of course but it's so hard to recall... give us an example month and year.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I can recall that in 1981, we had slider low after slider low - the second and third and fourth lows all failed to break through, so Ian is incorrect in his statement.

New world order coming.
Steve Murr
12 January 2016 19:05:39


 


There is no need for such uncalled for personal comments. I also don't think the personal tone directed at Shropshire is called for. For heaven's sake, it's just model analysis. Can we not keep it civil? I don't see any "mild supporters club". If people comment on Shropshire's posts and/or think they might be accurate, then that's their right. Just like people (here and there) often highlight and praise your posts. I don't see the difference. 


Differences of opinion are great - but just argue against someone else's take. No need to invoke such barbs.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


whats the point of having a debate with someone who doesnt debate.


the same person banned time over for an agenda.an agenda to wind people up.


We all know the context of ians post- by inferring the mild weather was an absolute. 


Where as the people who debate put points across.


But I cant be bothered to argue.


same old ian- or is it melanie or is shropshire.


Same old nick.


 


 


 


 


 


 

Shropshire
12 January 2016 19:07:39


 


 You could be right of course but it's so hard to recall... give us an example month and year.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


Sure big snow event, looks good going forward ? :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860108.gif


Oh no it doesn't :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860110.gif


 


Big snow event :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif


Thaw begins :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960210.gif


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Solar Cycles
12 January 2016 19:07:50


 


There is no need for such uncalled for personal comments. I also don't think the personal tone directed at Shropshire is called for. For heaven's sake, it's just model analysis. Can we not keep it civil? I don't see any "mild supporters club". If people comment on Shropshire's posts and/or think they might be accurate, then that's their right. Just like people (here and there) often highlight and praise your posts. I don't see the difference. 


Differences of opinion are great - but just argue against someone else's take. No need to invoke such barbs.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

Regardless of the above he's right though.

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