theweatheroutlook

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Whether Idle
12 January 2016 20:11:34

This has been the best bout of model watching since the winter 2013 .


Absolutely loving it. 


 To paraphrase Sir Alex


“I can’t believe it. I can’t believe it. Model Watching. Bloody hell!”

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Hippydave
12 January 2016 20:24:09

Nice to see the models all in agreement


Be interesting to see where this goes really - I'm a little cautious on the UKMO front. Even if it does prove to be more correct than GFS/ECM in the timeframe we can see, there's nothing to say it doesn't go the same way after a day or so post T144 anyway. Given the MetO forecasts are pretty bullish about a return to westerlies I'd tend to infer their data is strongly supportive of this.


On the slider low front correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't 2013 the period where slider low after slider low cropped up. If it's the spell I'm thinking off the second one certainly didn't usher in milder westerly based stuff


In the short term though some snow for some, some nice crisp sunshine for others and some frost when/if winds fall light. Anyone would think it's winter or something

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
stophe
12 January 2016 20:30:53

Dutch ecm ensembles.


Whether Idle
12 January 2016 20:33:03

ECM 120 postage stamps - lots of support for an UKMO outcome.


http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016011212!!/


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
idj20
12 January 2016 20:33:57

My turn now. I am a fan of what is going on at the stratospheric 30 hpa level and for a good few days the GFS has been consistent in showing what I think is a major wobble at around the 28th with the upper atmospheric vortex fighting for survival. Yes, it is a long way off in forecasting terms and it's all tenuous stuff but when I'm seeing output like this showing up on the charts, I get this "you ain't seen nothing yet" feeling . . .
 

Folkestone Harbour. 
Arcus
12 January 2016 20:40:33
12z ECM ensembles show a shift downward in terms of 850s for my area of the UK for days 6 to 10 compared to the 00z.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Whether Idle
12 January 2016 20:42:09


Dutch ecm ensembles.



Originally Posted by: stophe 


I note where the main cluster is going at day 10,  -into the .

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Steve Murr
12 January 2016 20:42:19
The updated ECM ensembles reflect the continued swing to the UKMO solution

the 00z mean for debilt was
Day 9 2.5c
Day 10 4c

The updated mean for 12z is
Day 9 1c
Day 10 2.5c

A significant drop over the 50 run mean.

In terms of the mean at day 8 (192) the UK is still well under 0c with the +5c line somewhere in the atlantic.....

S
Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2016 20:46:19


Dutch ecm ensembles.



Originally Posted by: stophe 


Very big swing to cold there quite extraordinary. The longer the cold hangs around the more likely we will get snow.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
12 January 2016 20:47:06
12z ECM ens are quite something if its cold your after.

Great debate tonight- handbags and cotton gloves aside
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
12 January 2016 20:54:24


My turn now. I am a fan of what is going on at the stratospheric 30 hpa level and for a good few days the GFS has been consistent in showing what I think is a major wobble at around the 28th with the upper atmospheric vortex fighting for survival. Yes, it is a long way off in forecasting terms and it's all tenuous stuff but when I'm seeing output like this showing up on the charts, I get this "you ain't seen nothing yet" feeling . . .
 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I love the Yin & Yang' nature of these upper atmosphere charts :)


 

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Karl Guille
12 January 2016 20:56:17
Very interesting ECM ensembles with the significant grouping now in the cold camp all the way out to day 10. Plenty more changes to come and here's to a traditional pub run from the GFS 18z tonight!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
squish
12 January 2016 20:56:26
It might have got lost in the debate between the big 'three' but here's tonights NAVGEM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2016011212/navgemnh-0-144.png?12-19 

It swung very much in favour of the UKMO in last nights 18z then swung back again- but is now much more in line with the current UKMO thinking....

not that models think!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
12 January 2016 20:57:19
I'll take the ECM control !!
http://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
nickl
12 January 2016 21:05:23

I'll take the ECM control !!
Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png


i suspect you certainly would if you could see it squish. Follows the UKMO route with day 6 system a n France/channel low followed by two disrupting lows. I expect you would be snowed in with your height! 

Rob K
12 January 2016 21:08:44

The crucial timeframe is starting to get within reach of the high-res (well, higher than GFS and ECM) WRF model... looks like some decent trough disruption there!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
12 January 2016 21:10:06
http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160112/12/138/prectypeuktopo.png 

Interesting breakdown!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Polar Low
12 January 2016 21:12:28

We still need to get over that hurdle at 120 Steve it still looks like it wont be enough to me I wish I could see it different pressure always just a little  high to south and not enough energy under the block


ecm mean





 


 


 


The updated ECM ensembles reflect the continued swing to the UKMO solution

the 00z mean for debilt was
Day 9 2.5c
Day 10 4c

The updated mean for 12z is
Day 9 1c
Day 10 2.5c

A significant drop over the 50 run mean.

In terms of the mean at day 8 (192) the UK is still well under 0c with the +5c line somewhere in the atlantic.....

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Whether Idle
12 January 2016 21:12:37

Here's the northern Belgian - Brugge/SW Holland 2m temp. ensemble set - closer to MBY than the London ones:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Shropshire
12 January 2016 21:16:36

I agree Polar Low, the front would approach vertically aligned on that ECM chart. Still good enough for a snow event if you get the stalling ala Feb 96.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
squish
12 January 2016 21:17:10


">http://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Originally Posted by: nickl 


i suspect you certainly would if you could see it squish. Follows the UKMO route with day 6 system a n France/channel low followed by two disrupting lows. I expect you would be snowed in with your height! 



 


You're expecting 6ft then !!

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Whether Idle
12 January 2016 21:29:05

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Notty
12 January 2016 21:39:36


Lets take a step back and take a look at this. For the first time in about a week we finally have pretty good agreement across the NWP at 144 in the realms of FI. All of them signalling a potential snow event from a trough disruption slider on Monday 18th.


T+144 UKMO



ECM T+144



GFS T+144



Let's leave it there for now and start to embrace the current possibility of a decent snow event on Monday based on virtual cross model agreement from the big 3.


Getting involved in silly arguments and willy waving second guessing what may happen post 144 is all very pointless after tonight's alignment.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

j


willy waving 🙂 made me giggle 

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Rob K
12 January 2016 21:43:11



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


Talking of uncertainty... just the 25C spread by day 12 


 



 


 


 


I'm backing run 18. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
12 January 2016 21:44:31

Greater Mancunians/Northwesterners - I'm surprised to report that the 12z high-res EURO4 actually shows snow accumulating here, (and not just on the Pennines) for Wednesday night into Thursday. 


Surprising. Definitely one to keep any eye on. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

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