This 'cold spell' is turning out to be a bit pony isn't it. January 2016 certainly won't be a memorable month.

At least there will be some bright skies and clear air to clear the lungs this weekend.

I have a feeling late Feb will bring more in the way of proper frosts but they usually melt away by 9am with the strengthening sun.

really????

 

Still cold at 144

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I give up - the models have finally beaten me. I'm going to try to not look all day tomorrow because my BP can't take it 🙂 if these models can't "determine" the weather in four days hence, what possible chance have they got of predicting climate change....

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168 - 7days - 1 week - and we are still under the ridge

 

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Downside to the 18z is the cold goes out with a whimper rather than a bang. The 0z run will be different and personally I'd sooner get a snowy spell for a few hours rather than an extra day of dry and cold weather. 

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There's not much to be sad about given today's output. Cold lasting well into next week with a potential frontal snow event before an uncertain breakdown that is being slowly pushed backwards with each passing day.

A few days ago it looked like the cold would retreat before the end of the weekend, and now look where we're at.

18z GFS - I wouldn't be surprised if snow showers are fairly widespread Thursday night into  Friday morning. The air is genuinely cold by then and there is a decent westerly tilt to the Arctic flow. Could be some decent convection off the Irish Sea pushing into G Man, North Cheshire, West Yorks and towards the Peak District. 

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Agree to some extent and understand why you say that ..............or do you gamble on the HP sitting by us and relocating ????? Of course we have no say in the matter .

I think I'd rather have the rain moving in turning to snow and stalling IMBY and then get pushed back. ....that's not going to happen either

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 Indeed!  

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Excellent! Come to papa 

I thought he was hedging his bets with a suggestion that it was difficult to tell how fast AND how far the milder air would get.

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That's exactly what he was doing...............he can hardly come on TV and say " we haven't a clue, sorry " .

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?1 

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96h fax chart  little front for EA , snow showers down the coast , LP's out West

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Still just about feeling cold by Thursday morning in the SE...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn20417.gif

 

But soon up to double figures widely: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

 

Not really much sign of Atlantic domination after that though: HP stays pretty close at hand for the rest of the run.

 

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120 Fax:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

 

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just because it doesn't make the hall of fame for cold events doesn't mean it won't be a typical winter event, what's with the holy grail searching?? 

The models are very much progged on there being cold, snow and a spell of typical UK winter weather, i.e. about a week of cold, fairly normal yet still rare enough each year or so to be something to look forward to.  Bizarre really to look forward to having to get out of bed earlier to clear the windscreen in the morning, drive slower to work and enjoy freezing feet waiting for a train, but hey I'm a cold pervert too. 

'Pony' (I genuinely love that word by the way) is probably a bit of a harsh description, but I guess it depends on your own expectations, I personally never expected to see this coming cold period to be any more than that, just a bit cold and typically wintry.  

As for Feb, I do agree with some indications here and there that IMO it's likely to yield the coldest month of this winter, will it be cataclysmic, highly unlikely, will it be average to below average cold, potentially. 

Relax, enjoy a couple of nights sticking the coal on the fire and a crisp morning for a few days :)

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120 fax...............shows the battle ground nicely

 

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Very encouraging movements today if you're after wintry weather... Big differences still at t+144, even if not as big as this time yesterday... And there will quite likely be big changes over coming days as this plays itself out.

It's reminded me of late November 2010... We were already in the cold spell and blizzards were forecast 4 days out with snow sweeping the country as low pressure moves across the Atlantic.... In the event the forecast low pressure system fizzled out and headed to central France and we were left in the cold. Even at 96 hours there were massive changes, and this is a similar Atlantic vs Block situation (ok, exact Synoptics somewhat different) so pointless getting too attached to any model output at t+144, let alone looking further out. The good news is that in these situations, my experience is that the power of the Block is under-estimated... But that's promising nothing. Don't be too disappointed if you wake up tomorrow with the ever so consistent MetO chart showing the Atlantic returning at t+144 - this is definitely not a prediction but I'd rule given the state of model flux we've had the past week.

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Pub run for whats its worth, its all over by Sunday unless ive missed something ?

believe me no one wants cold more than me!

ENS out to +180 and a quick look shows just 6 or so supporting the op. Once again huge variation on the theme with three or so developing a decent looking easterly.

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Here's the ECM 12z ensemble for London:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Spot the outlier..... Interesting that both GFS and ECM Ops both follow the same path, just a day difference on timing.  Other than that, the main cluster extends the cold through to the end of next week.  In fact there's not a lot of support for a push of milder air until Thursday.

Given all the subtle changes and the repeated delays in any breakdown I'm not sure this will be over in the middle of next week - and to be fair the forecast seemed to include the word 'may' rather than 'will'

 

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Still flirting with the SW:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160112/18/135/prectypeuktopo.png 

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The problem is people's overreliance on 850s and thickness values. They are fine if used properly, but there is not just one benchmark; 528 and -6 are fine when the wind is coming from the north or east (actually 528 is probably a bit high), but they are woefully inadequate when the wind is coming from the south east because warm fronts tilt vertically in the direction they are moving; i.e warm fronts affect higher altitudes first; this is why you get cirrus->altocumulus->nimostratus cloud sequence. And because of this the lapse rate is very low which means typically -3 for 850hpa temp is fine and I assume much greater than 530 for the thickness.

To anyone using 850s or thickness I recommend a quick glance to get an idea of how cold the airmass is before going back to the SLP and geopotential height charts which are far more useful and won't let you down! 

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