theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

beanoir
12 January 2016 21:45:25


My turn now. I am a fan of what is going on at the stratospheric 30 hpa level and for a good few days the GFS has been consistent in showing what I think is a major wobble at around the 28th with the upper atmospheric vortex fighting for survival. Yes, it is a long way off in forecasting terms and it's all tenuous stuff but when I'm seeing output like this showing up on the charts, I get this "you ain't seen nothing yet" feeling . . .
 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


It's about February... 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2016 21:45:34

Beeb seem confident of the mild air coming through next week maybe snowy breakdown though.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35298605


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
12 January 2016 21:49:24

12z ECM ens are quite something if its cold your after.

Great debate tonight- handbags and cotton gloves aside

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


My feeling has always been that unless either of today's UKMO runs jumped on board with the GFS and ECM solutions of the last day or so, there was still room for some doubt as to what happens after the weekend. Much as GFS was dogedly sticking to it's version of bringing the atlantic back in early next week, UKMO has been every bit as stubborn in persisting with it's version.


UKMO may not go as far ahead as ECM and GFS, but it is still every bit as important a player IMO.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
12 January 2016 21:55:15

O/T


A Deakin ...signs of milder weather next week

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
12 January 2016 21:55:44
GFS still showing a reasonable amount of white stuff Thursday night.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_60_preciptype.png?cb=783 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
12 January 2016 22:00:25
Alex Deakin says turning mild and wet next week on the extended outlook at 9.55pm. Clearly MOGREPs and their other data favours the jet to power through
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
12 January 2016 22:04:46

Alex Deakin says turning mild and wet next week on the extended outlook at 9.55pm. Clearly MOGREPs and their other data favours the jet to power through

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yet, this is not a million miles from the UKMO run:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011218/gfs-0-102.png?18


All it needs is some trough disruption and a slider low.

New world order coming.
Gusty
12 January 2016 22:07:00

Energy just starting to head NE'wards at 114 hours.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



SJV
12 January 2016 22:07:20


Beeb seem confident of the mild air coming through next week maybe snowy breakdown though.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35298605


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Heavily mentioned yes, but very tentative language used. Highlights the uncertainty 


#strawclutching 

Gusty
12 January 2016 22:09:26

Block now putting up wonderful resistance..atlantic retreating at 126 !


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



doctormog
12 January 2016 22:09:49


 


Heavily mentioned yes, but very tentative language used. Highlights the uncertainty 


#strawclutching 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Yes, the main point in that forecast was, like the models, the uncertainty. I would advise people to watch it on the link provided earlier and make up their own mind as the perception you get may be different than what was actually said in the forecast. 


The early stages of the pub run look largely similar to the 12z GFS op with small changes creeping in to the midterm.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chiltern Blizzard
12 January 2016 22:10:32

Alex Deakin says turning mild and wet next week on the extended outlook at 9.55pm. Clearly MOGREPs and their other data favours the jet to power through

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


well, for all the 'excitement', ECM op does show it turning milder on 12z by the middle of next week.... Surprising he mentioned it though given apparent uncertainty, even if MOGREPs are trending that way currently.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2016 22:11:30


 


Heavily mentioned yes, but very tentative language used. Highlights the uncertainty 


#strawclutching 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


Seemed annoyingly confident of a return to mild by the end of next week though. Be Interesting to see the ECM London ensembles tonight.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
12 January 2016 22:11:40


Bit of a delay again when you compare with the 12z

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Notty
12 January 2016 22:11:59
GFS 18z 132 showing cold air pushing Atlantic back more 🙂
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Gusty
12 January 2016 22:12:04

Snow event still being progged at 132.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Maunder Minimum
12 January 2016 22:13:17

Well the GFS 18z following UKMO at 138:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011218/gfs-0-138.png?18


The trough does indeed dig into Europe

New world order coming.
Gusty
12 January 2016 22:15:05

138 and we have another slider, snow event for the SW on Monday. A theme developing. -10c 850Hpa's closer to Eastern England and Scotland 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gooner
12 January 2016 22:16:58


No Atlantic rush yet then, HP stays over the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
12 January 2016 22:17:02
GFS 18z at T144 has the cold holding on in the east and south-east and looks with every run to be enhancing the possibility of cold continuing into next week.
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Rob K
12 January 2016 22:17:24

What a difference 24 hours makes. Yesterday's 12Z had rain having pushed right across the country by Monday morning:



 


Tonight it shows the front struggling into the southwest and falling as snow:



 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
12 January 2016 22:18:02


138 and we have another slider, snow event for the SW on Monday. A theme developing. -10c 850Hpa's closer to Eastern England and Scotland 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


It might not even get that far when the time comes Steve

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
12 January 2016 22:18:19

144. Looks as if the next atlantic low will bring milder air.


Much much better output today for coldies. Off to bed now. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Rob K
12 January 2016 22:18:37

And that's as far as it gets before it fizzles.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_138_preciptype.png?cb=905


 


Unfortunately the angle is all wrong for the next low, which pushes straight over the top.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Notty
12 January 2016 22:18:42
By 144 gfs has Atlantic pushed back and no snow event 😞
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl

Remove ads from site

Ads