Here's the full EPSgram for Reading from last night - unsurprisingly it's very close to the Swindon one. Meanwhile it looks like MetO this morning is greatly different in the western Atlantic to the last few runs, it puts the emphasis on the easternmost low at 96 rather than the westernmost one as it did yesterday. It shows how uncertain things are just a few days out!

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Meanwhile the 00Z GFS has very different ideas to previous runs, with a resurgent high almost threatening to disrupt the next trough on Tuesday (the first one hardly made any inroads!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

 

By 00Z on Wednesday it is some 9C colder than the 18Z on some of the Scottish gridpoints!

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If it's model agreement that you are looking for at T144 this morning then you're out of luck! However, the good news is that GEM, UKMO and GFS all maintain a northerly or easterly influence at this timeframe. UKMO now goes for high pressure situated up towards Iceland and a south easterly fetch over the UK 'the latest trend' that has appeared over the Last few runs on several model perturbations. GEM on the other hand has the high over Ireland with a slack northerly in place keeping relatively cold 850 hPA temps for most parts. Once again, GFS is the weakest of the three at this point with uppers approaching zero in the s/w and high pressure slipping away south-eastwards. All very marginal still with the Atlantic ready to pounce at any moment but generally the cold theme continues to hold on until at least early next week with the potential for something more prolonged as shown by the GEM still a realistic proposition too.

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Not too much time as I'm off to work soon but the GFS has definitely trended considerably colder this morning with a near ice day down here on Tuesday with 925 Hpa temperatures of -4c in an easterly flow . This was the model that just 3 days ago was powering the atlantic through as early as Saturday.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD

 

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Well.... I am happy with the models this morning. My only gloat is that I did predict a scandi trough a few days ago over and above a scandi height rise. Sometimes, over analysis leads to pure chaos whereas simply playing the non-scientific 'odds are' game offers sweet rewards  

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I am not sure if it is me but every time I look at the GFS ensembles for each run for Manchester, the GFS ensemble mean when it climbs above the -5C line seems to be getting put further and further back. It is now around the 19th on the last run.

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Very quick analysis seems to show:
Gfs upgrade
MetO downgrade
Both converging at last

edit: ECM now like yesterday's MetO at t+120 with heights building to north west!

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ECM looking very good at day 6 still very cold

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

 

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I would amend that to say:

MetO consistent with the past few days (blocked, cold)

GFS upgrade (GEFS massive upgrade, the cold cluster is now in the majority again post 144!)

ECM upgrade (at least to 168)... -7C 850s over southern England at 192 compared to freezing or above last night!

It's a good day for cold fans IMO. And the only model that hasn't been flopping around like a fish out of water is MetO - I'm impressed with its consistency.

 

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Cold going nowhere fast at day 7 will prob stay cold until day 10 on this run can we get any snow though?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

 

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agreed... MetO downgrade is only relative and consistent with keeping it cold compared to other model changes we've had other past days!

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Clearly a delay in the return to milder weather this morning, though the theme is still the same to sink the High into Europe and fire the jet to the North. Nothing to suggest that a Northern block could develop that advects snowy northerlies/easterlies to our shores.

 

 

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I know these are for the 12z but the ECM temps are much colder than the Meto/Beeb forecasts. The Beeb have a max of 5c over the weekend for London so the GFS is much more realistic.

 

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Yes Shroppers, it is very satisfying, as someone who has devoted some effort to model watching this winter, for me to see an unlikely cold spell come to fruition.  After the mildest (and in some areas, one of the wettest) starts to winter in recorded history, a cold dry spell is just what is required.  Your comment about snowy north easterlies etc is irrelevant as no one has really been touting that.  This cold spell has been all about the UKMO facing off the over progressive GFS and its cheerleaders.

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That's basically what I've just written on the homepage. However, whilst the models keep pushing back the transition back to mild conditions there remains some uncertainty about the mid and longer term prospects IMO.  

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So thats the ECM 1 full day behind the UKMO in this solution - & the GFS is still trying to put the jigsaw together-

Although reading some comments like UKMO downgrade etc are pretty wide of the mark

+5 isotherm suddenly delayed by 2 days... Who would have thought it -

Morning all, a cold and dry feel to the output into the weekend and beyond- I wouldn't be surprised to see minus double digit minima over Scotland, -15C possibly achievable. Thereafter a slow decline in heights into Europe is probably the best bet with a return of the Atlantic by the end of next week a realistic possibility.

Somewhat subdued in here considering what we are seeing this morning. Dispatches from the field suggest that, against the odds, UKMO has achieved a victory against the forces of mildness and winter will remain for some time.
Joking aside, another big swing to colder, dryer weather well into next week with ppn possibilities.

There are two primary events I'll be focusing on in my weekly forecast for CS England. Firstly the potential for some VERY low minima over the weekend. Hard frosts look a certainty. And secondly, trough disruption and attendant snow risk Mon and Tues.

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Now we look like having a cold spell of reasonable duration, the next trick is to get a decent snowfall across the country - that is where slider lows become critical - always a marginal affair of course - there is nothing more depressing than snow turning to rain before having a chance to enjoy it.

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Not really model related, but I always keep a close eye on TWO stats in the lead up to, and during cold and warm spells. They actually provide a valuable insight into what people are really thinking! Interest in the current one peaked on January 7th (site and forum) and since then has gradually waned. Will this cold spell gradually drop out of the charts in the coming days or bounce back up? 

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Please stay on topic today and discuss the weather and model output. It's one of those few days in the UK when discussing what the NWP shows is more interesting than discussing each other! Issues should be raised with Admin / Mods and not posted in this thread. Thank you.  

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Having had a flick through the output on my phone this morning, it looks finely balanced as to whether the trough shown to push in erratically from the West will make enough progress East to give many snow before it dissipates.

What do others think?

West Country only, or a more widespread risk of snow?

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Temps in London today will get to the seasonal norm, so many may wonder what the fuss is about. looks chilly and dry for down here, with frost at night. Nothing for the man on the street to get excited about

We need a screaming nor'ester or battleground snow events which are not yet showing up. This cold spell will likely just gradually decline as the high sinks to Europe but at least it is chilly after such a warm period

 

 

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Its interesting watching the GFS op runs archive for 1pm this Friday and see how each run gradually gets more amplified as we approach Friday. This was last Sundays' GFS 0z op run and look how flat it was.

 

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Ironic that the ECM run is more like the Stella charts we were seeing last week!

It's very rare indeed for the models to go from cold to mild then back again, the MetO model has done well although you wouldn't know it reading their own MRF's which only today indicate a proper wintry spell with lowland sleet and snow.

I am expecting a good covering here tonight although it's Sod's law that I will be in the Midlands so will miss it!

However, a weekend of Lakeland snow covered landscapes, sunshine and hard frosts will suit me fine.

Andy

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