Cheers Neil.

GFS 06z - Atlantic seems a bit more progressive at 114 - will it be pushed back...

I've left those two phrases to illustrate the dichotomy of your argument. We can't be definitive about whether it will snow or by how much 7 days ahead as you quite rightly say in the second sentence.

Stalling set-ups are actually quite rare these days, but having had 50 years of experience of them I can categorically say that the detail and extent of any disruptive intrusion is next to impossible to model more than a day or so out, and has often gone wrong actually during the event itself.

yep, makes further inroads this run, wet rather than white the further West you are.

Cold air hanging on in the East though:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011306/gfs-1-132.png?6

The difference seems to be the air prior to the arrival of the front is less cold, and we get a mix of rain and snow when it arrives.

Are you having a laugh? cold at the surface

The correct GFS6z max temp forecast for that time slot is: 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_132_uk2mtmp.png

I think the chart you've posted is showing min temps.

Still chilly though, and signs that the cold air will stay with us on some level.  despite probably warmer uppers

cold if not very cold at the surface run it Brian

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/15h.htm

Run it Brian

I disagree. I don't think it will get higher than 6-7C here today and the cold hasn't really arrived yet. By the weekend 2-3C is more like it. Eg the gridpoint over me has 6C for 3pm today but only 2C for 3pm on Saturday.

It's not going to be mega cold, but it will be colder than average. And hopefully it will have sunny days, frosty nights and some ice on the lakes.

I would lay a large bet that the actual temps will be 2-3c higher than that come the day. Just getting a single day with below average maximum temps is proving a virtual impossibility this winter down south.

I'm not sure what your point is here as i was referring to day maxes, and thats at 7pm when the sun would have long gone down by that time, and yet it's still above freezing widely south of the southern Midlands. 

I'm not disputing the GFS6z charts are cold. Just pointing out the chart you embedded showed minimum temperature, and for the 18 - 21 GMT timeslot this usually shows a disparity with the max temps! 

Actually 6pm (the 7pm is French time). The chart for the daytime on Monday seems to be broken but for noon (1pm French time) on Sunday the temperature here is progged to be 1C. By 6pm it has reached 2C.

The point was its a cold if not very cold run at the surface run it for yourself and not 5-7c you applied for your location

run it

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/3h.htm

Even today is likely to max out at or below average (based on an average max for this area of 7C), and it should get at least 3 or 4 degrees colder by Saturday.

The GFS maxima from Brian's charts on the 06Z run first, then 00Z, from today, are:

7C 7C

5C 6C

5C 5C

3C 4C

2C 5C

3C 4C

3C 4C

3C 3C

Strangely the 06Z seems colder at the surface than the 00Z here, even though it looks more progressive!

your chart is valid for 18:00 hours on that day, and it does say max temp. I however fail to understand how they can forecast the day high in January for 6pm 😕 day time highs at this time of year I think are normally reached between 13:30-14:30 as the day lengths are still very short.

Looks snowier tomorrow.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_30_preciptype.png?cb=206

And quite extensive snow for Wales and western side of the Midlands on Saturday night in to Sunday.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_87_preciptype.png?cb=206

Eventually fizzling out in situ having edged a little further south and east, but not far.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_108_preciptype.png?cb=206

I think I'll be concentrating on this before worrying about Monday/Tuesday and the evolution beyond.  

It's not a snapshot at 6pm, it is the max for the time period (3hr or 6hr) up to 6pm. The WZ charts make that clear (if you speak German) with the legend "Maximum 2m Temperatur bis zum Termin" 

ah thanks 👍🏼😊

so how do I find the range 12-15pm? 

15:00GMT charts, e.g.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_105_uk2mtmp.png

Just fixed. You may need to refresh your browser because today's ECM 0z charts were originally created with the unamended script. 

Thanks. Loving all the charts you have available now