Yes this battle is lost and major embarrassment for the METO - as I said earlier I don't think the Euro heights will last, and we can move onto the next chase.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

If there is one thing this setup is not, it is an easy call.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Well the flip is complete and IMO this will be the solution, both the GFS and ECM will not be wrong at day 4.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Why would that be? If MOGREPS continues to back up the op, I wouldn't expect any changes - remember, they use DECIDER and MOGREPS heavily, they don't rely solely on the ECM and especially not the op run.

PS - good to see lots of posts from people who have made a 100-hour time machine visit to the future. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Why would that be? If MOGREPS continues to back up the op, I wouldn't expect any changes - remember, they use DECIDER and MOGREPS heavily, they don't rely solely on the ECM and especially not the op run.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Just when it looks as the models have firmed up on a spell of colder weather, in comes Hurricane Alex to throw things into chaos, its crazy.

It would take a lot for the UKMO to come off given that higher pressure is now being forecast over Spain and lower pressure over Iceland.

I hope the UKMO does comes off but its looking more and more difficult the closer we get to the uncertain period in question, although this is clearly an exceptional case so we may see another wild swing.

This has to be the most uncertain period of model output I can remember since 2005, although January 2013 was also pretty bad.

Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 

as usual peddling your own agenda....

based on 1 thing ( & that the UKMO has been mega consistent bar 1 run )

the ECM tonight has moved from a SE >

NW angle of attack to ENE > ESE angle tonight

the old 120 is nothing like the 00z 120 its the exact middle ground

GFS takes the 0c isotherm north of Scotland

ECM takes it through the nose of the country

UKMO takes it southeast across the southern part

small error rates at 72 = 500 mile error rate at 120.

but no flip as you put it....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

In the time I've been model watching and 2 of the 3 big boys have shown the Atlantic coming thru at T96 - just 4 days away - it has never NOT happened.

If it was an easterly at T96 then yes, there would be doubts, but we can expect a UKMO/METO climbdown in the morning.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Well, all the main models now (apart from UKM and Arpege) seem to be in broad agreement for low pressure to be through the UK by Tuesday. Obviously details will change from run to run but you'd be brave to call for anything else.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That may happen Ian, but numerous people said the same about UKMO at the beginning of this week/last weekend (that it would soon fall into line with the more progressive runs by GFS and ECM), and it didn't happen.

Unwise to assume anything at the moment, IMO.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Hurricane Alex has bowled a googly and nobody expected it. It still remains to be seen how it pans out, since such storms are unpredictable in track and intensity.

However, it would be just our rotten luck in this country, if it ends up scuppering our cold spell.

As for Shropshire's comment about the METO - a completely unacceptable and unjustified smear - up until this hurricane appearing on the scene, the Meto were leading the field and the others were following.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

So, if we ignore two of the most reliable models, don't wait for the ECM ensemble suite and don't know what MOGREPS yet shows, everything is certain? 

I'm not saying I know what will happen just that regardless of others' claims things are far from certain. Given that small changes in the ECM 12z would produce large differences in the UK's weather, given the changes that have been happening from run to run and given the highly unusual situation in the Atlantic, any claim of certainty is either deliberately provocative, unnecessarily arrogant or to be polite, misplaced. But hey others know better.

Give it a day or two with reasonable agreement across all the major models and ensemble suites then we can be confident. We do not have that, therefore confidence is somewhat equivalent to educated guesswork based on one's psychological predisposition.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

hmm...I thought it was due to 'possibly' turn milder from midweek onwards NOT from Sunday/Monday!?

As this chart forecasts:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

One thing will be surely interesting to watch and that's the BBC Weather for the week ahead at 21:55 later. They have been uncertain for a while now.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

That's true David but the doubt then wasn't at T96, there's a first time for everything but 2/3 of the big boys wrong on an Atlantic breakthrough - a complete breakthrough not something showing a W/E or N/S split - at T96, I'm not having it.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 Give it a day or two with reasonable agreement across all the major models and ensemble suites then we can be confident. We do not have that, therefore confidence is somewhat equivalent to educated guesswork based on one's psychological predisposition.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Agree. My view is the probabilities have shifted towards a milder outcome next week but it is far from certain. I think yesterday I gave it 55:45, today I'd probably go 60:40. If MOGREPS has tumbled (perhaps we'll find out later) then I'd bump up the likelihood further. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 If MOGREPS has tumbled (perhaps we'll find out later) then I'd bump up the likelihood further. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

ECM120 out:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/120_mslp500.png

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

You can find out easily enough by keeping an eye on the MetO extended forecasts. Currently on days 6 and 7 down here they show westerlies on day 6 veering NNE'ly on day 7.

If that changes to show SW'lies, then it will have "tumbled". Anything with a northerly or easterly quarter in it and it'll still be game on.

I would have been a bit more concerned had the MetO comments today been mentioning a Monday breakdown, but it's been quite the opposite.

Tonight's "fax" charts will be very instructive, as they will show whether the forecasters at the Met Office trust their own output...

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I agree , it was a stupid comment as up until now UKMO has stuck to its guns and been consistent in the story its told, ECM and GFS hadn't a clue and swapped sides every other run, now if Hurricane Alex has complicated the bigger picture and UKMO pick up on this overnight and we see this reflected in their output in the morning , then I say well done UKMO .

It is allowed to changed its forecast if something unexpected comes on the scene.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

But it doesn't matter how it's done, once the energy is through we are in a SWerley flow, if you lose 5-0 or 3-2, you've still lost the game.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire