As Laiq would say, Ahem.

That has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with it, if you read posts , its been trustworthy because its stuck to its story without all the chopping and changing and it has been backed up by forecasts and faxes . GFS has thrown all things into the mix, sooner or later it has to be right.

All you have to do is have a look at the GFS charts posted by Darren , that backs up my point.

Isn't that app fed from GFS?  I always assumed it was.

I think Darren's gif of the GFS's ensemble inconsistency between yesterday's 6z and 12z runs was very telling of its recent performances. It seems to have a 100 ideas of what might happen and doesn't commit to any of them except for the most progressive (which it then backtracks from before re-committing to and everything in between along the way).

It's not alone in being indecisive of course, and whilst the UKMO does show the outcome we all want, I don't think that's the reason we trust it more. The fact is it seems less likely to drag us through the ringer and back to deliver it's output. I believe if it was consistently showing a mild outlook we'd still trust it, just in a more begrudging way 

Which is a point some are wanting to ignore, eventually it might be right, and of course lets be honest living where we do the Atlantic will win.................................................................................eventually, and then we can all say I knew it would win

72 Fax

Make what you like of this, but according to laura G, this evenings MetO "internal '6 Days and Beyond' guidance 🇮🇸 not placing much confidence on anything... a breakdown will occur eventually, but when...!"

Now, that suggests to me that the MetO are looking at the middle of next weekend at earliest for a possible breakdown, and not Monday.  Which is supported by the 7 day "not-a-forecasts" on the MetO website which, for here, for example, continue to show cold and variable winds - with nothing from the west or SW - through to next Wednesday.


Clearly no-one knows what will happen next week.  Perhaps we should just enjoy the (very) long awaited cold and (mostly) sunny weather over the weekend and stop stressing over what may not happen thereafter?


(For the record, I nailed my colours to the MetO mast this morning and am not going with GFS)

Well.... GFS is wrong for my location at T+0 and T+6 - let alone T+72-T+96

Been light snow off and on all day and currently snowing here now. ECM hasn't done much better either.

Agreed, Its the easiest thing in the world to say the Atlantic will win.  Takes no effort or intelligence at all and most of the time will be proven the correct call, as we are where we are in the world.

Over the past week there have been repeated calls by certain persons that the GFS was right, and time after time the UKMO has faced it off and been much more correct.

Of course, after several abject failures, those calling for the Atlantic to win will be correct, eventually.

How much credibility remains intact is another matter.

Yes please Marcus

Your post and SJV's one sum it up very well.

GFS has been calling a breakdown throughout.  IIRC originally it was all over today or tomorrow, with the Atlantic pouring across.  Now we're back to, at best, it showing a breakdown on Monday/Tuesday.

Of course it may be right today with the 12z but if we're looking for consistency then Darren's "flapping birds" of the last two days says it all.

Comapring that with yesterdays T+96 the centre of the high pressure has moved from Birmingham to London, a shift SE of about 100 miles, and central pressure has dropped 3mb.

The 528dam line has hardly moved on the south coast and from NW Wales to the Wirral, perhaps 50 miles?

very interesting.... Beyond this point is FI and divergence is swift.... Struggling to compare as on phone but important differences with GFS even at this point... E.g. 1020 isobar heads north-west north of Scotland, where the GFS has it heading North-east... meto seems to be holding its nerve with this fax, but I've not been able o really have a good look.

^^

Exactly this. GFS has been all over the place. It is nothing to do with showing cold or not, it is to do with the whole ensemble suite exhibiting more flip-flops than a Chinese shoeshop.

The UKMO has been consistent although even there the 12Z is rather different than recent runs.

All of which is why I said earlier that if I hadn't seen any previous runs I would find the GFS more plausible today. As it is I think it is probably not worth the pixels it's painted with.

ECM 00z output from yesterday and today for the 19th. Unlike that terrible GFS, it has been remarkable consistent:

What's also interesting is that they haven't gone with their own model precisely - there are quite a few differences from the position of the high pressure (fax puts it further north-west)  to the position of the low pressure in the Atlantic (held further west).

Interesting times.

I'm not sure that anyone has said that the ECM has been consistent in the last couple of days? The point is that the UKMO as been the most consistent and the GFS has been all over the place.

That's quite telling as an indicator of how the ECM model has picked up on greater energy coming E/ENE.  But it was Day 6 of course.  I wonder how GFS and UKMO would look at the same time?

The fax charts have remained remarkably consistent across 24 hours for T+96.  It will be interesting to see how yesterday's T+120 and tonight's T+96 compare.

Anyone remember the embarrassingly poor forecast from Countryfile for 7-9c maximums widely across the south Friday?  Here we are: More like 3-5c

The scary thing is, compared to GFS, that is consistent! 

Which conveniently ignores my point as to why it is the GFS that is being lambasted here?  It has been no less 'all over the place' than the ECM. Regardless, are you suggesting that 'consistency' equates to higher accuracy? because this is what you and others seem to be implying.

Nobody said the ECM has been consistent? In truth it hasn't either and several members have alluded to this in their general summaries of recent model inconsistencies.

No, but why then is most of the focus on the GFS?