The weather models must have been infected by a randomising virus.

I blame Alex!

Not just the south!! The Midlands look a particularly favoured spot, along with [especially the southern half of] NW England (later into E MIds & Yaaarksher).

The Arpege is another model showing a period of snow for NW England/NE Wales/W Mids for Sat night/Sun morning.

I appreciate snow forecasting is notoriously difficult & details always changes, but I’d love that Arpege forecast to be roughly correct.

Just a slack area of high pressure with a few little troughs floating in it.

MetO, GFS & Arpege all showing this. Fingers crossed!!!

The NMM model sends an interesting little feature spinning across the SW on Monday... this is the 00Z run, the 06Z has just started rolling out:

That actually shows as rain but before that there is quite a bit of snow across the country:

Also the NMM model ends with HP building southwards over the UK, with -6C 850s well into the east coast.... hmmm

^^^ that's my pick of the models this morning 

GFS 06z Monday into Tuesday may now have the correct solution although more runs are clearly needed.

The first system on Monday fragments as it moves east and may give some areas a decent snow covering but with the energy in the mid Atlantic probably boosted by Alex, the second wave on Tuesday pushes the block away to leave us on the mild side from Wednesday onwards.

It is always fascinating when extreme/rare weather events occur but I wonder now if Alex had not occurred whether the heights into Greenland and possible Scandi would have provided a decent wintry spell in the UK.

The fat lady is lurking.

So no snow for Exmoor or DARTMOOR IN the SW this Sunday night into Monday as previously forecasted then?

The current forecast for the weekend and into Monday is dry, clear and frosty for most parts but features are now popping up so the Meto updates later this p.m. will be worth reading.

Again, I wonder if it is Alex that has changed the static pattern into a more mobile one?

I suggest that at this range you stop looking at blobby GFS maps and study the high-res models...

That GH seems to be inflating.

Too soon for accuracy I know, but the precip ties in with the first attack shown on the GFS 06z - the green area could be heavy wet snow if the intensity is there with temps at 1-3 degrees.

I think the chances of a snowy breakdown with perhaps 6-12 hours of snowfall may be increasing but more runs are needed.  If it does fall it won't be hanging around for long unless the models really do flip to a cold easterly or south easterly.

Well there are many twists and turns to come - the latest tracking forecast for Alex has it heading up to the south of Greenland and then turning 90 degrees to the WEST!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/024612.shtml?5-daynl

Surely that will enhance nothern blocking instead of degrading it and surely that will have the opposite effect on the progression of the Atlantic towards our shores.

London ecm ensembles.

Even to my largely uneducated eye, past Sunday you are best just looking out the window and seeing whats there, as opposed to second guessing it. What a divergent picture!

Plenty of snow up there today. These things are always different come the day. Further east further west (west is best after all))

That is Alex for you - clearly the deterministic models won't settle down until Alex has finished its trip around the north Atlantic.

From IF

Yes, some troubling-looking selections of output this morning for early next week, more especially for N and E of W Country. But exceptionally low confidence on what will unfold. Interestingly, latest UKMO overnight prognosis through Feb builds Atlantic block with us on colder eastern side/troughing... we may have the experience of current period to unravel yet again further down the line

Feb could be interesting

I think you're in a much better location than me, looks like 2 snow events over the next few days. Think I'm too far East sadly

Yes, so those are my thoughts for Feb, let's hope we can get it far enough North to stop the jet going OTT.

I'm curious as what he means by 'troubling-looking'.

Is he speaking as a snow enthusiast (and therefore disappointed at the lack of snow prospects), or does he have his public service hat on, and is expressing concern at the potential for problem-causing levels of snow?

Thoughts from the professionals in the USA on current model reliability:

.A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FORMS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. MIXED IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS
ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHEN THEY SUFFICIENTLY AGREE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ENSEMBLES. 
HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUICKLY BY DAY 4. THUS...THEIR USE IS QUICKLYDROPPED...
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCES THAT SHOW DETERMINISTIC SKILL FALLING QUICKLY AROUND DAY 4. CONFIDENCE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN BELOW AVERAGE FROM DAY 4 BEYOND.

(apologies but it always appears in capitals - I don't think the forecaster is shouting....)

Source: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Or is he merely expressing concern at the inability to pin down a reliable forecast?

GEFS6z shows signs of the cat being let loose among the pigeons: