probably because is churns out output twice as often... So twice as many chances to show any inconsistency!

I'm suggesting it's a mix of general model accuracy and the degree of change in output from run to run, over a short period of time.

Yes, the GFS is not alone in its oft-changing output, but it's the worst of a bad bunch in what is a difficult  scenario to model. Furthermore, I feel the 'lambasting' of the GFS is also a counter to several members seeing it as the God-like 'trendsetter' sometimes whenever it goes off on one of it's ultra progressive runs, leading posters to abandon ship and suggest it's all over because the GFS has picked up a 'new trend' 

True, and we'll be glued to each run religiously, regardless of whether we think it is a pile of poop or not.  This is what I find slightly odd.

ECM OP seems to have majority support from its ensemble suite at first glance..

EDIT: First glance wasn't very good..

Massive scatter with some support for the Op evolution but also a handful of others keeping it cold..

*My Head Hurts*

Fair points, but I disagree with the GFS output recently being the worst of the bunch. As CB just alluded to, it updates 4 times a day, which gives it more scope to bring out different outputs with each run, but from my observation of the this model recently, it hasn't been all that bad because it has cast doubt on the longevity of this cold spell from the start, more so than the others, and when it does that, it cannot be ignored in my opinion. Maybe it will be proved wrong in the end, who knows.

Well pretty solid support for the OP though there are a number that go the other way.

METO forecast (published earlier this pm) combined with temps out to next wed (available from their site) do appear to favour a slow, unspectacular, breakdown (at least that's my interpretation).... Maybe some kind of 'blend' between what it's model appears to be showing and the GFS scenario.

Fair enough  it is a matter of perception sometimes, especially as we have a lot of GFS data to interpret. I'm far from ignoring the GFS - I love that it updates 4x a day, but IMO in situations like this it just leads to more outcomes and more uncertainty.

GFS is on the right path I think (in a likely % outcome kind of way), and although I do trust UKMO and I'm intrigued as to why it is being so bullish about the longevity of this cold snap, I feel that with the way recent ens have gone it's only a matter of time before the models get a firm grip on the Hurricane Alex situation and set us up for a midweek breakdown (a slow, snowy one hopefully!).

But, all things considered, got to end the message with a big - WHO KNOWS WHAT'LL HAPPEN? 

Tomorrow's output will be key as the timeframe is fast becoming too short for another flip to cold from ECM and GFS in particular.

massive model divergence at t+4 days... T+10 days and beyond is meaningless imo 

really?  Op looks very much on mild side....

a few days back you wrote off the UKM model as the ECM/GFS showed a different scenario.... What happened? The ECM/GFS trended towards UKMO.... Now, they MAY be correct this time, but to write if off again after such recent experience, that's baffling.  The +72 fax sticks with its model, which I would have thought surprising if the outcome were so utterly clear and 'nailed on' as some are inferring.

Oh come on....its because it churns it out four times a day

From day 5 the op starts to go mild.  By Weds next week(day 6), as Steve Murr alludes to above,  its about the 3rd mildest out of 50

I agree Beast, I don't knock the glass half full brigade but deep down I think most of them know where this will go , there's just enough scatter in those ensembles though to give a very slight chance of another flip but IMO the ECM op will not be wrong at T96

3c for me, well below what was shown

Well the Met O five-dayer for here still shows NE to N winds on Wednesday. 

It's uncertain because the ens flipped in favour of a milder outcome only a day ago and the change is still in FI. The date of the breakdown is undecided and what happens thereafter is also undecided.

I agree the output is favouring mild on the whole, but it's not a done deal and a return to a 'Euroslug' looks unlikely. I think that term is used too often.

What a lot of scatter. By next Thursday it could be deep freeze or spring tulips in Amsterdam...