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backtobasics
15 January 2016 12:05:07
Hi All - been on here since the very early days (previously posted as Nottschops) and have eventually been drawn back for this classic spell of model watching ! This is as interesting as its ever been IMO.

Could someone kindly remind me how to view the various ensemble member runs, many thanks.
Brian Gaze
15 January 2016 12:06:06

Hi All - been on here since the very early days (previously posted as Nottschops) and have eventually been drawn back for this classic spell of model watching ! This is as interesting as its ever been IMO.

Could someone kindly remind me how to view the various ensemble member runs, many thanks.

Originally Posted by: backtobasics 


On TWO they're all available on the Chart viewer. Select GEFS and then the P you want to view:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gary L
15 January 2016 12:06:47


GEFS6z shows signs of the cat being let loose among the pigeons:


 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Interesting. It might be the different design but the ensembles for the London area on meteociel look different to me...This is roughly London 2m temps http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=314&y=140&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Maybe I'm missing something but you can see the difference?

Brian Gaze
15 January 2016 12:11:46


Interesting. It might be the different design but the ensembles for the London area on meteociel look different to me...This is roughly London 2m temps http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=314&y=140&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Maybe I'm missing something but you can see the difference?


Originally Posted by: Gary L 


The TWO is showing 2m max and min temps for all of the runs. The Meteo plot looks like it just shows the average 2m temp forecast for each run, but I COULD be wrong.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
15 January 2016 12:15:21

 


I think you're in a much better location than me, looks like 2 snow events over the next few days. Think I'm too far East sadly


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


The details are going to chop & change every run. Many times I've seen MBY being nailed on over successive runs for being one of the snow hotspots in an upcoming snow event, only for detail to change in the final 24 hours & get either little or none when the time comes.


Conversely, I've been on the verge of tantruming over looking like I'll miss out on a snow event according to successive runs, only for the 11th hour output to put me in the firing line. Even better, there's been more than one occasion when even the output has been showing MBY to miss the snow (or only have flurries) only for me to get a good covering.


To be honest, I'm wary that MBY is being forecast in advance to receive some snow.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
backtobasics
15 January 2016 12:20:32


 


On TWO they're all available on the Chart viewer. Select GEFS and then the P you want to view:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Thanks


 


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
15 January 2016 12:22:53


 


The TWO is showing 2m max and min temps for all of the runs. The Meteo plot looks like it just shows the average 2m temp forecast for each run, but I COULD be wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


There are four data points plotted per day so I thought they were actuals at 6h intervals.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Arbroath 1320
15 January 2016 12:29:44


GEFS6z shows signs of the cat being let loose among the pigeons:


 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Good grief, what a scatter. So basically anything is possible from 19 Jan


 


GGTTH
Rob K
15 January 2016 12:32:23

The NMM model has trended milder on its 06Z run but still has a decent spell of snow for most away from the far SW and south coastal strip on Monday.


 



 


Exceptionally knife-edge stuff looking at the 850s!


 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
15 January 2016 12:32:38


 


The TWO is showing 2m max and min temps for all of the runs. The Meteo plot looks like it just shows the average 2m temp forecast for each run, but I COULD be wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's correct - but on Meteociel you can select 'last four runs' as well as each of the last four.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
15 January 2016 12:34:41

It's got left behind on the last page but check the NMM models I just posted. Ultra marginal but Monday is looking very "interesting"...


 


beyond that though the 06Z NMM is a definite step away from prolonging the cold.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
15 January 2016 12:37:53

ARPEGE has also trended from white on the 00Z to wet on the 06Z (for my location).


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Steve Murr
15 January 2016 12:40:58
FWIW

Ive posted what I believe will be the locale of slider 1 ( over on NW ) with the snowline etc
If someone wanted to save & post an image of the APERGE 06z T72 thats what I believe feels the best bet....

S
Quantum
15 January 2016 12:59:12

UKMO chart for monday, frontal zones and estimated -5 850hpa isotherm are annotated.


ukmomon


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
15 January 2016 13:03:31

FWIW

Ive posted what I believe will be the locale of slider 1 ( over on NW ) with the snowline etc
If someone wanted to save & post an image of the APERGE 06z T72 thats what I believe feels the best bet....

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


 


Arpege 06Z 72h:



 


Not what most would want to see. For reference the equivalent 00Z 78h was here:



 


Fine margins, but heading the wrong way at the moment. Still time to change back though!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
15 January 2016 13:06:39

Even the high res models are struggling with the extent of the trough disruption.


NMM 06Z 114hrs:


 



 


Compare to the equivalent from the 00Z... 



 


Edit... sorry, posted wrong chart above. Fixed now


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
cowman
15 January 2016 13:39:56
John hamond said at lunch time the out look is very uncertain,fi probably 72hours.just hope it stays dry for a while at least.
Quantum
15 January 2016 14:27:52

I think there is a lot to be optimistic about. 


This is my interpretation (a fax chart if you like of Monday at midday)


myfax


There will be snow on the leading edge of this occluded front as it moves into cold air, I expect it to undercut. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Clare
15 January 2016 15:04:57
Oh I like that Quantum!
On the Mid Sussex downs,156m amsl on ridge near Ardingly. Igloo built in our garden,2010, lasted till march !
low1968
15 January 2016 15:07:36
Must have old browsers at work as Quantum's chart wont show in Chrome or IE
molly40
15 January 2016 15:09:41


I think there is a lot to be optimistic about. 


This is my interpretation (a fax chart if you like of Monday at midday)


myfax


There will be snow on the leading edge of this occluded front as it moves into cold air, I expect it to undercut. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


but how much snow,nobody even the Met seem to know :(

Saint Snow
15 January 2016 15:12:46

Oh I like that Quantum!

Originally Posted by: Clare 


 


I especially like the mild sector sitting over France!




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
backtobasics
15 January 2016 15:14:05


 


 


but how much snow,nobody even the Met seem to know :(


Originally Posted by: molly40 


 


I don't think even Sundays potential snow can be forecast accurately till late tomorrow and even then as always with snow it may change on Sunday.  As for Monday and beyond its all up in the air still (so to speak)

lanky
15 January 2016 15:16:07

John Hammond was saying on the BBC1 weather at 13:30 today that the forecast is very uncertain for the next few days. There is no precedent for an Atlantic hurricane in January and whilst it is  still not caught up in the general circulation the models don't know how it is going to interact and modify the direction of the jet stream


They were pretty certain about a milder incursion by the weekend yesterday but now the MetO at least don't sound so sure


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
molly40
15 January 2016 15:22:03
very good forecast by john,i think many places might see snow by midweek,if the low undercuts as shown on ukmo model today ,the next update will be interesting on its 12 run :)

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