Model Output Discussion 15/01/16 - 15:25 >>>>>>· Page 2

theweatheroutlook

Rob K
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:20:46

That Arpege run looks like an absolute snowfest to me. The 0C isotherm gets this far and then is brutally banished from our shores....

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

molly40
Guest

15 January 2016 16:21:01

#27

Clearly, as it's been modelled, then it is.

What's interesting is the view that Alex is going to disrupt cyclone development, which may completely alter the pressure patterns to our north in the medium term, so this could be possible.

Originally Posted by: kmoorman

And a low near the south coast on that chart too

warrenb
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:21:33

#28

That Arpege run looks like an absolute snowfest to me. The 0C isotherm gets this far and then is brutally banished from our shores....

Originally Posted by: Rob K

GEM is going the same way.

Tonbridge 45m

Rob K
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:23:50

#29

The northern flank of that blob would get clobbered...

(ignore the "risque de neige" - the white hatching doesn't show up on these charts even in Greenland and Norway!)

After the endless dull charts of December, we certainly have plenty to watch now!

Edited by user 15 January 2016 16:25:38 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Shropshire
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:24:55

#30

GEM is going the same way.

Originally Posted by: warrenb

Yes it is, how reliable is this Arpege ? We know the GEM is extremely unreliable.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

kmoorman
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:25:37

#31

The northern flank of that blob would get clobbered...

(ignore the "risque de neige" - the white hatching doesn't show up on these charts even in Greenland and Norway!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K

That's global warming for you

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

kmoorman
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:26:44

#32

Yes it is, how reliable is this Arpege ? We know the GEM is extremely unreliable.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

I read that the Met Office regard it highly, plus it was of course the only model to correctly forecast the Oct '87 'Hurricane' that hit Southern England,

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Downpour
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:26:52

#33

That Arpege run looks like an absolute snowfest to me. The 0C isotherm gets this far and then is brutally banished from our shores....

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Ooh La La! It was being slammed by Ian Brown earlier as a "minor model". Not sure Meteo France would agree with that analysis – they are a serious government forecasting body. Not really sure why Arpege isn't given more credence on these forums – the UKMO for example are said to rate the French model.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

molly40
Guest

15 January 2016 16:27:04

#34

Yes it is, how reliable is this Arpege ? We know the GEM is extremely unreliable.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Think its a higher res model than the big three?? but dont know its verification stats at all

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:27:16

#35

GEM may be regarded as unreliable, but it is producing a fabulous run.

New world order coming.

Downpour
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:28:14

#36

That's global warming for you

Originally Posted by: kmoorman

Heavy rains in Siberia

Chingford
London E4
147ft

warrenb
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:29:13

#37

I don't find GEM that unreliable, during the 2010 outbreak it did very well with the blocking.
Then I guess if it doesn't show zonality it must be unreliable.

Tonbridge 45m

Rob K
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:29:56

#38

Meanwhile the Guesswork Forecasting System spins up a deep runner low by 180 which pushes away the block with ease.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011512/gfs-0-186.png?12

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

warrenb
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:31:06

#39

Meanwhile the Guesswork Forecasting System spins up a deep runner low by 180 which pushes away the block with ease.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011512/gfs-0-186.png?12

Ah, back to reliability.

Tonbridge 45m

JACKO4EVER
Guest

15 January 2016 16:31:49

#40

That Arpege run looks like an absolute snowfest to me. The 0C isotherm gets this far and then is brutally banished from our shores....

Originally Posted by: Rob K

interesting chart, but BBC news has just revealed Sunday will reach 7 and 8 in the south west just 24 hours before this?

kmoorman
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:34:22

#41

Originally Posted by: Downpour

Yep - thought the same myself. This period of model watching is one on the most fascinating I can remember, not because we're going to get particularly cold weather (although we might) but because it let's us understand the complexity and challenges faced in forecasting the future when there are soo many variable involved.

It was tricky enough, and then you throw a hurricane into the mix!! Madness.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

warrenb
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:34:23

#42

Yep, Meto going fully with there model, which you would do with so much volatility and differences between them

Tonbridge 45m

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:35:57

#43

interesting chart, but BBC news has just revealed Sunday will reach 7 and 8 in the south west just 24 hours before this?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

That would have been based on the 6z runs. Forecasts are changing by the hour

New world order coming.

Rob K
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:36:29

#44

GEM may be regarded as unreliable, but it is producing a fabulous run.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

It's pretty good but turns into another Balkan wonder

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:38:15

#45

interesting chart, but BBC news has just revealed Sunday will reach 7 and 8 in the south west just 24 hours before this?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Yes I saw the same forecast, but it also said "disruptive snow possible" and stressed the uncertainty.

And I agree with Mr Moorman that this is the best spell of model watching I can remember.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Downpour
Advanced Member

15 January 2016 16:39:05

#46

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011512/gfs-0-186.png?12

Originally Posted by: warrenb

Ah, back to reliability.

The Chambers Dictionary

Reliability n.

Zonality, raging south-westerlies, mild dross.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

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