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kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:03:25


Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Su 17.01.2016 00 GMT


Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Su 17.01.2016 06 GMT


The wintry mix overnight Saturday


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


ARPEGE (The Hip Model) has snow 


 


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Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Rob K
15 January 2016 18:07:20

Yes I had been so busy looking at Monday that I missed Saturday night. A surprise snow event at T+30? I'll take that!


 


Meanwhile... ECM looks pretty good deep into FI (72 hours  )


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
soperman
15 January 2016 18:08:19

I think we can safely say that tonight's ECM is probably going to be a waste of time and it's Friday so off to the pub before I get snowed in!!

Gooner
15 January 2016 18:08:53

Yes I had been so busy looking at Monday that I missed Saturday night. A surprise snow event at T+30? I'll take that!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The Beeb show nothing like that , so Im expecting noting

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
15 January 2016 18:09:29


In a time of such model chaos, the sense of anticipation with the ECM from me is minimal, as we know that at the moment beyond about 60 hours all output is not to be trusted.  I'm loving this FI starting at 60 hours malarchy.


While we wait here's the NAVGEM 114 which then HP drifts over to allow Atlantic in by 180:


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes, it's weird looking at the charts but knowing that they're not worth close scrutiny beyond a few days - and the horizon for specific detail is even closer than usual. Just look at how th forecast for Sunday has changed from last night.


As others have said it's a truly exceptional time for studying the models.  I've always been a little in awe of the fact that the models do such a decent job much of the time, when you appreciate the great complexity of the atmosphere.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chiltern Blizzard
15 January 2016 18:11:50


Yes I had been so busy looking at Monday that I missed Saturday night. A surprise snow event at T+30? I'll take that!


 


Meanwhile... ECM looks pretty good deep into FI (72 hours  )


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


looks like a decent undercut!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:14:10


Yes I had been so busy looking at Monday that I missed Saturday night. A surprise snow event at T+30? I'll take that!


 


Meanwhile... ECM looks pretty good deep into FI (72 hours  )


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


It's madness, isn't it.  I bet the guys at the Met Office (at least those that need to issue forecasts) are pulling their hair out.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Rob K
15 January 2016 18:14:22

Cold air winning out at T96 on ECM... 0C isotherm never makes it past Devon.


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
15 January 2016 18:14:44


 


Meanwhile... ECM looks pretty good deep into FI (72 hours  )


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


ROFL


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


stophe
15 January 2016 18:17:20

Good to see the trendsetter still hanging in there from the 06 . http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:19:09

Good to see the trendsetter still hanging in there from the 06 . Originally Posted by: stophe 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


 


Yep - it looks lonely there. We need some others to go with it. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Gusty
15 January 2016 18:20:38

I'm still sticking with my hunch of a Scotland to Greeny High pressure establishing thanks to the SE-NW WAA south of Greenland. A growing trend across some of the NWP this evening.


ECM T+96 is feeling the love for it. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:21:29


I'm still sticking with my hunch of a Scotland to Greeny High pressure establishing. A growing trend across some of the NWP this evening.


ECM T+96 is feeling the love for it. 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


My concern is every time I've seen that on ANY model, it's not anchored to Greenland, and simply slips SE.  

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Phil G
15 January 2016 18:24:29
Chiltern Blizzard
15 January 2016 18:24:42
The UKMO seems to be least good for those interested in maximising wintry weather this evening... Quite a turnaround... Not that we should be surprised given how things have flip-flopped the past week.
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
The Beast from the East
15 January 2016 18:28:16

UKMO now the least wintry for next week


Interesting ECM. Now we need a pressure rise at higher latitude

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
15 January 2016 18:29:06
A hefty LP at 120 ready to steamroller through on the ECM.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
15 January 2016 18:30:44

ECM12z 144


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/144_mslp500.png


In the shorter term I could envisage some decent snow but also a raw and damp scene. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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The Beast from the East
15 January 2016 18:30:51

nearly a scandi high. We just need the jet to play ball


ENS postage stamps will be interesting. The temps for the De Bilt ens will be useless

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:30:57

A hefty LP at 120 ready to steamroller through on the ECM.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Or Support a growing Scandi High?  Well, almost.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Rob K
15 January 2016 18:32:15


 


 


Or Support a growing Scandi High?  Well, almost.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Yes I wasn't expecting that 144 chart - the low is heading SE. No route underneath though on this run... I think!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:33:16


 


Yes I wasn't expecting that 144 chart - the low is heading SE. No route underneath though on this run... I think!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Is this a situation where we need to look for steps in the right direction, or will the low have to follow the jet over the top of the low?


 


 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Rob K
15 January 2016 18:35:22


 


Is this a situation where we need to look for steps in the right direction, or will the low have to follow the jet over the top of the low?


 


 


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


I think it could easily evolve the right way from there with a few tweaks - if pressure fell over the Alps it would be game on...


Not happening this time though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JACKO4EVER
15 January 2016 18:35:44


I'm still sticking with my hunch of a Scotland to Greeny High pressure establishing thanks to the SE-NW WAA south of Greenland. A growing trend across some of the NWP this evening.


ECM T+96 is feeling the love for it. 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


could be right Steve. One to keep an eye on.


 


By the way, I wonder what Melanie's view is of the current model chaos- he seems to be rather conspicuous by his absence?


:-)

kmoorman
15 January 2016 18:36:20


 


I think it could easily evolve the right way from there with a few tweaks - if pressure fell over the Alps it would be game on...


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


But, THIS time it fails


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Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

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