Would tie in nicely with my punt at a late Jan/early Feb easterly

What I should have remembered is that modelling High Pressure just to the North and North East of the British Isles is very hard for the NWP to do, even at T96 or so hours, that and the fact that cold air is already in place when the Atlantic attack comes, you don't need monstrous HP to stop it (well Ireland and the far West does) just enough to deflect systems away.

That said, when the GFS and ECM 12zs rolled out on Thursday evening, only the bravest glass half full ramper would have seriously believed that the charts would look like this on Saturday morning.

I've been thinking this morning about some of the slowly, slowly catchy monkey cold spells of the 1980s that eventually became full-blown easterlies.

I'm thinking the same. I've wondered what the charts would have been showing on the lead up to prolonged cold 80's spells. I always remembered forecasts suggesting mild breakdowns in 3-5 days that never arrived.

Hi This just means that on the ensemble link showing, there are 20 different runs showing and 19 of them show snow. We call it the snow row as it shows as a row at the bottom of the ensemble chart. 

Martin

Possibly the most incisive comment of the past week, insofar as it is possible that this is what could transpire.  Having said that, at some point the Atlantic will regain control but that time seems to be getting pushed back further and further into FI.

Edit - ECM ensembles for Brugge  cold out til Friday and suggestive of a warm up next weekend.  We all know how these can change...

This is last Saturday's GFS 0z run for this Saturday morning

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&heure=0&jour=9&mois=1&annee=2016&archive=1

And ECM 0z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=9&mois=1&annee=2016&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=168&map=0&type=0

GFS has had a shocker.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 16TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold ridge of High pressure across the UK will give way to a frontal wave depression sliding SE from the NW of Scotland down across NW England the Midlands and SE England tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is uncertain for the next few days ranging from 2000ft or 500mtrs in the East rising to as much as 4000ft or 1000mtrs over the West and SW at times from tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Very Cold and frosty with the chance of snow for a time next week then probably becoming less cold for all with some rain in the North by the end of the week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The movement of the Jet Stream longer term is very uncertain this morning though currently the message is that the flow moving South across the UK in the coming days will become weak and ill defined later next week as far as the U is concerned before it blows more West to East across the UK for a time thereafter though details are very uncertain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed pattern with the general message out of a very much more complex pattern being that Low pressure disrupting near the UK could bring rain and some snow in raw cold conditions early next week before some resurgence of cold High pressure from midweek brings fog and frost before milder air moves NE across most parts and continues off and on thereafter with fronts crossing at times though with colder High pressure never that far away to the East and South.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run longer term message is for very much milder and windy weather longer term as the Atlantic bandwagon of wind and rain resets to the North and West of the UK. in the short term details still look quite elusive but the cold air looks to be proved stubborn to move for much of next week with troughs running into cold air delivering a mix of rain, sleet and some snow before the milder air pummels through by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a period of trough disruption across the UK as fronts edge NE across the UK early next the week before High pressure rebuilds midweek and then slides away SE late on in the run. Rain, sleet and snow would move across the UK early in the week before cold and frosty and perhaps foggy weather develops for a time finishing the week with milder SW winds affecting the North and West unlikely to reach the SE until next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the difficult battle between cold air across the UK and warmer Atlantic winds with a messy mixture of troughs delivering some rain and snow to Western and Central areas early in the week with the cold air winning back any territory lost as High pressure rebuilds close to the NE of the UK midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows the same messy mix of weather next week as repeated attempts by milder air to the SW of the UK interacts with the colder air over the UK and NW Europe. Eventually the North and West sees the mild air win out later next week and elsewhere over next weekend. Through the week though the raw weather is shown to deliver some rain, sleet or snow in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of much of the output this morning with the battle between milder winds from the Atlantic hitting the cold air across the UK with some rain and snow for some before High pressure builds into the UK for a time later next week before milder Atlantic winds make a more concerted push across the North and west by the end of next week and elsewhere eventually though High pressure remains close by just to the SE at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows very slow progress in dispersing the cold air across the UK next week with a couple of attempts shown on this morning's run each failing with rain and snow for some for a time. The power of the Atlantic does overwhelm the High pressure block formed to the NE midweek later as the High is pushed to the SE and SW winds along with the Jet stream realigns across the North with rain at times to the North and West at least in milder air for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has Low pressure in it's natural habitat near Iceland with High pressure to the South and SE with the Jet flow across Northern Britain meaning we are likely to see less cold and wetter conditions with rain at times in the North and West especially with the driest weather in the East and South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all show mild air eventually with an agreed delay of the onset of this now until later next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.0 pts over GFS's 63.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.6 pts to 45.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Finally today we do appear to have gained some common ground between the output today as the general message is for the current cold snap to hang around for a while longer with messy attempts of milder air to come into the UK from the SW next week largely failing away from the SW itself. In fact there is also common ground today to develop High pressure close to the NE of the UK by the middle of the week pushing back any push from the Atlantic then and returning frost and freezing fog patches for many for a time. Equally we have good support that this High will more easily slip away SE across Europe late in the week opening the door to a resurgence of the Jet stream on a much more Northerly track and SW winds, first for the North and West and eventually for all. The change to milder weather looks quickest in the North and West where some rain at times becomes likely while the South and East stay drier and still a little cool at times as on most output High pressure stays quite close to the South and East. While the above sentiments do express the most likely outcome painted by the models this morning day to day differences especially early in the period are still likely as the remnants of ex hurricane Alex in the Western Atlantic muddies the waters with the progress East of any mild weather still very uncertain. This of course is crucial in determining who has snow and who has rain as each push of milder air attempts to cross Britain but if I had to pin anywhere to have a god chance of snow from Sunday to Wednesday I would say the Midlands and the SE could be the sweet spot but of course that is open to change. So finally while snowy armageddon is unlikely from this morning's output some areas are going to see some meaningful snow soon and while the end result looks like returning the milder Atlantic winds late next week there is still a lot of water to cross under the bridge before we arrive at next weekends solutions we can only hope that the models remain to progressive in the dispersal of the cold block.

Next Update Sunday January 17th 2016 from 09:00

Reading ECM ensembles - colder than average until Thursday now, then (as far as today's run goes) a breakthrough of mild air on Friday. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's different come the time!

It hasn't had the best of weeks, that's for sure.

I have long thought that GFS does best when we have a straightforward zonal pattern as we had in December, and that when blocking comes into the equation, on some occasions anyway, it struggles somewhat.

The problem is the upstream signals all point to the jet powering up and this is reflected in all the models beyond day 5 or 6.  Its impossible to stop this atlantic train and divert the jet south.

We just have to accept the spell will end on thurs or fri, then we will have probably a 2 week period of "normal" weather, and hopefully some blocking will return in Feb or March

That could be the impacts of whats left of  Alex

Personally - Alex pushing up the west cost of Greenland must have an impact on cold air coming down the other side... this is being played out a little in the charts, but not as much as I would have thought.  Ergo - the crazyness of the charts.  

This mornings GFS is starting to look a little like the impact i would expect. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011606/gfs-0-144.png?6

This system does not undercut  so its game over for our high

Is this the same way that we have to accept it is a two day toppler with the westerlies moving in or should your post above be viewed in a different way? You have totally ignored the evolution over the last few days and the changes in the coming days with each model run. We absolutely do NOT have to accept what you state. It may be correct but it is extremely far from the certainty that you insinuate. 

Look at the EC ens. Show me one of the 50 that keeps the high at a favourable latitude. I don't think there are any.

Are they showing the same as yesterday, or the day before, or the day before? Your statement of absolute certainty is misplaced given the changes from run to run. I have not said that the outlook you claim to know will be incorrect just that you are ignoring the inter-run variation. I would have thought based on the last week and prvious posts you would be more cautious in in claiming such things. If the breakdown is put back by 48hrs by this time tomorrow will you post the same absolute certainty but just change the timescale?