Agreed 

I'm actually surprised at Beast for posting that, seems a few have an agenda on here 

IIRC there were some runs, from GFS mostly, that had the cold spell ending either this weekend or early in the coming week. Hmm, wonder what happened to that!

FI starts very early at the moment IMO.

If you keep on saying it, I'm sure you'll be right eventually, Geoff 

You really have become a miserable sod during this coldish spell. 

But you will always get a few ens members that disagree with the pack which is what has been happening recently. However, there seems to be universal agreement now from the models on the pattern change, even though it may be delayed a day or two

I've been a miserable sod since the election last May

I'm not expecting to see any snow down here from this spell

It has been put back quite a few days though from what was originally shown though, that's the point. As I said, it was according to some runs several days ago supposed to be either this weekend or on Mon/Tues. Now we're looking at late next week at the earliest, that is assuming it happens at all.

You are undercutting your own reputation here Beast, back off a little with the wildly misleading and sweeping statements?

Personally, I consider FI starts at t+96 currently, so I take little interest in the charts beyond that point.

There's a dedicated thread Kieron.

I have a picture of Beast trudging through the snow carrying two lumps of coal.....

Nah. Tories shut all the mines!

Sorry for going OT but I just wondered if Brian & the Team would consider a section for Regional threads perhaps just for Winter Months? Might save a lot of Willy Waving hissy fits and IMBY views

If I recall correctly, it has been discussed a few times in the past, and after careful consideration, has been discounted for various reasons.  

OK doc fair enough, I know NW have them and they create decent traffic especially days like today. It might help TWO bit.

Thanks 

Into FI here so bit of a health warning:

GFS t72

UKMO t72:Quite different!!

Arpege t48 ...looks like developing a channel/N France low:

and here at t72 also: looksto me

And t72 DWD:  making UKMO the odd one out as it was yesterday.

At least we're at the stage now where snow is actually being tracked across the country rather than just sitting out in FI - as shown by the lack of posts on this thread today!

It's also mildly amusing that MetO is now more progressive than GFS by 120.

And it's also quite amusing that the sub-120 range is still FI, it's been quite a few days of uncertainty now!

Not just the GFS. There has been a lot of talk recently on this forum about how bad the GFS has handled the current set up and how 'consistent' the UKMO model has been. I personally have not observed this at all. I went on the Metociel site and went back to the 10th in the archives to see which model handled today's set up most correctly, which was then 144 hrs out, the limit of the UKMO model. In this very small  sample at least, the results are telling:

While none of the two models were 'spot on' for today, pound for pound, I think the GFS was far more on the ball.

Both charts are from the 00z run on the 10th.

Indeed.  Here's the GEM t72: Although there's an element of truth to Brian's Wacky races analogy yesterday, all lead to a declining high slipping SE at present, with Thursday OR Friday the last cold day of the spell, not counting the SW which is affected by mild air earlier.

That's because it's handled it appallingly! It's done more flipping around than any of the other models, including its entire ensemble suites.

ECM flipped a few days back and since then has retained a milder outlook from Thursday. It didn't flip back again, unlike GEFS (which then flipped back again afterwards).

MetO stuck with a colder, blocked outlook for longest. In the last day or so it too has flipped, but bear in mind we don't get to see the charts for the ensembles (MOGREPS) so we have no way of knowing what the clustering is like other than third-hand info.

MetO did the best overall IMO, then ECM and then GFS last - by quite a way. It's not a case of cherry-picking a run, either, that's based on the last week or so of model output.

After all, we're still looking at Thursday or Friday (on current models) before milder air sweeps across the UK. Bearing in mind MetO was insistent that it would be cold until then until the last couple of runs... it takes the prize IMO. ECM had Thursday as it's "mild sweep" day since it flipped and of course GFS has varied from today, tomorrow, then Monday... you get the idea.

Blimey! The Arpege is full of mischief with ANOTHER channel runner at t96 thanks to further undercutting.  One to watch...

For those of a nervous disposition its probably best that you look away from what the GEM is dreaming in FI:Here at 222 hrs: