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Gooner
16 January 2016 16:49:15


For those of a nervous disposition its probably best that you look away from what the GEM is dreaming in FI:Here at 222 hrs:



 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


If only

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
16 January 2016 16:53:18


 


If only


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It sinks south anyhow.  Good job, don't think I can handle much more model watching of this intensity.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
GIBBY
16 January 2016 17:11:25

I think the problem of the last week has been the forecasters and UKMO that have put a lot of thought in the fact that they anticipated Hurricane Alex in the Western Atlantic to have had much more effect on pumping High pressure up to the North of the U.K. than has actually occurred. Therefore with that not having developed has ultimately led to the model now showing less prevention from allowing the Atlantic back in next week. That being the case imo it could be that UKMO might of been over emphasising the blocking in which case GFS and the others were not as wrong with the eventual evolution as some say but just out with the timing of the pattern change.


Still having said the above I think we should wait until the end of next week on which all models now agree will be milder and see then which models have performed the best through the previous two weeks before calling any overall judgements prematurely.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Retron
16 January 2016 17:25:11


That being the case imo it could be that UKMO might of been over emphasising the blocking in which case GFS and the others were not as wrong with the eventual evolution as some say but just out with the timing of the pattern change.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


As I've said before, the people to listen to at times like this are the Met Office's own forecasters - they have far more experience of these things than you or I (or anyone else on here, aside from the odd lurker) has. Crucially, they were backing their own model even in the face of opposition from GFS and other models - and it looks like they were correct to do so, as mentioned we now look like seeing cold weather over much of the UK until Thursday.


The Met Office (and its models) were the least wrong of any of the interpretations (and models) I've seen. They weren't perfect, no, but they've handled this better than anyone else, or any other model. Experience counts for a hell of a lot at times like this, models are no substitute for it.


Remember too that the MetO run that we see only goes out to day 6, we don't get to see the juicy stuff beyond that.


As for what happens at the end of this week, although the models are generally going for the cold to seep away during Thursday there are still enough dissenting runs in the ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) to say that it's only likely at the moment, it's by no means certain.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Gusty
16 January 2016 17:31:32

It's been a good run but based on the 12z's so far (and the background signals) I have to concede that the atlantic looks set to return by Thursday Friday. Hopefully some normality will return for a while before the next instalment of winter potential appears. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2016 17:37:47
Some completely wasted charts over the last couple if days. Wasted because in July or August the South of England would be looking at a fortnight of largely cloudless skies, temperatures in the 30s and at least one Spanish plume. These if only it were July charts are so annoying.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
marting
16 January 2016 17:40:55
Plenty of interestingly wintry charts in the GFS ensembles, could be some interesting weeks ahead.
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Whether Idle
16 January 2016 17:42:51


 


As I've said before, the people to listen to at times like this are the Met Office's own forecasters - they have far more experience of these things than you or I (or anyone else on here, aside from the odd lurker) has. Crucially, they were backing their own model even in the face of opposition from GFS and other models - and it looks like they were correct to do so, as mentioned we now look like seeing cold weather over much of the UK until Thursday.


The Met Office (and its models) were the least wrong of any of the interpretations (and models) I've seen. They weren't perfect, no, but they've handled this better than anyone else, or any other model. Experience counts for a hell of a lot at times like this, models are no substitute for it.


Remember too that the MetO run that we see only goes out to day 6, we don't get to see the juicy stuff beyond that.


As for what happens at the end of this week, although the models are generally going for the cold to seep away during Thursday there are still enough dissenting runs in the ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) to say that it's only likely at the moment, it's by no means certain.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agreed Darren.  Ive just looked at around 4 ensemble members on the GFS that hold a high to the N/NE at 132 hrs, so although The Atlantic is favourite to finally reclaim the British Isles within its atmospheric dependencies, there is perhaps a 25% chance of the cold lingering and possibly re-intensifying.


Here's pert 20@ 102hrs:



 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
16 January 2016 17:44:15

Plenty of interestingly wintry charts in the GFS ensembles, could be some interesting weeks ahead.
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


Yes, at a glance the 12z GFS ensemble suite looks a bit better than previous runs.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Whether Idle
16 January 2016 17:52:23


 


Yes, at a glance the 12z GFS ensemble suite looks a bit better than previous runs.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes, Doc here's the ensembles for east Kent, for example: Note the gang of 4 breakaway on 20th:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
AIMSIR
16 January 2016 17:53:03

The FAX charts seem to be pushing the 528 North, at least until T120?.


https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160116.1726.PPVG89.png


https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160115.2159.PPVO89.png

Retron
16 January 2016 18:15:34


The FAX charts seem to be pushing the 528 North, at least until T120?.


https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160116.1726.PPVG89.png


https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160115.2159.PPVO89.png


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


The 528 line doesn't mean much in this situation; once you have low-level cold air in place it's a devil to shift unless you get a SW'ly or westerly blast. One way to look at it is by using Theta-E charts, such as these:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=6


Another is to look at 950hPa temperature charts, such as these:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t925&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


Yet another one is the 1000-850 thickness charts:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


In general, you're looking for blues on the Theta-E charts, a 950hPa temperature of zero or below and a 1000-850 thickness less than 129. Add in a dewpoint of zero or below. Get those in place and you're looking at snow even if the 1000-500 thickness is over 528.


All of the above mean more in these sort of cold-air-in-place setups than the 528 line, which is only really a crude guide.


Incidentally the warm front on the second Fax chart is likely to mark the boundary between our current cold airmass and ex-tropical airmass. It's also struggling to move NE'wards - note the cold front following it's decaying (the little - / - marks) and the system following behind is already occluding out!


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
16 January 2016 18:26:02


Wouldn't complain  JFF


A few members have blocking around later in the month

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


AIMSIR
16 January 2016 18:40:54


 


The 528 line doesn't mean much in this situation; once you have low-level cold air in place it's a devil to shift unless you get a SW'ly or westerly blast. One way to look at it is by using Theta-E charts, such as these:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=6


Another is to look at 950hPa temperature charts, such as these:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t925&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


Yet another one is the 1000-850 thickness charts:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


In general, you're looking for blues on the Theta-E charts, a 950hPa temperature of zero or below and a 1000-850 thickness less than 129. Add in a dewpoint of zero or below. Get those in place and you're looking at snow even if the 1000-500 thickness is over 528.


All of the above mean more in these sort of cold-air-in-place setups than the 528 line, which is only really a crude guide.


Incidentally the warm front on the second Fax chart is likely to mark the boundary between our current cold airmass and ex-tropical airmass. It's also struggling to move NE'wards - note the cold front following it's decaying (the little - / - marks) and the system following behind is already occluding out!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks Darren, for a bucket load of interesting information.


Loaded to favs. for further perusal at leisure.

Jerry P
16 January 2016 18:45:48


 


The 528 line doesn't mean much in this situation; once you have low-level cold air in place it's a devil to shift unless you get a SW'ly or westerly blast. One way to look at it is by using Theta-E charts, such as these:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=6


Another is to look at 950hPa temperature charts, such as these:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t925&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


Yet another one is the 1000-850 thickness charts:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


In general, you're looking for blues on the Theta-E charts, a 950hPa temperature of zero or below and a 1000-850 thickness less than 129. Add in a dewpoint of zero or below. Get those in place and you're looking at snow even if the 1000-500 thickness is over 528.


All of the above mean more in these sort of cold-air-in-place setups than the 528 line, which is only really a crude guide.


Incidentally the warm front on the second Fax chart is likely to mark the boundary between our current cold airmass and ex-tropical airmass. It's also struggling to move NE'wards - note the cold front following it's decaying (the little - / - marks) and the system following behind is already occluding out!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


...and that's the kind of post that makes this forum so great for enthusiastic amateurs such as me.  Thank you Retron and to the others who take the time and effort to post using their knowledge in a way that gives us a chance to learn.  Cheers! 

West Somerset, 103m asl
marky1
16 January 2016 19:06:22


 


The 528 line doesn't mean much in this situation; once you have low-level cold air in place it's a devil to shift unless you get a SW'ly or westerly blast. One way to look at it is by using Theta-E charts, such as these:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=6


Another is to look at 950hPa temperature charts, such as these:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t925&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


Yet another one is the 1000-850 thickness charts:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


In general, you're looking for blues on the Theta-E charts, a 950hPa temperature of zero or below and a 1000-850 thickness less than 129. Add in a dewpoint of zero or below. Get those in place and you're looking at snow even if the 1000-500 thickness is over 528.


All of the above mean more in these sort of cold-air-in-place setups than the 528 line, which is only really a crude guide.


Incidentally the warm front on the second Fax chart is likely to mark the boundary between our current cold airmass and ex-tropical airmass. It's also struggling to move NE'wards - note the cold front following it's decaying (the little - / - marks) and the system following behind is already occluding out!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thanks Darren!

Windy Willow
16 January 2016 19:08:27


 


...and that's the kind of post that makes this forum so great for enthusiastic amateurs such as me.  Thank you Retron and to the others who take the time and effort to post using their knowledge in a way that gives us a chance to learn.  Cheers! 


Originally Posted by: Jerry P 


 


Absolutely, if it wasn't for the likes of a few of the regular posters on here who take the time to explain what is what simply, I wouldn't really have much of a clue so I add to the thanks. 

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Rob K
16 January 2016 19:26:28
Less said about the ECM the better this evening.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
16 January 2016 19:58:16


It's been a good run but based on the 12z's so far (and the background signals) I have to concede that the atlantic looks set to return by Thursday Friday. Hopefully some normality will return for a while before the next instalment of winter potential appears. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Sounds a reasonable enough shout although I called Mon/Tues the other day and it looks like I'm out with that so things are still changing


Whilst not a 'classic' cold spell it's been fascinating model watching (and will be for a few days yet I suspect) and coming off such a remarkably mild December it's been quite some turnaround

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Beast from the East
16 January 2016 20:00:28

Awful UKMO and ECM. But at least this cold spell has delivered some snow. The first many have seen for 2 years


Here's to a proper block sometime in Feb. I Imagine this thread will go very quiet for a few weeks


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
16 January 2016 20:01:24


 


That's because it's handled it appallingly! It's done more flipping around than any of the other models, including its entire ensemble suites.


ECM flipped a few days back and since then has retained a milder outlook from Thursday. It didn't flip back again, unlike GEFS (which then flipped back again afterwards).


MetO stuck with a colder, blocked outlook for longest. In the last day or so it too has flipped, but bear in mind we don't get to see the charts for the ensembles (MOGREPS) so we have no way of knowing what the clustering is like other than third-hand info.


MetO did the best overall IMO, then ECM and then GFS last - by quite a way. It's not a case of cherry-picking a run, either, that's based on the last week or so of model output.


After all, we're still looking at Thursday or Friday (on current models) before milder air sweeps across the UK. Bearing in mind MetO was insistent that it would be cold until then until the last couple of runs... it takes the prize IMO. ECM had Thursday as it's "mild sweep" day since it flipped and of course GFS has varied from today, tomorrow, then Monday... you get the idea.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


I can't agree. If I was to have solely followed the UKMO this last week, I would have been expecting very cold and potentially snowy conditions by now courtesy of direct Arctic airmass. Needless to say, that has not happened. I too keep a watch on the models and cannot see why the GFS got the most slack. Of course, run on run it will show various solutions but overall, it has been no less or no more reliable than any of the other models - certainly for my part of the world at least. Perhaps my observations are wrong but I yet to see any substantial evidence to convince me of the contrary.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
idj20
16 January 2016 20:01:55

GFS still playing about with the idea of a disrupted upper vortex at the 30 hPa level. JFF tenuous stuff and still in the 15 days range, though.

Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
16 January 2016 20:03:42


Awful UKMO and ECM. But at least this cold spell has delivered some snow. The first many have seen for 2 years


Here's to a proper block sometime in Feb. I Imagine this thread will go very quiet for a few weeks


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Out of curiosity how do you define "a few"?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
16 January 2016 20:12:55


 


Out of curiosity how do you define "a few"?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Assuming the next cold spell is Mid Feb, then perhaps by the end of the month, the models will start picking it up


Anyway, looking forward to my first snowfall since 2013.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
16 January 2016 20:16:48


 


Assuming the next cold spell is Mid Feb, then perhaps by the end of the month, the models will start picking it up


Anyway, looking forward to my first snowfall since 2013.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


So, two then? 


Fingers crossed you get some snow this evening/night. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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