A determined swing mild now from the ensembles for Brugge.  ECM is clearly one of the THE mildest runs from day 4 onwards and is The Mildest member at day 9.  Cold til Thursday, then switching mild methinks.

Don't look too far ahead Beast - the channel runner shown on Arpege 12z is on the GFS 18z - this will need close watching at the time:

There will be more twists and turns before the end of next week you can be sure 😉

The Op isn't that far from dishing out more cold ................is it

Here's tonight's t96 fax:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?1

Compared to the previous fax of the same timeframe:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1

A key difference is the pressure rise over Spain in tonight's run.

And the t120 fax:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1

Looks like Bracknell are following their 12z model run.

AROME ultra high res snowfall rate monday 6am. Light patchy snow in the east. This model is quite trustworthy aswell although I'm suprised how far east the snow is getting. 

Ignore the drivel at the bottom, I'm not used to this (grads doesn't work for this).

GEM isn't bad!

And it has support from about 8 of its ensemble members for high pressure over Europe to maintain a south-easterly flow over the east and south-east of the U.K. Into next weekend! Start of a new trend perhaps?

yes need to get out of this pattern change quickly, always takes a couple of weeks to reload and fannying around with this muck is losing valuable winter weeks for proper cold.  

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 17TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The frontal wave will clear the SE this morning followed by a more active trough approaching from the SW tonight and tomorrow weakening later as a chilly SE flow ahead of it affects many places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 1500ft to 2000ft across Eastern Britain and above 5000ft in the far SW. The milder air will encroach further East tonight but recede back towards the far SW again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The movement of the Jet Stream looks like crossing the UK later in the week though not as strong as we have seen currently. The longer term theme still shows the flow relatively weak and revolving clockwise around the North of the UK as High pressure is favoured to lie close to the South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very complex pattern across the next two weeks with day to day details impossible to pin down. The cold theme of early in the week looks like being eroded away from the West by the end of the week with some rain at times especially across the North and West. Then through the second week changeable conditions look likely and although the Atlantic airflow will play it's part in maintaining fairly average temperatures cold weather could return at times and towards the end of the run with frost and fog in places and High pressure builds over or to the North and NE of the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today shows rather cold weather for much of the working week to come before milder winds from the Atlantic arrive before next weekend as High pressure to the East slips away SE across Europe. then next weekend shows rain at times in blustery but less cold West winds. the second week then shows the North and NW favoured to see mild and unsettled weather with further rain while the South and East see a lot of dry weather closer to High pressure over nearby Europe. the end of the run shows a strong High to the South and mild weather for all of the UK in a Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 50% pack with mild SW winds and rain at times at the end of the run while the other 50% indicate the chance of more influence from High pressure to the South or SE of the UK. However, the main theme remains a mild one from GFS longer term today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a week of two halves as the first half shows rather cold and bright weather for many with frost and fog patches by night and some rain in the far SW as High pressure holds firm to the East. Then from midweek mild and stronger SW winds advance across all areas with rain at times for all, heaviest across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a slow and arduous battle across the West and SW of the UK as fronts become slow moving against a block of cold air to the North and East of the UK. By Friday there is signs of a more pronounced push of troughs from the SW but it looks as though it will take until the weekend to reach the extreme East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows an even slower theme towards mild weather as High pressure remains to the East almost to next weekend. As a result troughs of low pressure to the SW repeatedly try and push milder air into the UK weakening and decaying as they do but delivering some rain or sleet in places before they do. By next weekend a trough does appear to bring milder air with some rain across the UK but with High pressure hot on it's heels any mildness looks relative with frost and fog patches under UK based High pressure looking likely to end the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a similar theme towards somewhat miler air making it across the UK by next weekend. In the meantime a lot of rather cold and benign weather looks likely with some frost and fog at night and occasional rain in the SW. Then next weekend a NW/SE split sets up with milder and changeable conditions in SW winds over the NW while the South and East still look mainly dry, perhaps with frost at night continuing in light winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the same progression towards a more traditional winter pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High to the South by the end of the coming week. In the meantime rather cold conditions with a lot of cloud but a chilly SE breeze and some night frosts look likely before the rain in the SW advances NE to all by Thursday/Friday with the heaviest rain and strongest winds towards the North and West from next weekend and temperatures well up to average if not somewhat above locally.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows westerly winds across the UK with a Jet Stream splicing West to east across the UK. There could be many options within members different to this pattern but overall one would suspect from a chart like this that we are most likely to be milder with rain at times especially across the North and West in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all show a theme of an eventual return to milder SW winds by next weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.4 pts over GFS's 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.1 pts to 46.5 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Whatever people say about this cold period some places have seen some snow of late and that comes as a positive for those folks who have been searching for snow all Winter. However, for most it has been a disappointingly ill behaved cold period as the promised deep frosts and clear skies have evaded many with cold rain for some in among the few that heave seen snowfall. The weekend forecasts given on Friday have proved nothing short of abyssmal with little if any sunshine let alone frost here. However, it is what it is and looking forward in this morning's output the cold wins back somewhat for a time this week as an attempt of mild Atlantic air is stalled near SW England tomorrow. So the rain from this trough looks like reaching Central areas before pulling back SW through the day tomorrow. Any snowfall accompanying this is likely only on the highest ground of Wales and the NW as the cold across the UK has become modified by last nights trough and lack of low overnight temperatures. Once the rain dissolves across the SW later tomorrow it looks like several days of benign and rather cold weather with a lot of cloud at times but some bright weather with patchy night frosts, hardest towards the North and East. Then from around Thursday another push of milder air looks likely as the Jet stream realigns to the North of the UK and pushes the cold blocking High in the North Sea away SE. Rain will accompany a NE moving trough with no doubt some more temporary snow on Northern and Eastern hills before all areas become milder and more changeable by the weekend. Most output then shows an Atlantic domination through the second week although suggestions by some that High pressure will never be far away to the South or indeed over the South at times later in the period some overnight frosts look possible again late in the second week. Rainfall as normal in this pattern look heaviest across the North and West and most places across the UK should achieve average temperatures at worst through much of the second week as winds are biased towards a SW point. So that's how I see it this morning. Here in the SW the cold period has been very underwhelming and with the look of the output today it could be a while before we see the next one. The models are giving little away this morning as to where if anywhere that will come from but assuming that there are no surprises to come before the demise of this current cold period in the days that are left of it then it looks like it may be into February before we see the next risk of wintry weather on a meaningful scale.

Next Update Monday January 18th 2016 from 09:00

Maybe not for long though, Andy. Matt Hugo, according to what I saw posted in the media thread last night, is not expecting a return to the pattern we saw throughout December and seems to be thinking along the same lines re Feb that the MetO have been thinking along.

So, after a fair bit of flip flopping it looks like the cold air will be washed away Thursday/Friday for most, with the chance of some snow as the Atlantic tries to break through (Thursday looked quite snowy for some in the North on the 0z).

Other than a brief period where the models were showing a large Greenie HP, this always looked like a chilly/cold spell rather than a nationwide classic, and that's what's happened. Nice to see the pessimistic runs that GFS was churning out showing mild Westerlies by Fri/Sat just gone were significantly wide of the mark though

Further afield and it certainly looks like a period of Atlantic weather will arrive (who'd have thought that eh, what with us being on the edge of the ocean which is the main driver for our weather). Whether cold returns and how soon is of course unknown, although the 00z GFS ens hardly scream nailed on zonality to me:-

There's not a lot of rain shown down here and enough colder options to suggest all is not lost

In the meantime I'll look forward to more snow reports over the next few days as the Atlantic systems bump in to our little cold air pool

(Oh and on cold air pools bit surprised the ECM sinks the Scandi cold pool as easily as it does - not sure it's got that right personally!).

I have to agree with that, this cold spell has been a huge disappointment for most of England and is dead in the water. This borefest winter grinds its uneventful way to a dismal conclusion.

There will always be regional variations , I'm not far from you and I have had 2  coverings of snow in 3 days so its not been that bad and several frostsand some low daytime temps.......considering where we were onJan 1st.......its not thatbad

84h fax has the HP still over us on Wednesday

Still cold on Thursday

I guess it is western districts of England which have missed out - it rained yesterday and it is drizzling this morning.

For the perennial optimists, this chart show a large wodge of very cold air moving westwards in 2 weeks' time. Will it reach here? Is the run just an outlier? But such massive movements of intense cold take a lot of stopping, if they verify.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html