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Looks a lot further East. Is there a chance some of that might even hit here? We've still got lying snow in the garden from a few days ago, but it's very icy - could do with a top up!
Originally Posted by: NickR
Based on its progress I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility! Sadly it would need to make a ridiculous amount of progress to make it to here.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
HA! :P
I'd expect the Pennines to act as a shield - often in these situations it seems to reform around Darlo/Boro.
Yes, but that is a forecast and people have been commenting on the cruel progression of the precipitation compared with what is/has been modelled and forecast.
I'm merely commenting on what he showed, as it progressed South it expanded further West,,,,,,,,,,,looking at the radar is a here and now , his model is suggesting something extra later on
Originally Posted by: Gooner
I actually saw the forecast and the radar and overlapping model/forecast graphic for 3pm did not match, so it has even started off from an inaccurate point. Things may develop as that forecast showed but do not be surprised if things evolve a little differently.
Indeed , as we know, forecasting snow is a nightmare for the UK
For me to get something that band has to do more Southward sinking than SEward .....if you know what I mean
Well it seems to be heading straight for me. Just been chopping logs in the garden and in the last half hour or so it has clouded over quite a bit. GFS seems to suggest I may be too far west though - the mild air seems to be pushing through more than first thought. Will be touch and go...
Impressive and very unexpected 4cms of dry snow here this afternoon with temperature below freezing all day, a real Christmas card scene, fantastic!
Andy
The 12z GFS definitely moves things eastwards - all the way to Kent, in fact! Somewhere just east of the rain/snow dividing line is in for a fair amount of snow, although whether it ends up as shown remains to be seen... I'd bet it wobbles back and forth right to the last minute!
Originally Posted by: Retron
the dividing line is about 10 miles east of me. Just a little correction please!
Moderate snow here right on the west coast of Scotland. Been snowing continuously for around 7 hours, got around 2 inches but expecting it to stop in the next few hours.
Contrary to the radar which suggests I should be under moderate snow, I can confirm that we have yet to see a flake in at least this part of Leeds!
Although we are in the centre of the warning area it seems to be going much further east than forecast be suprised if we see anything at all now .
Originally Posted by: Weathermac
If you get some then I'm sure to......time will tell
Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock
2 hours ago you weren't expecting much
Just shows
yes marcus but looking at the radar it seems to be slipping more east than southeast and missing us .
I'm hoping for a more Southward push later as it struggles to go further East, the radar shows some just North of me at 17:00
that blob of precip went right over here and nothing fell from the sky alas very disappointing.....hoping it peps up for you marcus.
I wouldn't expect many to get much from this away from some areas where forcing becomes a factor. The first main area of PPN is very much fragmenting as it moves SSE'wards.
We've had PPN falling since 2pm, veering between moderate snow & light sleety snow (and all in between) and it's left a thin slushy covering. We've just been out to the M-i-L's, who lives about 4 miles east of us & the snow was heavier & sticking better (although still under 1cm); as we drove back westwards, the intensity & covering got gradually lighter. We picked our eldest up from cheer practice, which is a couple of miles west of here & there was hardly any covering.
In other words, the boundary between the milder air aloft & colder air still in place was over St Helens in this area.
There's another, much bigger area of PPN over the borders, but that too is fizzling. We - sorry, I - could with the block to the east forcing the trough to back westwards, but I don't see this happening.
Put it this way, I doubt any low-lying area south of Derbyshire will see anything more than 1cm overnight (and the vast majority of England south of this will not see any lying snow)