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With all the calamity in the NWP model output, the final CET for Jan '16 must now be about as unpredictable as it gets.
Good luck everyone...
Met Office Hadley 6.2c. Anomaly 2.6c. Provisional to9th.
Metcheck 6.09c. Anomaly 1.94c.
Netweather 6.86c. Anomaly 2.67c.
Met Office Hadley 6.1c. Anomaly 2.6c.
Metcheck 5.90c. Anomaly 1.75c.
Netweather 6.71c. Anomaly 2.52c.
Cheadle Hulme Weather 6.5c. Anomaly 1.6c.
Clevedon Weather 7.9c. Anomaly 1.3c.
Mount Sorrel 5.9c. Anomaly 1.7c.
Peasedown St John 6.9c. Anomaly 1.2c.
Based on recent model output, and without computing any data (short on time at the mo), seems to me we should be able to knock close to 1.5*C off the CET by the end of the weekend.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
So, going of Art's update yesterday, that'd take it down to 4.6c
Did anyone go for 4.6c....?
[quote=Saint Snow;754152]
[ Saint Snow
Caz
Essan All on 4.60c.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
That's the weekend. But for the month, The Merthyr Tydfil Magi Model adds another 0.7C on.
Met Office Hadley 6.0c. Anomaly 2.4c. Provisional to 11th.
Metcheck 5.77c. Anomaly 1.61c.
Netweather 6.52c. Anomaly 2.33c.
Fair to say recent ECM det. runs in the 8-10 day range would upset things a bit... CET returns of more than 10*C!
A long way from set in stone of course. I could handle it if we had some decent cold cold conditions either side of it
Met Office Hadley 5.9c. Anomaly 2.3c. Provisional to 12th.
Metcheck 5.63c. Anomaly 1.48c.
Netweather 6.42c. Anomaly 2.23c.
Cheadle Hulme Weather 6.2c. Anomaly 1.3c.
Clevedon Weather 7.7c. Anomaly 1.3c.
Mount Sorrel 5.7c. Anomaly 1.5c.
Peasedown St John 6.6. Anomaly 0.9c.
Met Office Hadley 5.7c. Anomaly 2.2c. Provisional to 13th
Metcheck 5.45c. Anomaly 1.30c.
Netweather 6.24c. Anomaly 2.05c.
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman
I have a jolly good feeling about this.
4.3C here, that's about (+0.9C)
Met Office Hadley 5.5c. Anomaly 2.2c. Provisional to 14th.
Metcheck 5.20c. Anomaly 1.04c.
Netweather 5.99c. Anomaly 1.8c.
Cheadle Hulme Weather 5.8c. Anomaly 0.9c.
Clevedon Weather 7.3c Anomaly 0.9c.
Mount Sorrel 5.3c. Anomaly 1.1c.
Peasedown St John 6.1c. Anomaly 0.4c.
Met office Hadley 5.4c. Anomaly 1.8c. Provisional to 15th.
Metcheck 4.95c. Anomaly 0.80c.
Netweather 5.73c. Anomaly 1.53c.
3.9C (+0.7) now.Since there's only two weeks records so far to affect, it is dropping quite fast.
Expect CET to rise over the coming week.
Met Office Hadley 5.1c. Anomaly 1.6c. Provisional to 16th.
Metcheck 4.71c. Anomaly 0.56c.
Netweather 5.45c. Anomaly 1.26c.
Cheadle Hulme Weather 5.2c Anomaly 0.3c.
Clevedon Weather 7.0c. Anomaly 0.6c.
Mount Sorrel 4.9c. Anomaly 0.7c.
Peasedown St John 5.6c. Anomaly -0.1c.
On the contrary it will continue to fall steadily for the next 5 days
Here are the latest charts. My CET figures are somewhat lower than Hadley's provisional data this month.
CET should bottom out around 4.1C on Thursday before gradually climbing back to 5C or more. Tuesday and Wednesday look especially cold due to low minimums.
Currently estimates suggest the CET will finish around 5.2C. But of course plenty of time for that to change.
Originally Posted by: Global Warming
Hah- I'm glad I changed mine to 5.2. Too early to gloat though.
Correct me if I've worked it out wrong GW but just had a look at the first half of winter CET (45 days) and came up with this as the 15 warmest using Jan provisional figures, quite incredible really.
Met Office Hadley 4.9c. Anomaly 1.4c. Provisional to 17th.
Metcheck 4.57c. Anomaly 0.42c.
Netweather 5.27c. Anomaly 1.08c.