I am back in the UK this week and next, but my Danish colleagues have told me the temperature in Copenhagen fell to -17 yesterday. The cold is lurking, but getting it to our shores is as hard as ever.

that met one looks more like this then 1991 I think..,

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A trough of Low pressure over SW England will weaken and move back SW later. Another trough over Central Scotland will also weaken as it moves slowly South. A High pressure ridge will build across the UK late today and tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from SW England where the level is nearer 4000ft today, falling later. Snowfall is most likely across Central Scotland this morning gradually dying out later.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will move SE across the UK and to the East for a day or two before becoming light and insignificant for a few days from midweek. Then towards the weekend the flow moves East across the UK for a time, albeit relatively weakly before throughout the second week it is shown to be very variable in both strength and location over this side of the Atlantic.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today looks rather different to yesterday with High pressure to the East and SE this week proving reluctant to give way to the fronts moving in from the West at the end of the week. As they move across the UK they weaken with some rain and milder air in tow. Following on pressure builds again, first from the South-east and then the North as fine and eventually quite frosty conditions return to many areas next week. Towards the end of the run the High responsible pulls away SE with stronger SW winds and rain moving across all areas along with milder temperatures.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today also shows a lot more persistence of High pressure to the East and SE through the period this morning with rather cold and dry conditions developing this week giving way briefly with somewhat less cold SSE winds and some rain for a time towards the weekend. then as High pressure to the East builds back it becomes rather cold and mostly dry again next week before things turn milder and more unsettled again late in the run especially over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 55% pack with mild SW winds and rain at times with High pressure to the South. 30% go for a more direct blanket of High pressure covering the UK while 10% show very unsettled and windy weather with deep Low pressure just to the North. An interesting 5% only at this stage go for a High pressure area over Iceland and Low pressure across Iberia and the Met with a strong and cold East flow across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the High pressure area delivering rather cold but dry conditions through the working week. Over Friday and the weekend it weakens and allows some weakening troughs NE across the UK with less cold air and some rain followed by brighter conditions especially across the South and East as High pressure remains quite close to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today still shows a slow and arduous battle across or to the West and SW of the UK between mild Atlantic air and rather cold and dry air across the UK as High pressure builds and moves SE into NW Europe later in the week. Fronts to the West and SW then make some inroads into the UK by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning is largely High pressure based with the centre over the North sea this week maintaining cold and mostly dry weather. Then at the end of the week and weekend the High recedes away SE for a time as a trough brings rain and less cold air for a time. Following on behind is brighter and drier weather again as pressure builds again from the South and SE. the theme next week is then for rather cold and dry weather for many again especially in the South and East as High pressure to the East extends a ridge West across the UK with any milder weather restricted to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains it's similar theme to yesterday towards somewhat miler air making it across the UK by next weekend. In the meantime a lot of rather cold and benign weather looks likely with some frost and fog at night and occasional rain in the SW. Then next weekend a NW/SE split sets up with milder and changeable conditions in SW winds over the NW while the South and East still look mainly dry, perhaps with slight frost at night continuing in light winds but temperatures near average at least by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a slow breakdown of High pressure to the East late this week but it does look like it may only be temporary as after a spell of rain for some pressure rebuilds to the East allowing a continental feed at times across at least the South early next week with milder Atlantic air still trying to push up against a cold block of High pressure to the East late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a pressure pattern which has backed west over the last day or so having Low pressure further West near Southern Greenland and pressure somewhat higher over Northern Europe. To me this suggests that more of a Southerly flow with more of a continental influence to the east and South next week is possible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards a somewhat shorter spell of milder winds late this week with the theme of more influence from High pressure to the East and SE next week growing too. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.7 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.9 pts over GFS's 64.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.8 pts to 47.0 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   While last week saw massive swings between the outputs run to run we have at least this morning some common ground again which leads to there being a greater level of confidence on the general theme of the weather in the coming weeks. As we move further out of course confidence weakens but the trends are very important and I can report that within these trends today there is some interest for those looking for cold weather. In the here and now the weakening rain band in the SW and the trough delivering patchy snow in Scotland will all dissipate within the next 24 hours as the cold air wins back as High pressure slides down from the North across the UK giving most of the UK three days of cold and bright conditions with some night frosts. All output then show this High receding away onto Europe allowing a trough of Low pressure within milder SW winds to engulf the UK on Friday or Saturday. Once  passed it is increasingly shown today that pressure will build again especially across the South and East especially with High pressure building back North and maybe West too into next week. If we can get this second build of pressure to move further North over Europe then the resultant backing winds across the South would likely re-introduce a continental flow to the winds and return lower temperatures again to the South and East of the UK at least. There is plenty of indication within the models this morning that this could happen with  the GFS Operational showing High pressure developing near the North of the UK too in the second week bringing it's own theme of colder weather from that source too. While nothing particularly exciting is shown within the output to suggest snow and ice this morning the previously model runs of mild and windy weather have largely been watered down this morning in preference to perhaps the building blocks to draw something cold from the East quite soon. Let's just hope this morning's small changes are the precursor to further enhancements of this type of solution giving a spell of dry and cold weather again as a trip back to mild and wet conditions that's been hinted at of late is something I'm sure none of us want to see.  

Next Update Tuesday January 19th 2016 from 09:00

You are incorrect about that - in December 2015, there was no cold pool to our east - quite the reverse.

im comparing pressure set up not the cold.. 

He was comparing the pressure set up of 1991 with that of the current met office one. I was simply pointing that the set up on the chart from back in December looked more like that current met office one, especially with regards to the position of that high over Europe. 😊 

That was the day before Storm Desmond struck; let's hope there is no repeat of that or any other recent bad weather anytime soon.

The main HP cell was further north in 1991 than in the current t+144 chart that is true. However, I don't expect a repeat of December 2015, given other major differences between then and now, not least the cold pool to our east

I'm not saying it will either 😊 I just sensed a little cold ramping and took the roll of Devils advocate so to speak. 😉

i thought it was the 5th, but yeah it was definitely a rain maker for those up north. I hope the next bad weather is a raging blizzard across the south of the UK with the heaviest snow over the South Coast 😂 

The 06z isn't looking to warm from 192hs is it.

Frosty, maybe some freezing fog and pressure building over Scandy with some very cold air out east.

Largely dry down here apart from some frontal activity later this week. As you say, that operational would see plenty of frost and fog risks although not a genuine cold spell as we will be relying on surface cooling for much of the time as uppers aren't much to write home about. The hope must be that at some point the cold to our east will be sufficiently heavy to cause an easterly outbreak which would be in line with my thoughts for the winter

I've been waiting, tapping my fingers, for the gradual addition of amplification to cause the threshold to be passed with respect to the movement of one of those Atlantic lows, and at last it has happened.

So we have the next bout of potential to discuss, and as usual the initial signs favour something from the east as opposed to north. Both options look equally viable to me though, given the propensity for lows to dive well south in the Atlantic. The question is whether high pressure to the northwest would be far enough east to benefit the UK. Seasonal changes going into Feb will favour that to be the case, but the period during which GFS has a go is essentially a grey area in which it could go either way IMO.

However this next attempt pans out, it should be more entertaining to follow than the slight chance of a few flakes this afternoon here as the colder air pushes west into the frontal boundary as it nears total occlusion (hence dissipation).

Not that this may be the last chance for a few snow flurries this week - I am seeing signs of a weak disturbance in the flow coming down from the north on Tuesday night in some of the high-res models. This is only likely to achieve anything if the pattern is backed far enough west of course.

It's no big deal I know, but with overnight temps likely to be falling well below freezing across many parts, any precipiation enhances the risk of icy stretches.

Speaking of which, tonight could be seriously slippery on untreated surfaces across the southwest, as the daytime rain  is followed by clearing skies with inland temps potentially hitting -3*C or below. The specifics of this depend on just how dry that cold air is coming in from the west. The answer appears to be 'not very' so I'll be watching out for icy stretches tomorrow morning.

My current trough is delivering, as expected and after a pressure rise from Thursday onwards, I am hoping the 6z Op run is on the mark with another deep trough  GFS has been hinting at this for a while and is quite well supported in the ensembles. As you say, if there is a renewed Scandi trough next week, the HP to the W of Britain will be key in what happened afterwards. A good link to Greenland? A sinker or toppler? My guess, at this time, is for an amplified pattern with bouts of N'ly plunges. Let's hope for no Scandi height rises

Hi Mike

Can you start a Bjorli thread and post some photos please - it may placate some of the snow-starved members on here.

Ta

Mark

Ditto

GFS 12z rolling and out to T+156, i.e. the end of the coming weekend.

Everything has been moved west and we have the surge of WAA up through the British Isles with a consrequent surface high pressure centred over the North Sea

Maybe something maybe nothing.
The features over the continent are placed a lot more west on this run. Seems to have been a little pushback on the temps for this weekend as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

You might need to revise that Rob with GFS 12z placing the block over the UK and only the south and west on Saturday seeing above ave temps.

At 138 I thought for a minute we were going to see a proper scandi high develop above the south moving scandi lows a la 1987 but wasn't to be this time.

Good GFS effort to delay the breakdown - let's see what happens next

Exactly - and in line with the latest hints from the forecasters.

Saturday is the only mild day so far, with maxima just about into double figures in the far south-west - but heading down again by Sunday

By T+192 we have heights building to the north and a suface high of just above 1025 mb just east of Iceland.