Warming continues up above

That is very true Marcus.

Of course, with myself being a Scandi Trough man, I am favouring a potent trough over Scandi with a pressure rise to the W of Britain and hence an initial N'ly. Let's see how things evolve. Interesting times once the milder muck has its day.

Yes the forecast warming is quite marked now - whether it has any impact on our weather and, if it does, when it happens are different issues! 

I was kinda being facetious. But only kinda 😛. The drift of the HP se'wards changes on every run from about +48.

Looks as though the atlantic is sending in reinforcements to make sure the cold air gets swept away this morning.

Met Office fax chart.

That's from yesterday's 12z runs, Steve.

The overnight one looks a little less dramatic with one dissipating warm front and a solitary cold front

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 19TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure building down across the UK will persist over the next few days before gradually moving away to the SE by Thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from the far SW of England where the level is nearer 4000ft today. Snowfall is unlikely today away from the North and East coasts.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will move East across the Atlantic before grinding to a halt near the far west of the UK later this week. It is then steered North with the whole pattern edging East. In the second week a cyclonic flow around the UK occurs before the flow strengthens and simplifies to more of a West to East flow across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today focuses on removing the cold and dry air across the UK by the weekend as a trough of Low pressure brings less cold air, stronger winds and a spell of rain East across the UK. thereafter the main message is a NW/SE split in the weather with occasional rain in the NW where the mildest conditions will be to rather colder but dry conditions in the South and East with benign conditions with frost and fog patches by night. By the end of the run High pressure lies to the SW with a cool NW flow with some showers in the North and East perhaps wintry over the hills there.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is not too dissimilar to the Operational run at least in theme with High pressure to the SE maintaining a NW/SE split in the weather with sometimes rather cold conditions still likely in the East with the mildest conditions in the NW and extreme West where occasional rain is likely. The latter stages of the run shows more pronounced unsettled and windy weather in the NW with gales and rain for a time although effects of this for the South look limited and temporary.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 65% pack with High pressure either to the SW or over the British Isles itself offering fine weather with some overnight frosts and fog. The remaining 35% of members show milder West or SW winds and rain at times in association with Low pressure to the North of Britain.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure receding away to the SE late this week with a SW flow following a trough of Low pressure from Friday delivering milder conditions with rain at times especially towards the North and West out to the start of next week at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows High pressure across the UK in the coming days before a gang of troughs move into the cold block bringing milder and stronger winds and rain to all areas through Friday with SW winds and occasional rain likely thereafter.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows much stronger resistance from High pressure parked across Europe. It's position to the SE after the brief spell of rain for many on Friday influences the South and East of the UK with occasional frosts for most of next week gradually easing North to extend influence to the more changeable NW too by the end of the run as it lies across the UK by then with more widespread frosts and overnight fog patches.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a similar pattern with High pressure to the SE on this run just too far away to prevent the occasional intervention of troughs moving across the UK from the Atlantic in average temperatures and winds from a SW'ly quadrant.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown on Friday with a spell of rain for all ushering in milder Atlantic SW'lies. Thereafter and through the remainder of the run mild SW winds largely persist with just brief bright and dry interludes perhaps with patchy frost in the South and rain at times for all most frequent and heavy in the North and West. Southern Britain is then shown to become dry and settled at the end of the period as a large High pressure area inches North into Southern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the same distribution of High and Low pressure areas over and around Britain that it has over recent days and though there is wriggle room for more influence of High pressure to the SE most members maintain SW winds and mild and changeable conditions most likely in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have trended back again today to milder SW winds with rain at times across all areas for much of next week with rather less influence from High pressure to the East and SE than was shown yesterday.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.3 pts over GFS's 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.1 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We have another couple of days of the current cold spell to go before the Atlantic reclaims the air across the British Isles and brings a return to rain at times and milder temperatures too. At the moment we have High pressure building across the UK before it recedes away to the SE late in the week taking the cold and frosty conditions across the UK currently with it. Cloud and wind then increases from the SW later on Thursday with rain following. This extends East through all areas Friday followed on by brighter fresher weather for the weekend with nearer to average temperatures. For the rest of the period this morning all output show the only differences as being how much influence High pressure to the SE of the UK has on the East and South of the UK and the output today suggests the answer to that is rather less than was shown yesterday. This means that the incidence of occasional rain in the South as well is likely next week and temperatures should maintain largely average levels at least next week. However, being the High to the SE is only at arms length away there is still a chance of that is could reassert some influence across the South and East longer term with the return of frost and fog patches. What isn't show this morning is much in the way of a slip into wintry weather again with the Jet Stream and pressure patterns over and around the UK not conducive for this to develop. So it looks like February at least before we will see our next shot at Winter if this morning's output is to be believed.

Next Update Tuesday January 19th 2016 from 09:00

I think there is a lot of excitement about an SSW. TBH should it happen it will probably be the least sudden one in recorded history. 

Major wave 1 activity fcst now by end of Jan, strat vortex is going to be really 'feeling the pressure'. SSW poss

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

We may have not long to wait though it can take a few weeks for its effects to be felt.

I have to admit I haven't a clue about these and whether they really work for us 

It did in 2013 IIRC, Marcus.

Indeed - they talk of colder air into the South and south east? - Hmm...what with temperatures of 13 or +14c by end of next week? - Do you think this is an outlier?

The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the NH for the duration of winter.  The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents.  With the models predicting the PV to move into northern Eurasia we are most confident of the cold close in proximity with the position of the PV.  More uncertainty exists across North America as the flow around the PV continues to shift from westerly (warm) to northerly (cold) and now easterly.

From Mr Cohen , worth seeing how accurate this is

GFS 6z really pushing out the mild boat for early next week. I'm sure that many of us would agree that if it has got to be mild let's get it really mild and more importantly bright and dry too. 

Once we get into February it might feel spring-like down here.

After all, we've had our 3 day winter for this year

Well, even taking that chart at face value, you can see that it would not take much for the Euro HP to link up with the Scandi-Siberian HP and get pulled north.

As it seems to have become the primary straw for many in the last few days, a few thoughts of my own concerning SSWs:

1) They are modelled, like any other parameter, and so should be treated with the same levels of confidence or not as any chart
2) We seem to have been anticipating a SSW for weeks, and it keeps being put back
3) The mechanism by which warming propagates down into the lower levels is not very well understood, neither is the effect on the formation and position of blocking high pressure that may or may not result from this process
4) If a SSW should occur, and if it propagates down, and if it causes an HLB in the right place, such a process given the current literature may not occur for several weeks after said SWW
5) To summarise, if it's a SWW that people are looking for to deliver a cold spell, then don't expect any results until mid-Feb

Just an opnion of course.

too right Steve, a 15 or 16c could be possible in favoured spots? 

If correct we could see 16C (61F) locally!