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Russwirral
17 January 2016 21:35:48

Personally - unless we get a couple of very hard frosts - i cant see freezing rain on the cards.


It hasnt really been THAT cold recently. i mean - yes it is very cold. 0-2*C isnt tropical. But its too marginal for the rain to raise the temperature of.  The ground around these parts - although is cold, is too warm.  Infact its still damp outside now, despite a temp of 1*c


 


Saying that - I have seen freezing rain today in Wales. There was snow on the floor- a good 6" of it. But there was light rain in the air. Meaning everything looke like:


 



 


Infact the roads looked like they had glass on them from where it had fallen from the trees.


 


HOWEVER... this was at around 400m ASL it was 0 to -1*c today.  This is not uncommon in that part of the world.


 


Back home or in normal lowland britain it was 1.2*c for the majority of the day - and very damp.  We had a slight frost the other day prior to the warm front running down the irish sea.  It stayed at 1.2C all day - and it didnt freeze.


 


I cant see these conditions changing between now and the end of the cold spell.  Cold - but not cold enough.


White Meadows
17 January 2016 21:36:38

My thoughts exactly Russ.


It seems withdrawal from a cold spell that didn't live up to its name has somewhat quashed the mood in here.
A good time to sit out the south westerly muck until it turns interesting again.

Bertwhistle
17 January 2016 21:39:10

It seems withdrawal from a cold spell that didn't live up to its name has somewhat quashed the mood in here.
A good time to sit out the south westerly muck until it turns interesting again.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Aristotlean advice.



Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Chunky Pea
17 January 2016 21:41:17


Also I'd point out that the true holy grail of precipitation in the UK is ice. I've seen Freezing rain but I've never seen ice before in the UK (I've been in an ice storm once in Iceland when a warm front came over). To get ice the snow should be almost melted but not quite, so when it passes through the cold layer it can re-nucleate. To get ice we would need, I recon, 850hpa temperatures to be no less than about +0.5C and no more than +1.5C and the 950hpa temperature should be subzero. I think this is possible.  


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We had freezing rain (courtesy of frequent showers) all last week here. But I do recall a significant, nationwide event here in Ireland back in late December 2009 when a warm front came over a frozen land. Everything turned to ice. You literally could not walk out the door without going heels over head. Dangerous weather.


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
squish
17 January 2016 21:41:59
The evidence is slowing building for a scandal high scenario.

Here is the Indian model 00z
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwf/runs/2016011700/ncmrwfnh-0-240.png?00 

JMA was not far off either

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016011712/JN192-21.GIF?17-12 

and neither were the GEM and ECM (and 06z GFS parallel)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
17 January 2016 21:59:55

18z stalls the inevitable a bit longer (still cold Thursday). Perhaps the mild breakdown will be squeezed out, just as our cold spells usually are!


D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
17 January 2016 22:07:50
Cold(er) airmass clings on until pub opening time on Friday....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.gif 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
soperman
17 January 2016 22:16:06


My thoughts exactly Russ.


It seems withdrawal from a cold spell that didn't live up to its name has somewhat quashed the mood in here.
A good time to sit out the south westerly muck until it turns interesting again.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


amongst the muck there could be some very pleasant spring like weather too.


cold very much retreating eastwards

Karl Guille
17 January 2016 22:18:56

GFS at T156 has low pressure pushing south eastwards across the Atlantic towards Spain / Azores which was the precursor to pressure rising over Scandanvia on the 12z JMA and ECM! 👍


Edit: Not this time but markedly different to the 12z at this stage and a potential step in the right direction. Let's see what the ensembles think!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
squish
17 January 2016 22:21:12
Most of Europe remains sub zero into Sunday. Non too warm for the east here...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
GIBBY
17 January 2016 22:30:37

Just a quick one on Freezing Rain

I thought this was rain falling through a layer of cold air near the surface and freezing, falling as what appears to be tiny hailstones

or is it when rain falls on frozen ground and freezes instantly- used be called shot ice I think.

Both cases I have experienced, here in Brampton the freezing on impact scenario was dangerous to say the least and lasted for several hours.

Originally Posted by: Cumbrian Snowman 


True freezing rain occurs when a warmer inversion aloft melts snow allowing it to fall to the ground as rain despite surface temperatures, including the air is at or below freezing. This is what happened here back in the 90's. Temperatures were below freezing all day with incessant rain with solid ice build up on all surfaces. Very nasty stuff and I hope we avoid it.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Gooner
17 January 2016 22:33:45

Most of Europe remains sub zero into Sunday. Non too warm for the east here...

Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif


Its dragging its heels thats for sure


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
17 January 2016 22:39:28
JMA 12z now showing out to T264 and it is the real deal!!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
17 January 2016 22:43:15


And still no real mild weather to shout about, its a long run of chilly temps if the 18z is verified


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 January 2016 22:44:43

JMA 12z now showing out to T264 and it is the real deal!!

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



Isnt it just


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


squish
17 January 2016 23:09:30
JMA goes that way!! Here is the 12z extended JMA (+264)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016011712/JN264-21.GIF?17-12 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
nsrobins
18 January 2016 00:16:15
Just as I promised myself a break from this madness, may I offer #16 from the GEFS 18z set as the most insane run of the season so far.
Near -20 850s into the south 😎

Perhaps this winter has some legs in it after all lol
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Zubzero
18 January 2016 01:16:22

Just as I promised myself a break from this madness, may I offer #16 from the GEFS 18z set as the most insane run of the season so far.
Near -20 850s into the south 😎

Perhaps this winter has some legs in it after all lol

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



 


 

Karl Guille
18 January 2016 05:50:49

Colder conditions hang on until Fri / Sat on the GFS 0z and there are a whole host of options in the medium term but no clear indication of an easterly on the ensembles. GEM keeps an easterly theme of sorts going as we head towards the end of the month and its partner in crime the JMA has as I write yet to reveal its hand!

Meanwhile it's absolutely chucking it down outside (rain) with a temperature of + 4.2!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2016 07:10:26

Easterly in coming day 10? Growing theme hopefully for a frigid February. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
18 January 2016 07:47:09


Easterly in coming day 10? Growing theme hopefully for a frigid February. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


certainly some of the output is blocked- an FI trend?

Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2016 07:56:57


 


certainly some of the output is blocked- an FI trend?


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


GEM being a case in point. Nearly a stunning chart by day 10


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Shropshire
18 January 2016 08:03:43

Lots of potential in the NWP this morning to suggest that any Atlantic controlled period may be rather shortlived.


 


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
soperman
18 January 2016 08:16:33


Lots of potential in the NWP this morning to suggest that any Atlantic controlled period may be rather shortlived.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Except the jet at 264 shaped like a hammerhead shark is ready to smash anything ahead of it bringing warmer climes with it! 

Rob K
18 January 2016 08:34:03
Just as you think you can stop watching the models for a few days some Scandi highs start appearing. Good continuity on the ECM with yesterday's 12Z too.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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