Yes hopefully there will be more hope for cold! The models will have to have a big change around for this to happen and time is now ticking away for this winter. I am not just looking for cold though; some interesting weather would also be welcome! Bland areas of high pressure hanging around the South for long periods of time is rather disappointing although it does at least give some relief for flooded areas.

There's still six weeks to go of the meteorogical winter, so I'm not sure I agree that time is now ticking. I'd be more inclined to agree with you there if we were already into February and the charts weren't looking overly hopeful for those looking for cold.

The model output since Christmas has, generally speaking, been of considerably more interest at times to the cold loving fraternity that it was for weeks on end prior to Xmas. If there is one thing that the swings in the models over the past couple of weeks have shown us, it is that nothing should be ruled in or out, IMHO.

Huge pool of cold to our East

there doesn't appear to be enough clarity on the vortex situation ATM

After Christmas there were signs of a dead vortex into mid Jan but that didn't materialise. 

Matty didn't like fans of SSW theory, not sure why. I think he lost an argument or two on the subject and consequently banned anyone who questioned the matter.

Matty NEVER lost an argument

I have to admit, GFS and ECM have been toying around with the idea of HLB relocating to our Northeast but what we await to spark the next round of model mania is an operational run that brings the beast in.

Many years of weather watching tells me such a run may be imminent. In the meantime the idea of a full on SW flow is receding with each run.

Where is Matty these days?

Is this a typical example of a Bartlett?

Maybe schaffs has already seen it. Interesting times.

A bit of warming still being picked up

He was saying it is only a possibility at the moment though ..................good to see all the same

Control is in search of the cold

Please could you send me the link to this control chart please? Thanks.

Tally, go into the main Meteociel page and select GEFS ENS 

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

The control run is the first set shown and you can select all 20 members individually.

MILD is the key word this morning.

UKMO T120:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

UKMO T144:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

I thought of a slightly different word when I saw the runs this morning! 

Looks like we've missed the chance on a quick return to cold,so will have to wait it out for the next round of WAA.

And what's to say this isn't another case of models flip - flopping,  like so often recently? 

Indeed. Yesterday or indeed tomorrow morning's op runs are equally as likely to be correct and based on the last few days likely to be different. Saying that of course this morning could have nailed the final outcome for the next week...

Ler's not forget what preceded the current cold spell ( it's -3c at work as I write) which was one of, if not THE mildest ever starts to winter.  Perhaps the atmosphere requires one final fling of long fetch moisture laden (!!) southwesterlies before a determined switch occurs whereby HLB has a propensity to flourish and persist, a switch much touted in LRFs revolving around the mild start - cold end to winter? Perhaps we need to wait another fortnight?

I think the SW flow is odds on IMO. The Norwegian Met certainly think this is the case too.

That said, I do think it will be a brief mild spell. I still think the next cold will stem from the N rather than the E... at least initially.

Edit: Agree with all of the above comments... except Justin's  I do not believe FI is T+48 atm. The ensembles and output in general has (IMO) been fairly solid in bringing a warm up from the weekend.

I know someone will point out that 850s aren't the be all and end all, high pressure etc. BUT the chance of an early taste of spring in the south next week can't be totally discounted.

Steady Brian.... you'll have the BBQ out soon

Of course, we all know that surface temperatures will be lower but as the air mixes up with the TM air, temperatures will hike up quickly. I have been mystified if I am honest because of the reluctance from some of the forecasters in asserting that milder and less settled conditions are on the way. Unless I am missing something, it has seemed pretty clear to me. That applies to yesterday too. GEFS, UKMO and ECM have been showing this for a couple of days. Longer term, I do think a cold period will follow. In fact, the SW flow as per this morning's run, in my experience, often lead to a cold plunge from the N a little down the road and combined with a likely weakening/split in the vortex, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Greenland High by the end of the month. Just my take on things.

I wouldn't discount winds from the East either Brian , several of the ENS drop away after the 26th