Cant remember the name but a scientist in the past has statistically proved that the coldest winter weather in the UK is in February

 

I am remember reading this a while back - and hopefully next month will follow suit

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I wonder whether you might be thinking of Alexander Buchan, a Scottish scientist? In 1867, he came up a theory of what became known as Buchan Spells. He proposed that there were certain fixed periods during the year which were anomalously warm or cold. One of these Buchan Spells was from the 7th to 14th of February. There were 6 other cold spells during the year also, but only three warm spells AFAIK. He claimed that his theory was backed up by statistical analysis but I think that it has long since been discredited.

While January is the coldest month for most, I think that February is statistically the coldest month in some more western parts of Britain and also much of Ireland due to the fact that the sea is at it's coldest at that time of year.

 

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Spot on - thats definitely the name I was thinking of

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I think there is also a saying that says 'as the days lengthen the cold strengthens'

Candlemas folklore which is 2nd Feb says 'if candlemas be dry and bright winter is back with another fright' - but like St Swithins day in July I think there is no stats to back this up

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<----- Collapse onto computer chart in shock. Sriram ACTUALLY replied in his own thread!

Being serious now, I tend to think of the last week of January (around 25th) as being the depth of winter, but that's a personal thing. Then from there on, the sun slowly and surely start to be that little bit more effective with the solar heating thing.

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Think it's,as the days get longer the cold grows stronger.

I believe we only have about 8 weeks of true winter. From mid Dec to around 10th Feb. Usually, we can rely on double digit (and mins this season!) until mid Dec, and I've always thought there is a perceptible change come around about 10th Feb. This is due to the level of light, and solar height. It just feels like spring from around mid Feb onwards, regardless of most temperatures. Certainly here in the South West, anyhow! Maybe not in Aberdeen...

It's interesting, this idea of proving something with statistics alone. Many years (several in the 40s, esp.1949; 2003, 2007, 2011- some of the warmest  Aprils) have a warm spell around 14th-18th, that is often not topped. Now, logically, you'd say the end of the month would be warmer than the mid; but statistics say otherwise in terms of warmest weather modally (ie not the mean & all that might mean) just as an analogy to your winter example of the coldest weather.

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Statistically 14th January is the coldest day of the year, it certainly was in 1987!

I also have a lot of time for the Buchan Spells, the February cold spell is particularly notable IMO and that's where I would look for our next cold spell.

Andy

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Is it something to do with shifting pressure patterns, that throw out anomalous data regularly(& therefore by definition are not anomalies really)?

Thinking of all time temperature highs, including the now-disregarded 1868 Tonbridge event, tops seems to be last third July- first third August.

So Jan 21-Feb 11 might be a good date range. Mid-range is then Jan 31/ Feb 1. Then we have to ask is the mean to be based on all means, mean of coldest monthly, mean of n number of coldest. Hard to know what is the most representative as it can be defined in so any ways.

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