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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2016 19:20:07

Having looked at the WRF the synoptics are the best they have been in years for an ice event, wind direction changes as a function of height are not unusual, but later this week we may hit the sweat spot; a frigid south easterly at the surface and a warm south westerly above it. This is a recipe for some potentially very rare and severe weather which includes the possibility of ice (american sleet) and freezing rain.  Even earlier on in the week we have some good potential with milder air lurking in the west moving over freezing air in the east.


Post any observations of icing or otherwise unusual precipitation here. Of course with such cold surface temperatures it wouldn't take much to turn ice to snow if the warm air makes it slightly less far than predicted. Please note, the 850hpa -6C benchmark is now entirely uselessuse other proxies and preferably skew ts to ascertain precipitation type. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballamar
20 January 2016 11:21:19
Time for a bump
Saint Snow
20 January 2016 11:27:13

Quantum, which regions do you anticipate would be most at risk of seeing this phenomenon?


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Essan
20 January 2016 11:38:23

I did notice a few tiny flakes of ice precipitating out of the fog this morning ..... 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Saint Snow
20 January 2016 11:58:35


I did notice a few tiny flakes of ice precipitating out of the fog this morning ..... 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


 


I think the effect looks best at night - I saw it a few times in Dec 10, most clearly under the glare of a security light.


There was one occasion (Kev B knows the date) when a large area west of Manchester experienced a thick covering from a fall of something similar



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Norseman
20 January 2016 12:58:31

We had an ice glaze over all surfaces on Monday morning. Temperature was 0.0C to 0.1C and light rain was falling.

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