Good things come to those whom are patient.

At least that's what my folks always told me when I was a kid!

Very wet on the 12z GFS, back to flooding soon at this rate.

I agree totally with this. Living in a part of the world where true easterlies are vital for some intense dryness and breathtaking cold in winter and intense warmth and proper deep blue sky sunshine (none of the pale, bleached blue/white watered down maritime dung ) in summer, I know my easterlies and have become obsessively fussy about them. I would class the last true winter easterly here being that which occurred in early Jan '08, when a brief incursion of continental winds extended as far as Ireland courtesy of proper continental high centered over Finland/east Russia. Unfortunately, it didn't stick around for no more than a couple of days but I remember the marked difference in 'feel' and look to the weather while it was around. Low humidity, violet blue skies and an invigorating cold. Only got down to - 7.0c here locally at its lowest point but considering that this occurred despite a good stiff wind, it was impressive.  There was a brief snowy breakdown once the Atlantic pushed (all too soon) back in. 

(surface analysis from January 3rd, 2008, C/O DWD)

IMO, I would not class any spell which occurred during the winter of 09/10 for example as being of the true easterly type. Plenty of polar/arctic maritime air 'returning' as easterlies at times but never at any stage what I would class as true continental ones. I also think the points that Brian Gaze and others have brought up about the deindustiralsation of the eastern block region and the lowering frequency of proper continental influences on this side of the world are very interesting.

We won't get a repeat of December because it is projected we will be north of the jet. Once we get past the initial burst of SWerlies this sort of thing becomes quite common.

Generally a much drier and colder pattern than december, if a pattern that none of us truly want. Although word on the street is that the mountain trolls  are returning and the people on the other place seem pretty sure its going to herald a cold february. 

Well with the jet looking like it may  possibly settle again to our South.....it will then be all too play for within a couple of weeks

Maybe not. Lazy Wind has already posted a few GFS charts which don't look like December. 

I mean, December to me was characterized by air drawn from the tropics, while even as soon as 156 hrs GFS is showing a high in the Atlantic to cut that off that sort of thing. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0

Single-digit maxes everywhere from that westerly imo.

Perturbation 7

This isn't entirely frivolous; if things like this exist on the ensembles then they can come off. Look at the difference between the E7 chart and the OP at 72 hours:

A slightly more northerly slant on the jet has a big impact down the line. And this difference is nothing compared to what we could get at 72 hours. Have patience; great charts more often than not suddenly appear at the 168hr to 192hr without warning. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_210_mslp850.png?cb=812

Look at the serious cold getting right down the E US coast, into Carolina, Georgia, not quite making it to Florida.

TBH that comparison is a reflection of the reduced scatter at a short time frame, despite the coincidental shape of the Euro. Love the top chart, however; who wouldn't?

Now that's an easterly blast worthy of the pre 1997 days! -12C or lower at 850 across the majority of the UK, -18C 850s clipping Kent, a sharply-defined upper cold pool to add instability and a continental feed for a few days. There would be no worries about marginality there, it'd just be a case of how much snow falls.

This sort of thing has been shown several times this winter but thus far hasn't had more than a 10% or so chance of coming off. Nonetheless it's nice to see and as you say is a possibility - just a very low one at present.

Look at this!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=544

Interestingly, pert 7 mimics the operational (look at the rectilinear graph trough) shape; and the control, with a bot of a lag.

An incredible chart from the ECM at day 9.  Look at the depth of the cold blasting east of Canada, even -8 uppers make it to Scotland. 

Brrr  and ** for the Highlands, meanwhile Tm air tries nosing into the far SW.

Certainly some heavy snowfalls for the hills in the N and especially in Scotland - if that were to verify.

ECM 12z or the "Twilight Zonal"

I question how stable this pattern is, all it would take is a stray warm sector and then all that really warm air would get pushed northwards and the amplification it could cause would be pretty impressive. 

The dominant GEFS cluster at 372 hours is a north Atlantic ridge.

Quick look at the state of the tropospheric polar vortex; I know the stratospheric one has received alot of attention. However ultimately even though the S may be easier to predict for a longer range; its the T which affects us.

So we start here:

We start with a rather small polar vortex centred over the Baffin bay and Canadian archipelago; actually its most favored spot. While fairly disjointed with lobes extending into the lower latitudes it is stronger than of late.

Significant weakening by 144 hours, the polar voertex is completely split with one bit in the hudson (unusually far south) and the other bit in southern siberia; I'm actually having difficulty telling which one is the primary vortex here.

A truly bizare picture by 192 hours. There are still two polar vortexes, one in the southern Baffin and the other of the eastern coast of Russia. The arctic itself has a clockwise circulation. And although the UK is under the rule of zonality; this is not due to a strong polar vortex but due to its unusual position on the other side of the Atlantic. Here we combine a -ve AO and a +ve NAO which is a pattern which has become all too common in previous years. Very unfortunate.

The polar vortex is still split but has strengthened somewhat, the proximity of the polar vortex in southern Greenland is doing us no favours. 

GFS12z 10hPa charts were interesting:

My memory is the last two winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) have not been at all cold, especially in the south. UK mean temp anomalies for the last 3 winters in the met office climate summaries referred to are:

2014/15..........+0.2c

2013/14....... +1.5c

2012/13........-0.4c

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016012112/graphe6_1000_282_93___.gif

Here we go again 

Indeed the last 2 winters have been absolute crap!

Kinda reminds me of the period during the 80's when, as a young lad, it felt like someone had turned the snow tap off. 87/88 then 88/89 although sypnotically not the same, the struggle to obtain proper cold weather is there. Had to wait until 91 to get anything decent again.

Copied over from NW as I know Ian has a resurgent interest in all things stratospheric, and I know Jive Buddy is a long-time admirer.

  The last sentence makes a practical lrf  for February based on  the detail that goes before it.

Tamara    12,604

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The final whites of the eyes of the resurgent vortex are now fully in focus of NWP modelling, ahead of eventual programmed momentum transport from Greenland to Siberia after this inauspicious end period of January to start of February timeframe.

Indian Ocean tropical signal is creating another 'noise response', such as it did in December ,over the well fused together ocean/atmosphere Nino base state. The reduced tendency in atmospheric angular momentum from the heady values of recently is temporarily scrubbing some of the massive surfeit of westerly wind anomalies across the Pacific and creating a very pseudo and transient Nina-like synoptic response.

Despite total budget AAM remaining high

Only a very minor subtle shift of jet energy northwards across the US, but magnified greater by the interim strong vortex across Greenland to provide the very uninspiring flat westerly pattern downstream across the Atlantic of the next 10 days or so.  

As amplification starts to occur upstream in the Pacific, the net longwave tendency downstream is to retract the heights to our south and over Europe westwards into the Atlantic, and, with recent negative tendency in frictional torques as a manifestation of suppression of  relative AAM tendency, this has the effect of beefing up the Azores High.

This process is now well advertised in the 8 to 10 day modelling period.

Frictional torques have now bottomed out, and starting to trend up in recognition of the continuing low frequency Nino signal in the Pacific. This sets the floor limit for relative angular momentum before rising once again

At the same time, the MJO is set to continue its eastwards movement through the Maritimes and then onwards to the Pacific during the course of the first half of February

.

We should be mindful that modelling of this activity beyond a few days will be unreliable, and likely in that respect that progress will be underestimated. This is especially as MJO related activity is usually increasingly active approaching the later winter and then early Spring periods. With displacement and considerable perturbment likely of the stratospheric vortex during the very first part of February, and another round of soaring angular momentum as the MJO arrives at Phases 5 and 6, with the tropical signal increasingly gaining amplitude, then increasing eastward and northward progress of poleward rossby wave activity arrives in the Atlantic as the signal engages the Pacific as it did during this month and associated cold spell.

Nino Region 1.2 (eastern region) continues to cool and assist the evolvement of a traditional later winter Nino cold pattern. With the vortex paying a price for its unwelcome re-staged party gate-crash of our winter, the scene is set for an increasingly amplified Atlantic profile leading to greater and greater blocking potential particularly later in the month. Both the long-wave pattern and Nino forcing look much better accorded to stronger and more defined heights over the NE Atlantic, southern Greenland and Iceland as the month progresses. Better than those seen this month, and with a stronger and more east based NAO profile

It looks good for steadily increasing polar vectors through NW, N and NE through the progress of the month - beginning with polar maritime incursions in the earliest part of the month and becoming progressively colder from there

i left a link go read it please... I'm going to sit here and argue the toss with people who are only comparing it to their back garden... as I was responding originally to the statement that it was the coldest spell in 3 years not the bleeding winter!! 

But for those who can't be bothered to go and read...

last January CET was 0.1C above average last February was -0.1C below average. 😁