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Gooner
23 January 2016 10:51:19


 


 


There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


No


Ian you wouldn't have posted that 3, 4 or 5 years ago when we were in a run of winters that produced decent snow events .......

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
23 January 2016 10:51:32


 


 


There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


In one word: No!


And don't start wittering on about the "modern winter" again!


 

New world order coming.
Shropshire
23 January 2016 10:57:08


 


No


Ian you wouldn't have posted that 3, 4 or 5 years ago when we were in a run of winters that produced decent snow events .......


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


What I am saying is every year is improvement on the last in terms of modelling and knowledge; if events don't turn out how teleconnections suggest they should, then we need to look at why that may be the case. As I've said before, this period from the late eighties onwards has often defied conventional wisdom.


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Bertwhistle
23 January 2016 10:57:47


 


Can you post charts for mid Feb and March to back that up....................how can you make a comment like that ?


They see a lot more info than we do , the signs must still be there ?



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Absolutely agree. This morning's output focuses on a different timescale to the one Matt alluded to, with the very comprehensive range of signs that he considered; and it's the coincidence of those signs that matters.


We shouldn't forget that the models combined threatened a continuation of December's dross in the New Year; what followed wasn't a perfect cold spell, as another thread on here has made clear; but nor was it expected by the outputs.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Shropshire
23 January 2016 10:58:13


 


No


Ian you wouldn't have posted that 3, 4 or 5 years ago when we were in a run of winters that produced decent snow events .......


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Did much of that have to do with solar activity ? I think it did.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Justin W
23 January 2016 11:05:33
I think there has been a significant change in weather patterns at mid latitudes in the last three decades. The absence of high level blocking to our north east in mid winter is, for me, the clearest indicator that something is different.
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Maunder Minimum
23 January 2016 11:07:08
Try the "modern winter" rubbish on the east coast Americans this morning!
New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
23 January 2016 11:08:55


 


 


There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Brian Gaze
23 January 2016 11:09:28


 


In one word: No!


And don't start wittering on about the "modern winter" again!


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


To be fair I think Paul Bartlett first mooted the possibility of a change (or arguably 'reinforcement' as Kevin Bradshaw may consider it) in the global circulation in the late 1990s. The 'Bartlett' high wasn't a new phenomenon but the increasing incidence of it was. I posted a chart in early winter (can't find unfortunately) which showed that since the 1950s there has been an increase in + height anomalies over Europe and an increase in - height anomalies to the north west of the UK. Depending on our beliefs we may choose to think this is either part of a natural cycle or a consequence of AGW. Either way, we should not be denying the possibility that something has changed. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
23 January 2016 11:14:34


 


To be fair I think Paul Bartlett first mooted the possibility of a change (or arguably 'reinforcement' as Kevin Bradshaw may consider it) in the global circulation in the late 1990s. The 'Bartlett' high wasn't a new phenomenon but the increasing incidence of it was. I posted a chart in early winter (can't find unfortunately) which showed that since the 1950s there has been an increase in + height anomalies over Europe and an increase in - height anomalies to the north west of the UK. Depending on our beliefs we may choose to think this is either part of a natural cycle or a consequence of AGW. Either way, we should not be denying the possibility that something has changed. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed Brian there has been a change in circulation patterns but these are fickle beast as 2009/10 and December 2010 showed. It could easily flip into a period of much cooler extremes with the declining solar output and the next flip in the AMO.

Maunder Minimum
23 January 2016 11:17:11


 


To be fair I think Paul Bartlett first mooted the possibility of a change (or arguably 'reinforcement' as Kevin Bradshaw may consider it) in the global circulation in the late 1990s. The 'Bartlett' high wasn't a new phenomenon but the increasing incidence of it was. I posted a chart in early winter (can't find unfortunately) which showed that since the 1950s there has been an increase in + height anomalies over Europe and an increase in - height anomalies to the north west of the UK. Depending on our beliefs we may choose to think this is either part of a natural cycle or a consequence of AGW. Either way, we should not be denying the possibility that something has changed. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The problem is that it is impossible to aver that the regional climate has changed on the basis of a few decades - these things are measured in centuries. Go back to the 1920s and you may find a similar patternb, because our weather is infinitely variable. We have had snow droughts in earlier decades - the 1970s were not particularly notable for good winters, although the 1960s and early 1980s were. I am pretty sure we will get another decent winter before long, but whether that is in 2016-17 or 2017-18 or later, I shall leave up to the weather.


Yes, it is deeply frustrating, but that is the way it is. In 50 years, they will be able to look back and say more clearly whether there was a genuine pattern change in the current period or not.

New world order coming.
LeedsLad123
23 January 2016 11:21:26


 


 


There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


I think our winters are the same as they always have been - mild and largely snowless, typical of an island facing a large ocean on the western side of a continent at the mercy of the prevailing westerly wind which is largely to blame for our anomalously mild climate relative to latitude. The frequency of cold winters has clearly decreased, as it has almost everywhere in the world as the result of a general warming trend over the past 3+ decades (which is more pronounced in high latitudes than in mid-latitudes), but that's about it.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
23 January 2016 11:22:23


 


 


What I am saying is every year is improvement on the last in terms of modelling and knowledge; if events don't turn out how teleconnections suggest they should, then we need to look at why that may be the case. As I've said before, this period from the late eighties onwards has often defied conventional wisdom.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


to be honest that's a very fair point. Computer power and our meteorological understanding has increased no end over the last decade, unless there is a mystery overseeing all encompassing "other factor" that we are missing then you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see what facts are staring you in the face. There have been marked changes no doubt, possibly due to natural variation or other factors.

Scandy 1050 MB
23 January 2016 11:23:24


Indeed Brian there has been a change in circulation patterns but these are fickle beast as 2009/10 and December 2010 showed. It could easily flip into a period go much cooler extremes with the declining solar output and the next flip in the AMO.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


There is also the possibility that due to the eastern bloc collapsing at the end of the 80s that industrial pollution has decreased rapidly thus with cleaner air there is less sunlight reflected and less cooling going on at the surface, is it a coincidence that after 1989 easterly blasts became rarer compared to before?  I think Retron mentioned this the other day - a very complex topic and hard to prove one way or the other. Whether February will deliver cold or not is anyone's guess - if it doesn't let's have a February 1998 which for some places would be better than the whole Summer last year was .  I suspect chances of a February 1998 may be higher than a February 1991 looking at today's output and given that was also a strong El Nino year as well. On the cold chance side of things, at least GFS has stopped moving the strat warming back now and a minor one still due in the nearer time frame.  Poor output today though again it has to be said for cold weather fans.


 

Shropshire
23 January 2016 11:33:48

Try the "modern winter" rubbish on the east coast Americans this morning!

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


One of the changes, arguably the biggest one is +ve NAO in the winter months, the Amercans are not dependent on that.


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Solar Cycles
23 January 2016 11:36:39


 


There is also the possibility that due to the eastern bloc collapsing at the end of the 80s that industrial pollution has decreased rapidly thus with cleaner air there is less sunlight reflected and less cooling going on at the surface, is it a coincidence that after 1989 easterly blasts became rarer compared to before?  I think Retron mentioned this the other day - a very complex topic and hard to prove one way or the other. Whether February will deliver cold or not is anyone's guess - if it doesn't let's have a February 1998 which for some places would be better than the whole Summer last year was .  I suspect chances of a February 1998 may be higher than a February 1991 looking at today's output and given that was also a strong El Nino year as well. On the cold chance side of things, at least GFS has stopped moving the strat warming back now and a minor one still due in the nearer time frame.  Poor output today though again it has to be said for cold weather fans.


 


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

Lol I suspect a Feb 98 looks a more realistic option than anything colder at the moment, hopefully we'll see some changes in the output soon but to be honest once we reach mid February and beyond I ain't interested in cold and snow due to the Suns strength and lacklustre attempts at snow over for lowland England & Wales.

SJV
23 January 2016 11:39:08


 


 


One of the changes, arguably the biggest one is +ve NAO in the winter months, the Amercans are not dependent on that.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Doesn't matter for us anyway, James Madden says the snow in the NE is heading our way 

John p
23 January 2016 11:44:46

I think there has been a significant change in weather patterns at mid latitudes in the last three decades. The absence of high level blocking to our north east in mid winter is, for me, the clearest indicator that something is different.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


We have had high level blocking to the NE (Kara Sea)  for weeks this winter. 

Camberley, Surrey
Scandy 1050 MB
23 January 2016 11:45:20


Lol I suspect a Feb 98 looks a more realistic option than anything colder at the moment, hopefully we'll see some changes in the output soon but to be honest once we reach mid February and beyond I ain't interested in cold and snow due to the Suns strength and lacklustre attempts at snow over for lowland England & Wales.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Yes even in March 2013 we had lying snow in the evening and morning but come lunchtime that sun was strong as hell and melted anything not in the shade - as you say mid Feb is the tipping point for us down here. If we can't have cold let's at least have a Feb 98 with no further cloudy mild muck days like tomorrow is going to be, waste of a Winter's day.  Latest GFS run has something of a hint of something in 324 hours time (JFF - that's how bad the output is!):


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=0


And really JFF just look what the CFS is showing for early March..you couldn't make it up:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1002&mode=0&carte=0&run=0


 


 


 


 

Gooner
23 January 2016 12:18:14


 


 


Did much of that have to do with solar activity ? I think it did.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


That is wriiten where?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
23 January 2016 12:19:20

Try the "modern winter" rubbish on the east coast Americans this morning!

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


This is the point unless its justaimed at the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
23 January 2016 12:24:45


 


Yes even in March 2013 we had lying snow in the evening and morning but come lunchtime that sun was strong as hell and melted anything not in the shade - as you say mid Feb is the tipping point for us down here. If we can't have cold let's at least have a Feb 98 with no further cloudy mild muck days like tomorrow is going to be, waste of a Winter's day.  Latest GFS run has something of a hint of something in 324 hours time (JFF - that's how bad the output is!):


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=0


And really JFF just look what the CFS is showing for early March..you couldn't make it up:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1002&mode=0&carte=0&run=0


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 



That wouldnt bother me

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Andy Woodcock
23 January 2016 12:51:22


Lol I suspect a Feb 98 looks a more realistic option than anything colder at the moment, hopefully we'll see some changes in the output soon but to be honest once we reach mid February and beyond I ain't interested in cold and snow due to the Suns strength and lacklustre attempts at snow over for lowland England & Wales.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


I agree, even this far north snow will be thawed by the sun from the third week in February onwards unless it's exceptionally cold and I doubt that this year!


Even at the end of the very cold winter of 2009/10 we had a snowfall on the 2nd March on frozen ground but it had melted by the evening despite a dry day and max of only 2c.


IMO we have one month of winter left max and it ain't looking good.


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Gooner
23 January 2016 12:56:05

To re-iterate: latest GloSea5 ensembles have predominance of -ve temp anomalies after mid-Feb. Latest EC Monthly has neutral or -ve bias. Crucially, neither exhibit a +ve signal. 


From IF

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
23 January 2016 13:29:24


 


One of the changes, arguably the biggest one is +ve NAO in the winter months, the Amercans are not dependent on that.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Well, to be precise it's about where you live relative to large land masses and large expanses of ocean.  


The north west coast of the USA and west coast of British Columbia have similar winter weather to the British Isles and if it wasn't for the Rockies that influence would extend some way further inland.  As it is the Great Continental Divide separates the west coast maritime climate from the continental climate that exists east of the mountains.


Weather in winter in North America is still influenced by the behaviour of the jet stream and the PV.  You haev only to contrast this winter to date with a couple of years ago when the PV dropped down into North America for a time.


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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