On that basis a slug should be nigh on impossible to predict yet somehow doesn't seem to be .....

Disagree. PLENTY to shout about from me  But..... nothing to shout about regarding MUFC. The only shouting is #LVGOUT

A big fat anti-cyclone made of descending cold dense is a fairly stable system. Probably why Jupiter's Great Red Spot has been around for so long, being also an anticyclone (not a storm like most seem to think).

Actually I do need to ask that question because I want to know the answer, and as yet nobody, including the person to whom it was directed, has answered it. Is it certain? 100%?

I am learning to understand how certain types of forecast are more certain than others and the last paragraph of your answer helps me a little bit with that so thanks.

I am interested to know how sure this is- it's not about discrediting posters; if nobody can say for absolute certain, that's what I want to hear. If they can, I want to hear that too. Is it certain?

Forget SSWs, mountain torques, AO, NAO, El Nino...

This is what is required:

Surely seeding the clouds with a few megatons of this stuff in the vicinity of Iberia and the Azores should sort the problem!?

Thank you.

I would like to be able to, in the future, make such confident forecasts and to avoid plugging you with the next on the conveyor of questions( what signs, etc) I'll go and do a bit of homework now.

Bertie

It may (possibly) be the most likely outcome, but in our little island nothing is certain weather wise at 10 days out. Things can and do change quickly, we just don't know if it will or not. So no, absolutely not 100% certain. A week may be a long time in politics but in UK weather terms it is a comparative lifetime.

EPS mean (based on 00z run) at 216 hrs suggests a fairly zonal pattern with alternating temps. Beyond that, it does seem to suggest that a cooler, and possibly a more vigorous mP air mass could take hold.

Looks like the ever optimistic S Murr has thrown his towel in.

It's not 100% certain, far from it, but even I (snow-lover that I am) would concede the chances of anything other than a generally zonal flow for the next 10 days is unlikely - EPS and GEFS both show an overwhelmingly mild, zonal signal out to day 10 (and indeed beyond).

At least with the recent colder spell there had been signs from 10 days before hand of it coming - initially just a few runs but crucially every single set of GEFS and EPS contained a few runs showing a colder, more blocked scenario. This time around there's nada, zilch, zippo.

Even the EPS shows the coldest runs having highs of 4 or 5C down here:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

The models don't seem to be struggling at all this time around, the only thing that's varying is the phasing of the zonal sine-wave swings.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

The best that can be hoped for, for most of us, is the odd light frost or a day where it's a degree or so below average. Realistically I won't even be expecting that!

(NB, my comments relate to southern England. Further north, especially up where you are, things will be more interesting - although whether that's through wind or snow remains to be seen!)

There is still the ECM-32 / GLOSEA thing to cling to, that of falling temperatures by the middle of February...

I've got a clearer picture now- thanks. The graphs represent a great deal of consistency Retron, and Doc you confirmed my suspicion that we haven't gone that far in forecasting yet to be able to be sure at that range although I did wonder for a moment.

a high level of consistency between runs indicates confidence that the pattern will continue, not certainty as you appear to suggest.... It's more than possible that Gfs will pick up a different pattern a week or so ahead in a few runs' time... No idea if it will, or won't, but we've seen it before plenty of times.

ECM 0 hours

ECM 240 hours

^^^

Yep no change just never ending zonal crud, might get a bit of snow if you live on top of a mountain that's about it.

Very encouraging - a good omen that a dramatic pattern change will become apparent very soon! 

Er hello everyone? ECM is the best op run in ages!

Day 8 - decent amplification of the ridge into the western U.S. and Canada and the Azores High back in its homeland instead of extended into Europe.

Day 9 - the dive south in the jet over the U.S. has produced a decent LP system across the central states, while the Alaskan ridge has extended over the top and shoved that vortex lobe out of Canada. Meanwhile the main vortex is digging south across the UK and into Europe with the Azores High well and truly beaten.

Day 10 - the usual complications with shortwave development on the western flank of the vortex, but the whole thing is still digging south, improving our prospects of getting some decent cold air into the mix with time. As the strat. events join forces with the tropical forcing to support height rises edging into Greenland... need I say more.

Combined with the GEM run, it's been a promising set of 12z runs. Even GFS wasn't quite as bad as it has been. Bearing in mind that this is with respect to getting some decent cold air imports by maybe 10 days into the month, a number beyond the range of this ECM run.

Not according to Subzero , I do wonder what some people look at, ECM has things further South and looks as though things could be half decent further down the line

Don't worry, Maunder. That theory was exposed as the hoax that it was by winter 2009/10 alone. I also seem to remember a prediction being made that we'd never again see a month with a CET value of less than 3C. That notion was destroyed by December 2010 and March 2013, to name a couple of exceptionally cold months from recent times!

On topic: ECM 12z op seems to want to dig the jet stream a little further south than GFS is doing. As James noted, developments by day 10 on the ECM 12z over Greenland look potentially interesting. All is definitely not lost at this time.

Ian, if I remember correctly, (and as I mentioned in my post above), you made a prediction here some years back that we'd never again see a month which recorded a CET of less than 3C. It is only three years since we had a month which was technically a spring month which did exactly that. And that came on the back of a winter which, in the grand scheme of things, wasn't especially cold.

As far as the model output itself goes right now, if there is one thing the events of the past fortnight or so should have taught us, it it is that nothing should be assumed wrt developments more than a few days ahead. Back in December, I imagine that not many people would have thought that less than a week into New Year, the models would have been teasing us with the possibility of a major height rise over Greenland and a possible notable cold spell. While it dodn't turn out quite like that in reality, at least we have had something of a respite from the zonality.

Nah, to early to throw the towel in  we  haven't  go to the  "1947 didn't start until ......... "(etc etc)"  stage yet