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LeedsLad123
24 January 2016 11:33:20


 


 


I don't dispute any of the above - what I dispute is those that argue that nothing has changed.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


But I'm not sure what you're achieving by rambling on about it at every given opportunity. Our climate is warming, the frequency of snow is decreasing - has been for decades. People were well aware of it before the conception of the World Wide Web. Seriously, you don't need to derail every model output thread. Can you give it a rest?

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
24 January 2016 11:42:42
On topic now pleas. Further off-topic posts may be removed without warning.

There is plenty to discuss on topic. Flood risk and strong winds on Tuesday, followed by a snow chance in the northwest and then by next weekend the potential for a snowstorm in northern parts of the U.K. Perhaps the models are not showing a snowfest but the output is not without interest as the cold air tucks in behind the passing Lows - potentially a little more with each passing system as things become more meridional with hints of Atlantic ridging which would fit well with some outlooks.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
24 January 2016 11:54:46


 


But I'm not sure what you're achieving by rambling on about it at every given opportunity. Our climate is warming, the frequency of snow is decreasing - has been for decades. People were well aware of it before the conception of the World Wide Web. Seriously, you don't need to derail every model output thread. Can you give it a rest?


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Were those around in the 20's and 30's shouted " something has changed , it's all gone wrong"


I'm afraid there are too many things that can influence  our weather to pin any one thing down to a snowless winter or to a Winter that gives us a snowfest. Being stuck in the middle of a big pond is one of the biggest issues with the UK.


Our time will come again for Retron as well.


The 6z shows several members itching to hit -10 mark. Plenty of time to get cold weather to us IMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
24 January 2016 13:58:14

Embedded image permalink


We  really do miss out don't we , considering how far North we are we really should do better..................bloody Atlantic , why can't it freeze over

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Saint Snow
24 January 2016 14:03:55
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.gif 

Given the consistency it is definitely worth watching.


 


I've not been taking much notice of MO the past few days (was looking like a period of unwintery weather and I've been stupidly busy) so to see a chart like that is an eye-opener. I don't think it'd bring snow to MBY, but certainly upland areas in N England and much of Scotland would be in with a shout.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
24 January 2016 14:58:18

Weather type GFS Sa 30.01.2016 12 GMT


Weather type GFS Sa 30.01.2016 18 GMT


Weather type GFS Su 31.01.2016 00 GMT


Really J F F


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Andy Woodcock
24 January 2016 15:21:48

Hmmm, charts showing some cold zonality by next weekend, I love proper cold zonality as it delivers for Cumbria more than many easterlies.

However, I am not convinced as the MetO aren't really keen on the idea, will be interesting to see how the models move in the next few days but I would bank the GFS 06z if I could after the crud being pumped out during the last few days.

I am on a self imposed media blackout at the moment as I just can't stand reading or watching about yet another US big freeze and record snowfall I had enough of that last year and it's just winding me up.

US snowstorm, what US snowstorm.......

Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Solar Cycles
24 January 2016 16:31:46


Weather type GFS Sa 30.01.2016 12 GMT


Weather type GFS Sa 30.01.2016 18 GMT


Weather type GFS Su 31.01.2016 00 GMT


Really J F F


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Bank but sadly we all know the JFF is as close as we'll get.😁

Whether Idle
24 January 2016 16:45:29

Some north westerly fun (snow on hills) routine in FI from the 12z GFS op:



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
24 January 2016 16:46:25
Once again the GFS output paints a more interesting picture for the NW rather than the SE (or indeed here). On the subject of snow events there are a few places that could be looking at snow two or three times within the next ten days or so. The mile theme continues but so does the progressively cooler one, cold zonality of you like. Not great for many eastern or southern parts but potentially rather wintry for some northern and western ones.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
24 January 2016 16:49:50

This looks a little more interesting!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
some faraway beach
24 January 2016 16:51:32

You have to wait until 204 hrs for one of the attempts  of the Azores high to ridge northwards to succeed ...


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0


... but once it does it would feel a bit chilly as those strong winds start to come in from the north or north west:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Windy Willow
24 January 2016 16:54:09


This looks a little more interesting!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


It does!

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
doctormog
24 January 2016 16:56:22


This looks a little more interesting!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Wednesday and more so Saturday look potentially very interesting for you too ...at least it'll be dry here so no more flooding. 


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
24 January 2016 17:01:06


 


 


It does!


Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 


But I thought we had to wait until mid-Feb for anything wintry...


 


i


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Sinky1970
24 January 2016 17:12:24
Still nothing to get over-animated over, that little event on the 2nd of Feb last's a a whopping 2 days, so it look's like more hoping, watching & waiting.
Quantum
24 January 2016 17:57:17

Keep watching Greenland, the heights are really going up now, if we can get the 552 line there then things will get very interesting very quickly. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
24 January 2016 18:13:06

Fronts and approximate -5  850 isotherm on the UKMO 144


frontukmo

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
David M Porter
24 January 2016 18:25:53


Keep watching Greenland, the heights are really going up now, if we can get the 552 line there then things will get very interesting very quickly. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Let's hope so Q!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
24 January 2016 18:30:58

ECM12z looks seasonal next Sat:


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
24 January 2016 18:58:37

As is often the case ECM is less keen to amplify the Atlantic pattern than the GFS. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Hippydave
24 January 2016 19:13:19


As is often the case ECM is less keen to amplify the Atlantic pattern than the GFS. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's an intriguing NH view though:-



Really wouldn't be surprised for a potentish Northerly to develop a day or so after that.

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
David M Porter
24 January 2016 19:19:19


As is often the case ECM is less keen to amplify the Atlantic pattern than the GFS. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I have often though that the opposite has often been the case (GFS less keen on amplification for much of the time than ECM). Maybe that's just my perception though.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
24 January 2016 19:26:22

The ECM is excellent when looking at this in a broad sense.



The polar vortex is concentrated in the east rather than the west, while it is fizzling out over greenland. Meanwhile WAA in canada and alaska cause two ridges to appear which have a chance of joining over greenland down the line.


I see a consisent signal of lowering heights to the east and raising them to the west, still no greens and yellows yet but progress is being made. I note that the tropospheric vortex seems to actually be trying to mirror the stratospheric vortex which is centrered in the east. I don't think it really matters too much if we can't get rid of the low heights provided they are to the north of scandanavia rather than in the baffin.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gusty
24 January 2016 19:30:06


The ECM is excellent when looking at this in a broad sense.



The polar vortex is concentrated in the east rather than the west, while it is fizzling out over greenland. Meanwhile WAA in canada and alaska cause two ridges to appear which have a chance of joining over greenland down the line.


I see a consisent signal of lowering heights to the east and raising them to the west, still no greens and yellows yet but progress is being made. I note that the tropospheric vortex seems to actually be trying to mirror the stratospheric vortex which is centrered in the east. I don't think it really matters too much if we can't get rid of the low heights provided they are to the north of scandanavia rather than in the baffin.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Really ? With heights strong to our south we will struggle.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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