That's a day 10 chart even then it's still as flat as a pancake in our part of the World http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016012312/ECM1-240.GIF?23-0

I was commenting on what the models show not what they may show in 7-10 days time.

I do take your point David, however zonality began on Thursday and I suggested that the average zonal period in recent years was 4 weeks - to much furore - though I stated that this zonal period may not last that long.

The reasons for believing that have now gone and I think if you said to most people it will only last 3 weeks (Feb 11) they would take that.

Looking zonal out to day 10 at least, though not vigorously so. More just bog standard stuff but with the PV looking to shift a bit further east, I think this might increase the chance of cooler maritime air masses to increase in frequency thereafter, hopefully with somewhat more lively weather than what we have experienced of late.

I've not been posting much about the ECM of late because it's frankly uninteresting. There's just the odd glimmer now appearing.

Take for example the latest ECM-15 control run - it shows zonal mush out to day 15, but around day 12 there's a decently cold ridge which would give a widespread frost. By day 15 lows are starting to track south of the UK, raising the prospect of a potential snow event.

The most recent ECM-32 control run (from Thursday) also showed a cool-down around the same time (day 17).

I remember one day in late March 2013.. the 24th I believe.. we had a good 6 inches on the ground, significantly more where it drifted. The sun came out at around 11am, but only just managed to increase the temperature from below freezing to 1C, and the snow barely melted at all, even though it actually felt quite pleasant when the wind died down. The snow stuck around for the next few days and didn't melt until just before April - and even then, large drifts remained unhindered well into the month.

Given the air is cold enough, the snow will stick around - even in March, and definitely in February. Of course, this relies on getting a particularly cold air mass to begin with, but even in January, you can't expect the snow to stick around for more than a day or two in the UK, at low levels, unless it's particularly cold.. or cloudy. Just the nature of our climate - and quite frankly this is more pertinent if you live in southern coastal areas which are lucky to get any snow at all let alone days on end of the stuff (places like Southend get about 5 days of lying snow in an entire year on average -  that's around the same amount we get in a typical January or February). During the snowfall we had recently, it stayed cloudy all day with temps of 2C, and it pretty much all melted in 24 hours.

That's the norm! 

The Icelandic low and Azores high is the norm! +NAO is the norm for winter months. 

 From 1913

It's the textbook norm but as I showed earlier in the winter there has been a decrease in heights to the northwest and an increase over the continent since the 1950s. Of course there are exceptions and will continue to be so. The cold winters we had a few years ago provide an obvious example. Nonetheless, exceptions are as their name implies, exceptions.

Indeed, Brian, but such winters have always been the exception, so there is no change there. Our climate is warming - so the frequency of such cold spells has obviously and will obviously continue to decrease, as they will everywhere in the world - eastern US no exception. It wasn't just our corner of the world to experience a record-breaking warm December.

Not much of interest down here for the next 10 days. Further north it might be a bit different...

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the definition of positive or negative NAO related to the average pressure pattern, not the absolute? I.e. if pressure is higher than average over Iceland and lower than average over the Azores, you'd have a negative NAO even though the absolute pressure was still lower over Iceland?

Yup - a neutral NAO just means that the Azores High and Icelandic Low are at their normal strength (or more accurately that the pressure difference between the Azores and Iceland is normal, actual pressure readings could be lower in both or higher in both!)

The norm is, of course, a low near Iceland and a high near the Azores.

That is correct!

We know the average pressure pattern in the Atlantic is that above but it's only the average.

Before 1990 the average was often reversed in winter leading to cold weather but as Brian says the incidences of this happening has reduced substantially in the last 25 years, if you go back to the 1940's to 1960's Northern blocking was a very frequent occurance in winter so you can't say nothing has changed it has.

I am not convinced it's GW either as given the right Synoptics the weather is just as cold as was shown in December 2010.

Then again has GW enhanced the vortex in winter and pushed the Azores high north eastwards?

Andy

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A mild and moist SW flow will cover the UK today with troughs close to the NW leading to rain and drizzle at times clearing slowly SE tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 7000ft across NE Scotland today to 10000ft over the rest of the UK with no snowfall expected today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow remaining strong or very strong over the next few weeks. It's direction will settle West to East within the next few days, with a very strong core across Scotland gradually turning into a more undulating pattern around 50-55deg North in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows persistent winds from between SW and NW over the next few weeks with very mild air at first slowly reducing through the coming week as winds veer more Westerly. Rain at times will be commonplace, heavy at times in the North and West. In the second week the pattern remains similar though it may become rather chillier at times with winds veering more NW briefly in the showery periods behind depressions as they move away to the East ahead of the next one arriving soon after. Pressure is shown to remain High to the South throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is broadly similar to the Operational Run with a lot of windy and relatively mild weather especially at first with rain and showers at times, Some wintriness in the showers is possible in the North at times and a more definitive trend to colder periods outweighing milder ones develops through the second week with some frosts possible in the South close to high pressure. Then at the end of the run a shift of winds to the North sweeps cold air South to all with wintry showers and frosts at night for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are united in maintaining largely Westerly winds across the UK in two weeks time with the majority showing bands of rain crossing West to East under Low pressure near Iceland. Of the rest that show different solutions they just vary the influence of Low pressure and High pressure to the South with some output building High pressure further North across the Atlantic allowing a 40% pack to bring winds from more of a North or North-westerly source with wintry showers for many.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy working week to come and into next weekend with Westerly gales commonplace with alternating spells of milder conditions with heavy rain followed by colder more showery interludes with snow at times across the North especially towards next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show Westerly or SW winds as the default pattern across the UK this week with troughs moving East and then SE to often become slow moving near the South with rain and drizzle persistent in the South at times while the North sees colder conditions at times with wintry showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning too shows strong Westerly winds across all of the UK for it's duration this morning. The very mild SW flow of very early this week veers more westerly with time and eventually NW for a while bringing colder and more showery conditions when some snow may fall to quite low levels in the North. the pattern remains very fluid though and mild air never looks far away with rain at times on a westerly wind still prevalent even at 10 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some colder more showery conditions across the North at times and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where High pressure moves in close by at times. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very mobile with a broad westerly flow across the Atlantic, the UK and Europe bringing successive periods of rain and strong winds and relatively mild weather at times. With time though there is a painfully slow shift of emphasis towards less mild weather as the showery spells between the milder rain bands become more UK wide and although still quite brief some snowfall in the North could be problematic over the highest hills at times. By Day 10 the UK still lies in a Westerly flow with rain at times with a new Low advancing into the UK from the West and NW with rain and then wintry showers likely in the days that follow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure having shifted across to Scandinavia with an indication of less Low pressure to the NW and more High pressure down to the SW rather than South. The idea of West or NW winds and rather colder conditions than currently looks very real with sunshine and wintry showers in between brief spells of more prolonged rainfall by this time frame.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards slightly less mild conditions with time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to GFS at 88.6 pts then UKMO at 88.2 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.3 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.3 pts to 48.2 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  I am still trying hard to find anything to pin my hopes on in the quest for the search for meaningful wintry weather to affect the UK this Winter and again this morning the models refuse to budge outside of the generally Atlantic dominated pattern that has plagued us so much this Winter with winds between SW and NW throughout the runs from all models. We currently have a very mild and moist SW flow across the U that will last a day or so before less mild weather moves across early in the week. From thereon it's just a case of watching repetitive spells of wind and rain followed by brighter and in the North more showery conditions and as the temperatures fall behind the cold fronts a wintry element to the showers is likely up here. With pressure always High to the South there is little chance of anything that cold reaching these parts before the next mild surge of energy with wind and rain rushes East across all parts. Winds look likely to be very strong at times with gales or severe gales especially over the North and West. Then as we move into the second week little overall change seems likely with the same Atlantic domination to the weather as the coming week. The one slight difference is the eventual shift of the lowest pressure to move over towards Scandinavia which should allow rather more coherent colder interludes to sweep South at times through all areas though without the fall of pressure to the South near Spain this looks doomed to fail on a pattern changing scale. We need pressure to rise strongly across the Atlantic and the removal of the Southern European High pressure before we can look forward to any sustained Northerly influence to establish and while the Jet Stream remains as strong as it's predicted to be it looks far from obliging in the near future, patience is definitely a requisite.   

Next Update Monday January 25th 2016 from 09:00

And if you go back even further, the 1920s and 1930s had many mild winters and many of those winters produced record-breaking mild temperatures that still stand today in some places. That's climate at work! The fact that people on a weather forum of all places are surprised by this astounds me.

The 1961-1990 climatic period was actually quite cold - I know that in Scandinavia it was colder than the preceding 30-year averages. There was also a high occurrence of cold summers during that 30-year period. Maybe 1961-1990 was the anomaly, and we are simply back to where we are supposed to be.

Off-topic, but I imagine that the large El Nino event, the biggest one there's been since 1997/98 I believe, probably had at least something to do with the exceptionally mild December that us and other parts of the world endured.

As we know though, the weather has recently changed dramatically in NE USA and parts of northern Europe which up until Xmas had been almost as mild as us.

 One has to look no further than the recently set UK temperature  records,  that 9/10 temperature records set in the past few years are for warmth rather than cold.  Our climate is warming and the snowless amongst us (no proper falling snow IMBY since April 2013) will attest to the fact that winters - of which the current one is a good example - are getting less frosty, less snowy, milder, wetter and windier as the mean winter pressure gradient that Brian referred to, tightens.

Perhaps the need in people for some decent cold and snow increases in direct proportion to the warming trend?

Bang on

I couldn't agree more with that

On topic from here on, please. Discussion of whether or not our winters are getting generally milder & wetter can be continued either in a separate thread in this forum, or over in the climate forum.

Thanks.

Yep

IMO weather is swings and roundabouts in 1991 wasnt the Eastern side of the states having temps in the low to mid 20's as we were about to get buried by the Feb Easterly

The slightest hints of an Easterly

I was waiting for you to post this Kev ! However, whilst this is the most common set-up, it has become MUCH more prevalent over the last 28 years, and you only have to look at Retron's excellent thread which highlights the incredible change in our winter weather - especially when juxtaposed against the late seventies and much of the eighties.

You might also want to take a look further afield - places like Scandinavia and Eastern Russia have warmed up significantly in winter - more so than we have, so maybe the lack of cold easterlies can also be blamed on the lack of cold in general.. like I said earlier, it's a global phenomenon. Everywhere is getting warmer. This winter there was a substantial cold pool to our east but in 2013/2014 and 2014/2015, there really wasn't, as the source of our cold - Scandinavia and Eastern Russia - lacked any prolonged cold that season so there was nothing to tap into.

I don't dispute any of the above - what I dispute is those that argue that nothing has changed.